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Fai Yeung VP APAC Sales & Marketing
Trends of Programmable Logic Industry and Its Growth in Asia-Pacific PROFIT Dec 22, 2009 Fai Yeung VP APAC Sales & Marketing
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Programmable Imperative!
Common Challenges Programmable Imperative! “Differentiate or Die” Accelerated Time to Market “Fickle Market Demands Shorter Life Cycle Spiraling Complexity Capped Engineering Budgets Green Lowest TCO 2
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The Time for Programmables is Now!
Market Forces Programmable Imperative! Financial Constraints Technology Innovation When you look at the these three converging factors of market pressures, financial pressures, and where technology is headed, we see that we have a “perfect storm” of opportunity. As our customers need to reduce their development costs and respond faster to demands of their markets, we see a strong need for solutions which are more flexible and can allow for rapid and cost-effective change. Flexible programmability is an absolute must. Customers are seeing capped engineering budgets Complexity is spiralling with more sophisticated products and it is becoming less viable to design from scratch. Product lifecycles are becoming shorter which gives customers less development time (e.e. consumer product lifecycles used to be an average 3-5 years, now less than a year) Market demands are becoming fickle and difficult to predict – demands change as products are being designed. In high volume consumer applications, they cannot predict requirements – they are designing core sets of capabilities, then adding differentiated capabilities to the core using FPGA’s so they can address numerous markets All of these are issues that can be addressed with programmable logic. This shift in dynamics creates the opportunity for what we call the “programmable imperative.” We have been talking for 25 years about this kind of “programmable imperative,” but it is only now that the conditions have to come to exist that make it a reality (evolution per Moore’s Law; ability to incorporate more functions and features in smaller nodes; price pressures for developing ASICs and ASSPs). These three gating factors have never converged before in the same way – the time for FPGA’s is now, and that’s what makes the future so exciting for Xilinx. 3
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Programmable Imperative!
Market Forces Market Forces Programmable Imperative! Financial Constraints Technology Innovation When you look at the these three converging factors of market pressures, financial pressures, and where technology is headed, we see that we have a “perfect storm” of opportunity. As our customers need to reduce their development costs and respond faster to demands of their markets, we see a strong need for solutions which are more flexible and can allow for rapid and cost-effective change. Flexible programmability is an absolute must. Customers are seeing capped engineering budgets Complexity is spiralling with more sophisticated products and it is becoming less viable to design from scratch. Product lifecycles are becoming shorter which gives customers less development time (e.e. consumer product lifecycles used to be an average 3-5 years, now less than a year) Market demands are becoming fickle and difficult to predict – demands change as products are being designed. In high volume consumer applications, they cannot predict requirements – they are designing core sets of capabilities, then adding differentiated capabilities to the core using FPGA’s so they can address numerous markets All of these are issues that can be addressed with programmable logic. This shift in dynamics creates the opportunity for what we call the “programmable imperative.” We have been talking for 25 years about this kind of “programmable imperative,” but it is only now that the conditions have to come to exist that make it a reality (evolution per Moore’s Law; ability to incorporate more functions and features in smaller nodes; price pressures for developing ASICs and ASSPs). These three gating factors have never converged before in the same way – the time for FPGA’s is now, and that’s what makes the future so exciting for Xilinx. 4
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Time-to-market and flexibility: Key attributes for success
Key Market Trends Rapid consumer-driven change Hyper-connectivity evolving standards, market req’ts, short lifecycles- flexibility is key Fickle, fragmented markets Time-to-market and flexibility: Key attributes for success 5 5
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Financial Constraints
