1. A Young Douglas-fir Plantation Growth Model for the Pacific Northwest Nick Vaughn University of Washington College of Forest Resources

2. Outline Current status of the model A review of the datasets Model details Predictive abilities Timeline

3. Current Status Have a model form for height growth –Base function with H 0 and SI as predictors –Modifiers for Density, Relative height and Veg Choosing between forms for DBH –Similar to the height growth function Can somewhat predict changes of Veg –Just started, still need to test

4. Data review Two datasets –SMC Type III (5/6 of the data) –RVMM project Different design, but similar measurements –All Conifers measured –Multiple measurements –Veg cover optically estimated on subplots –Both are missing a lot of data on Veg treatments

5. Data review Some differences –SMC data is from designed experiment –RVMM from real-world stands –Hardwoods treated different –RVMM data has only one remeasure (2-year) –RVMM veg measured in same year as trees

6. Data review Fitting model using data with associated Veg measures for each tree measurement Heights measured at both beginning and end of period Site Index computed on stands using last measurements, –Some < age suggested for such calculations (~10 years) Useable tree-growth observations –RVMM: 4591 –SMC: 24320

7. x RVMM Coastal x RVMM Cascade x SMC Type III

8. Data review Range of stand ages

9. Model Details Height growth model: where: is initial Height (ft) is Top-height of the plot (ft) is Site Index (Flewelling’s curves, base=30) is Trees per acre is plot Shrub cover (%) is 1-year Height growth (ft)

10. Model Details Height growth model – Veg. modifier: –At low Htop: More vegetation = less growth –As Htop increases, this effect goes to 0

11. Model Details Height growth model – Density modifier: –At low Htop: More density = more growth –As Htop increases, effect lessens. –After Htop reaches about 26 feet: More density = less growth

12. Model Details Height growth model – Relative height mod: –Relative height = height i /Htop –Lower relative ht. = less growth –As Htop and/or Density increase, this effect gets stronger

13. Model Details Diameter growth model: where: is initial Diameter (in) is Top-height of the plot (ft) is Site Index is Trees per acre is plot Shrub cover (%) is 1-year Diameter growth (in) is Basal Area per acre

14. Model Details Shrub vegetation dynamics model: where: is initial Shrub Vegetation cover (%) is Top-height of the plot (ft) is Site Index is Trees per acre is Basal Area per acre is 1-year Veg cover change (%)

15. Predictive Abilities Height growth model: R 2 = 0.578

16. Predictive Abilities Diameter growth model: R 2 = 0.590

17. Predictive Abilities

24. Timeline “Finish” modelling by June –Done = satisfied with results Write-up done and defend by August Coding is already underway.

25. Questions?