1. Performance of high resolution global model over La Plata Basin Mario N. Nuñez CIMA-DCAO CONICET / UBA UMI IFAECI 2nd Meeting Buenos Aires, Argentina April 25-27, 2011

2. Ongoing research in the climate of Southern South America Mario N. Nuñez CIMA-DCAO CONICET / UBA UMI IFAECI 2nd Meeting Buenos Aires, Argentina April 25-27, 2011

3. Performance of high resolution global model over La Plata Basin Objective: To provide an evaluation of a present climate simulation over La Plata Basin and to understand the futures climate changes. Josefina Blazquez and Mario Nuñez

4.  Global Model: MRI/JMA  Resolution: 20 km and 60 km (3 members) Period: 1979-2003 Initial condition: Observed SST (Rayner et al. 2003)

5. PRELIMINARY RESULTS

8. Precipitación (mm/day)

10. Regional Climate Change Simulations over Southern South America with the MM5/CIMA model forced by the global HadAM3H model María Fernanda Cabré, Mario Nuñez and Silvina Solman

11. We present an analysis of a regional climate change simulation over southern South America. The MM5/CIMA model was forced by the global atmospheric model HadAM3H. 20 years for the present climate(1970-1999). 20 years for the future climate(2080-2099).

12. PRELIMINARY RESULTS

13. Precipitation (mm/day). Present-Day climate 1970-1999 Fig 1 b) Average precipitation for present from the regional model MM5 (left panels) and from observations CRU (right panels)

14. Mean Temperature (ºC) Fig 2 b) Seasonal mean of surface air temperature for present from the regional model MM5 (left panels) and from observations CRU (right panels)

15. Precipitation Changes (mm/day) SRES A2 (2080-2099) Fig 3 Precipitation seasonal changes from regional model MM5

16. Mean Temperature Changes (ºC) SRES A2 (2080-2099) Fig 4 Mean Temperature seasonal changes from regional model MM5

17. The regional water cycle and surface energy processes of the La Plata basin H. Berbery, A. Rolla and M. Nuñez  Our particular interest is the evaluation of the annual cycle of the hydrological cycle components.  We performed numerical experiments using the HRLDAS (High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System) 3.2 model.  The terrestrial water cycle and all energy related computations were analyzed here using a 26-year long (1980 to 2006) data set.

18. PRELIMINARY RESULTS

25. ENERGY BALANCE HRLDAS 3.2 UPPYLPUY LPB sw (short wave)195,56199,30193,10184,78195,15 lw (long wave)380,33380,07351,15358,80371,82 hfx (latent heat flux)18,2331,0726,995,8823,27 qfx (sensible heat flux)87,3371,3367,9089,7677,77 grdflx (soil heat flux)-0,34-0,48-0,36-0,37-0,40 fdown (radiation forcing)520,16514,37488,26490,93508,07 skintemp (skin temperature)296,25296,84291,93292,54295,16 albedx (Albedo)0,280,330,290,280,30 embrd (emiss)0,950,930,95 0,94 fdown=sw*(1-albed)+lw520,16514,37488,26490,93508,07 solnet=SW*(1.-ALBEDX) 139,824134,298137,108132,129136,249 v1:5.67051E-08*embrd*skintemp^4413,42410,00391,01393,80405,23 Res1=fdown-hfx-qfx+grdflx-v1 0,841,482,001,111,40 Res2=( solnet + lwdn ) - sheat + ssoil - eta - ( emissi * STBOLT * (t1x**4) ) 0,841,482,001,111,40 NOAHRES=( solnet + lwdn ) - sheat + ssoil - eta - ( emissi * STBOLT * (t1x**4) ) - flx1 - flx2 - flx3 -0,20-0,27-0,21-0,14-0,22

26. WATER BALANCEUPPYLPUY LPB precipitation129,3386,4475,56131,97102,87 evapotranspiration91,7774,9471,3894,3381,72 runoff37,7111,754,3737,7921,35 dSM/dt-0,06-0,18-0,15-0,05-0,12 Res=pp-evt-rnoff-(dSM/dt) -0,09-0,07-0,04-0,11 -0,08

27. Some applications… Drought Indexes Period 1980-2006. Meteorological (top), hydrological (center) and agricultural drought (botton).

28. We are now searching for observations, mainly, of soil moisture, to validate the model results

29. Observational and Regional Modeling in the Central Andes region Maximiliano 1 Viale and Mario Nuñez 1 IANIGLA, CONICET

32. Precipitation forecasts using ETA model over the Andes

33. WRF forced by ERA Interim (CLARIS Project) C. Zotelo, H. Berbery, A. Rolla and M. Nuñez

34. Comparación Precipitación NCEP WRF CRU REAL GRILLADO 1X1

35. Thank you