Market Forces Programmable Imperative! Technology Drivers Financial Constraints When you look at the these three converging factors of market pressures, financial pressures, and where technology is headed, we see that we have a “perfect storm” of opportunity. As our customers need to reduce their development costs and respond faster to demands of their markets, we see a strong need for solutions which are more flexible and can allow for rapid and cost-effective change. Flexible programmability is an absolute must. Customers are seeing capped engineering budgets Complexity is spiralling with more sophisticated products and it is becoming less viable to design from scratch. Product lifecycles are becoming shorter which gives customers less development time (e.e. consumer product lifecycles used to be an average 3-5 years, now less than a year) Market demands are becoming fickle and difficult to predict – demands change as products are being designed. In high volume consumer applications, they cannot predict requirements – they are designing core sets of capabilities, then adding differentiated capabilities to the core using FPGA’s so they can address numerous markets All of these are issues that can be addressed with programmable logic. This shift in dynamics creates the opportunity for what we call the “programmable imperative.” We have been talking for 25 years about this kind of “programmable imperative,” but it is only now that the conditions have to come to exist that make it a reality (evolution per Moore’s Law; ability to incorporate more functions and features in smaller nodes; price pressures for developing ASICs and ASSPs). These three gating factors have never converged before in the same way – the time for FPGA’s is now, and that’s what makes the future so exciting for Xilinx. 6
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Continued Rise of ASIC/ASSP Development Costs
Rising costs at advanced process nodes ($M) IC Cost by Process Node $100M $61M $34M Cost of development is becoming prohibitively expensive for ASSP’s as we move to new process nodes This means that it only makes sense for them to be produced for mass markets. This is simple economics – manufacturers cannot get an ROI from small volume markets. Broadcom, Qualcomm and others are focusing on a small set of extremely high volume applications because they cannot afford to play more broadly e.g. if it takes $100M to develop a standard product for a specific market, it needs to be a $1bn market in order to justify the investment (given that you won’t capture an entire market with your product) Customers are seeking to provide more diverse solutions that cannot be addressed by standard products. This need for hardware differentiation is going to cause the demand for FPGA’s to grow Can we use the Chartered/Synopsys numbers and foil: development costs are higher than this. The minimum market size is probably understated $24M $16.1M $10.1M Process Nodes (nm) Source: Chartered and Synopsys 7 7
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WW ASIC Design Starts 22% Decline in 2009
"More likely, we will see a large percentage of these questionable designs not hit any production and die a slow death by indefinite push-outs” Bryan Lewis, Gartner Analyst
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Tier 1 Semiconductor Company Challenges
Manufacturing transition: Fabbed Fablite Fabless 300mm Fab Costs: 45nm = $3B 32nm - $10B Target market rationalization and consolidation Pursuing ultra high volume applications Source: GSA
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Tier 2 ASSP Vendor Challenges
Narrow Focus to high volume applications ($M) IC Cost by Process Node $100M $500 $400 $61M $300 $34M Minimum Market Size ($M) $200 $24M $16.1M $100 $10.1M Cost of development is becoming prohibitively expensive for ASSP’s as we move to new process nodes This means that it only makes sense for them to be produced for mass markets. This is simple economics – manufacturers cannot get an ROI from small volume markets. Broadcom, Qualcomm and others are focusing on a small set of extremely high volume applications because they cannot afford to play more broadly e.g. if it takes $100M to develop a standard product for a specific market, it needs to be a $1bn market in order to justify the investment (given that you won’t capture an entire market with your product) Customers are seeking to provide more diverse solutions that cannot be addressed by standard products. This need for hardware differentiation is going to cause the demand for FPGA’s to grow Can we use the Chartered/Synopsys numbers and foil: development costs are higher than this. The minimum market size is probably understated Process Nodes (nm) Profitability and business model under severe pressure 29 /115 companies followed by GSA, have market cap < cash Source: Chartered and Synopsys 10 10 10
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Tier 3 Startup Challenges: Funding has Vanished
Round-A funding (dollar amount) declined 82% from 2000 and 2007 *Through Q308, only 2 chip companies received Round-A funding, totaling $12M Source: GSA
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What FPGA Means to Systems Customers
