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The Ups and Downs, Ins and Outs of Transportation 10 th Annual Rocky Mountain Commercial Real Estate Expo November 12, 2004
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Current State of The Airline Industry
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Who’s in Charge of the Airlines? “The industry doesn’t attract the most able minds in the business world…Who in their right mind would work for an airline?” Sam Addoms, Chairman – Frontier Airlines Denver Post (September 19, 2004)
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Historical “Earnings” of the Airline Industry Net Loss for 2001-2003 Exceeded Net Profit for Previous 5 Years Notes:1)2001 and 2002 include Federal Compensation remitted to carriers under P.L. 107-42 (roughly $5B pre-tax over two calendar years) 2)2003 includes Federal reimbursements (roughly $2.3B pre-tax) for security costs imposed and estimates for concessions, offset by SARS and Iraqi War $5.4 $2.8 ($13.1) $23.0 ($8.3) ($11.3) ($3.6) ($5.1) ($12.4) ($30.0) ($20.0) ($10.0) $0.0 $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 Net Profit/Loss ($Billions) 1947-781979-891990-941995-00200120022003Total
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Industry Overview “We believe the next 12 months will see more change in the industry than the past three years combined.” Morgan Stanley – September 7, 2004 “High oil prices will only accelerate the inevitable – i.e. an industry restructuring – and we believe some carriers will be forced to retrench further or may even go out of business.” Merrill Lynch – September 8, 2004 Delta: Announced restructuring on September 8, 2004 — Dallas/Ft. Worth flights to be reduced from 254 flights to 21 — Song to increase from 36 to 48 aircraft United: Continues to operate in bankruptcy and is seeking pension relief US Airways: Seeking further concessions; second bankruptcy filing ATA: Announced bankruptcy and likely Chapter 7
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Trends...where are we heading
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Distribution
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Trends...where are we heading
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As Colorado Grows... Forecasted Population for Colorado 2004 - 2030 4.6 Million 7.2 Million
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... So Must Air Service 61% 64% Average Daily Departures Non-Stop Markets Served Denver International Airport
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Growing Carrier with Proven Track Record Commenced operations in 1994 Well-positioned at Denver International Airport Over 6.0 million passengers carried in last twelve months Increased market share at DIA by 20% year over year for the twelve months ended August 2004 Significant growth opportunities Frontier Market Share At Denver International Airport (%) August Celebrated our Tenth Anniversary
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Frontier Growth in Denver Markets Albuquerque Atlanta Austin Chicago Dallas/Ft. Worth El Paso Ft. Meyers Kansas City Las Vegas Minneapolis New Orleans Oklahoma City Phoenix San Diego San Francisco San Jose Seattle St. Louis Tucson Increased Frontier Frequencies Since January 2004
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Frontier Growth in Denver April 2004 2 daily non-stops between Denver and Dulles May 2004 New non-stop between Denver and Anchorage May 2004 2 daily non-stops between Denver and Philadelphia and one “Red-eye” between Los Angeles and Philadelphia May 2004 2 daily non-stops between Denver and both Billings, MT, and Spokane, WA. June 2004 2 daily non-stops between Denver and Nashville July 20042 Additional non-stops between Denver and Washington DC’s Ronald Reagan Airport October 2004 2 daily non-stops between Denver and Little Rock, AK
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Frontier Airlines’ Route Map
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The Benefits of Competition Low Fare Airlines Penetration is Growing and Diversifying Network Overlap – 60%; Share in Top Domestic Markets – 30%
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Frontier’s Focus on Markets for Colorado Los Angeles Phoenix Dallas/Ft. Worth Chicago/O’Hare Las Vegas Atlanta San Francisco Seattle/Tacoma Minneapolis NY/LaGuardia Houston Newark Orlando Boston San Diego Washington DC (Dulles) Detroit Ft. Lauderdale Salt Lake City Portland The Top Travel Destinations to/from Denver Philadelphia Baltimore Chicago/Midway Orange County Kansas City San Jose Tampa St. Louis Washington DC (Reagan) Sacramento Frontier Serves 26 of Denver’s Top 30 Travel Destinations
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Frontier Sets the Pricing Standard in Denver Average Fare from Denver Quarter Ending December 2003 -31%-19%-24%-31%-32%
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Impact of Increased Competition…Lower Fares LCC Growth at Denver International Airport And Effect on Fares Departures Seats Average Fares: Top 50 Markets Other Markets Total 2001 10.5% 12.4% $188 $192 $189 2002 15.0% 16.8% $163 $168 $164 2003 17.5% 19.8% $144 $153 $145 03 v 01 65.3% 51.7% -23.5% -20.1% -22.9%
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Fleet Plan in Place to Support Colorado Growth Note: Frontier’s Fiscal Year Ends March 31 Table excludes an additional 23 Airbus purchase rights 737-200737-300A319/A318CRJ-700 9.0 AAGR
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What does the future hold...
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The New Air Traffic Growth Belts
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What does the future hold... Potentially Service Blighted Regions
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Why are Airports, Airlines and Frontier Important to Real Estate? National Economic Impact Aviation Facilitates Economic Growth — 2000 GDP Contribution: $900B or 9% of GDP Employment — Job Contribution: 11MM or 7% of US Employment — Half of Post-9/11 U.S. Job Loss is Aviation and Travel Related Investments — From 2000 to 2012: Investments in Airports could mean and additional $31B for the US Economy
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Why are Airports, Airlines and Frontier Important to Real Estate? Jobs represent the total number of individuals employed. A job may represent either a full- or part-time position. Consequently, an airport with 10 jobs may have two full-time and eight part-time employees. Wages are the full payroll expended for employees, including all taxes and benefits. Economic Activity represents business sales. For government or non- profit entities, economic activity represents their annual budget. For visitor spending, economic activity represents visitor expenditures. Jobs:280,156 Wages:$9.8B Economic Activity: $23.5B State of Colorado Economic Impact
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Why are Airports, Airlines and Frontier Important to Real Estate? 20042008 Estimated Total Aircraft39 + 562 + 9 Travelers to Colorado on Frontier3.9MM6.7MM Cities Served4060 Daily Departures102190 Employees3,6006,000 Colorado Wages & Salaries$75.2MM$140.0MM Payments to DIA$22.0MM$40.0MM Colorado Taxes$3.5MM$5.4MM City/County of Denver Taxes$2.2MM$4.0MM Total Infusion to Colorado$102.9MM$189.4MM
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1. AIRLINES, AIRPORTS, AND FRONTIER ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS 2. THEY ARE ECONOMIC BELLWEATHERS THAT SIGNIFY GOOD TIMES AND BAD 3. GOOD PREDICTORS FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT (the more air travel access, the more development is likely) 4. THEY OFFER EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES ALL BY THEMSELVES (new facilities to support airline growth, DIA Partnership/NE Corridor, physical build-outs by airlines such as maintenance hangars) 5. CITIES THAT HAVE GOOD AIR SERVICE HAVE AN ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT ADVANTAGE—attracts business, money and consumers. Why are Airports, Airlines and Frontier Important to Real Estate? BECAUSE:
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1. Airport expansions to handle capacity growth 2. New airline facilities (although in Denver, Frontier is the only one looking at new facilities) 3. Land development near non-hub, secondary airports 4. Continued development of the NE Corridor spurred by on-going growth of DIA 5. Sustained airport growth will continue to build the Colorado/Denver economies offering new opportunities for development during next population boom. Why are Airports, Airlines and Frontier Important to Real Estate? Opportunities:
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