1. ECOOP WP11 ENSEMBLE AND SUPER-ENSEMBLE FORECASTING (TO UPGRADE EXISTING REGIONAL AND COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS)

2. MOTIVATION THE PREDICTABILITY LIMIT OF OCEAN WEATHER AND SEA LEVEL IS SHORT –LIMITS FOR SHORT TERM FORECASTS ARE SET BY 1) ATMOSPHERIC FORCING INACCURACY (intrinsic pred. lim.) 2) INITIAL/LATERAL B. C. INACCURACY (intrinsic pred. lim) 3) MODEL INAPPROPRIATE REPRESENTATION OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES (uncertainity of dyn. eq.) GIVE THE CORRECT INFORMATION TO USERS WITH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF FORECAST (‘ERROR BARS’) ADVANCE THE UNDERSTANDING OF CAUSES OF ERRORS IN THE REGIONAL/COASTAL FORECAST SYSTEMS

3. PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE METEOROLOGY –Ensemble methods for global ten days forecasts is now done routinely –Meteo LAM ensemble forecasts are also done routinely by some services around Europe –Ensemble forecasts are done for seasonal forecasts (El Nino) –Multi-model ensemble forecast shown to be better for extended range forecast

4. Ensemble forecasting for El Nino: changes in the initial SST of forecast 1996-1997 El Nino event

5. DEMETER results: multi-model estimation PrecipitationAnomalyCorrelation in the tropics and for JJA Red is ensemble mean of different models

6. WP11 Targeted products and services Targeted ECOOP PRODUCTS improvement –Currents, temperature, salinity forecasts IN DEMONSTRATION AREAS –Sea level forecasts (storm surge) IN DEMONSTRATION AREAS –Biochemical state variables ?? Targeted ECOOP SERVICES that will be impacted –Storm surge –Oıl spıll –Search and rescue –Coastal protectıon –Oxygen depletıon ??? –HABs ???

7. What is a ‘demonstration area’? It is a geographical area with an existing forecasting system for the given ECOOP basic products where we would like to develop the ensemble forecasting methods Where to show the benefit for one of the many impacted services Where to show the functioning of the upgraded system for a Target Demonstration Period-TDP to show pre-operationality

8. WP11 Specific Objectives Develop and implement new technologies for ensemble forecasts for currents and storm surges Develop and implement methodologies for multi-model ensemble forecasting (super- ensemble) Develop these technologies/methodologies so as to cast uncertainties in probabilistic terms for services

9. WP11 tasks Task 11.1 Ensemble experiments –Subtask 11.1.1 Med Sea currents –Subtask 11.1.2 N-W shelf storm surge –Subtask 11.1.3 ????biochemistry??? –This task will develop and implement real time 3-10 days ensemble forecasting methods/technology by perturbing atmospheric forcing and initial/lateral boundary conditions and will evaluate the quality of ECOOP products Task 11.2 Super-ensemble experiments –Subtask 11.2.1 Med area currents –Subtask 11.2.2 ???? –This task will develop the super-ensemble methods to meld information from overlapping existing forecasting systems to create a multi-model estimate and will evaluate the quality of the resulting ECOOP products

10. WP11 Tasks (cont.) Task 11.3 TDP exercise –This task will show for six months the production of super-ensemble and ensemble forecasts in the demonstration areas and will evaluate the quality of the products internally (scientific validation) Task 11.4 Impact of ensemble forecasts on services –This task will connect the TDP exercise products with final services for Oıl spıll Oxygen depletıon ??? HABs ???? Coastal protectıon Search and rescue In order to show benefit of ensemble methodology in regional/coastal forecasting (end-user evaluation) Task 11.5 Presentation of ensemble forecast on ECOOP portal –This task will develop the relevant probability maps for the ECOOP products to be presented in the ECOOP portal (WP5) with particular attention to give ‘correct’ information to end-users

11. WP11 Main deliverables Three-four regional/coastal operational systems for currents and storm surges upgraded to do ensemble and super- ensemble forecasts Probability characteristics of ECOOP products for several European areas Improved services for ECOOP

12. Comment: Physical data assimilation improvements? It is taken out of here because too limited (do not need everywhere ensemble to ameliorate data assimilation) But it should go somewhere together with the upgrade and implementation in existing systems of data assimilation systems