Do more with less Improve engineering productivity Reduce risk profile Avoid big bets on ASIC design starts Focus on core competencies Differentiate or die 12 12
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FPGA Technology Innovation
Market Forces Programmable Imperative! Financial Constraints Technology Innovation Last but not least- are changes to FPGA technology that enable broader applicability- in order to capitalize on this growing application gap we need to reduce the cost and power, increase the bandwidth/speed and make FPGAs more application-ready so customers can quickly adapt to their needs- today we are announcing major steps in all 4 areas… Cost Power Bandwidth Application-ready 13
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Introducing Virtex-6 and Spartan-6 FPGA Families
Deliver up to 60% lower system cost Cut power consumption by 65% Reduce development time by 50% Achieve over 1Tbps IO bandwidth Delivering customer breakthrough performance, power and cost benefits to push programmability beyond the tipping point 40nm/45nm in production CY10 Next gen technology coming 14
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The Growing ASIC/ASSP Application Gap
Market Size ASIC / ASSP Class Applications Underserved Applications This has created an application gap where ASSPs aren’t available and ASICs aren’t cost effective Traditional FPGA Class Applications Application Market Segments + 100s More 15
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Xilinx Growth Opportunity Ahead
ASIC New Growth ASSP We have an opportunity to take a slice from the traditional ASIC and ASSP markets with our FPGA products. If other chips are highly expensive to produce, and cannot be easily changed if a shift in the market breeds a new set of requirements, then this opens the path for flexibility and programmability – which is the opportunity for FPGA’s. It is a well documented trend that the number of ASICs is continuing to drop. They are becoming more targeted to high volume applications e.g. video games and cellphones New applications are emerging that can be serviced by FPGA’s – today they are serviced by ASICs or ASSPs – our aim is to take an ever increasing slice of this $100bn market Source: iSuppli, March 2008 16 16
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APAC Growth Trend 3G/LTE Wired Industrial/Scientific Medical Consumer
Green IT Surveillance Intelligent Video Video Analytics Cloud Computing Security Infrastructure 17
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The future of FPGA has never been brighter
Technology causes ASSP development costs continue to rise as it lowers the power and cost of FPGA – Advantage FPGA No Differentiation with ASSP – Advantage FPGA Multi- Core is non-deterministic and very difficult to program, FPGA tools are getting faster and easier ( C to Gates) – Advantage FPGA Multi-Core may drive more FPGA deployment (acceleration and load leveling) - Advantage FPGA DSP’s need accelerators and lag the market need – Advantage FPGA 18
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The Time for Programmables is Now!
Market Forces Important Programmable Imperative! Financial Constraints Technology Innovation Summarize each force- M So now is the time for the programmable imperative Economy makes it urgent Market needs make it important Targeted Design Platforms with new silicon families make it possible arket: Change, connectivity, Urgent Possible 19
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Thank You 20
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Semiconductors Power the Information Revolution
Integrated Circuit by Jack Kilby Moore’s Law by Gordon Moore FPGA by Ross Freeman FPGA inventor Xilinx Co-Founder 2009 National Inventors Hall of Fame 21
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Xilinx Historic Revenue
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Xilinx Revenue Breakdown Q3 Calendar Year 2009
Revenue by Geography Revenue by End Market Consumer & Auto Asia Pacific Data Processing Japan Industrial & Other Europe Here’s a breakdown of our customers by end market segment. The bulk of our revenues come from the communications sector which includes both the networking and telecommunications market. Recently, Xilinx has made a large push into new end markets such as Consumer (flat panels, set top boxes) and Automotive (telematics). Geographically, most of our customers are based in North America. However, we expect Asia Pacific to be the fastest growing region at Xilinx over the next several years due to a combination of contract manufacturing growth in region (from other regions) along with large revenue increases in emerging countries such as China. North America Communications Source: Xilinx, Inc. 5
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25 Years of Xilinx Great assets: foundation for a bright future
Cisco Great key customer relationships Huawei Sony Harman Becker Communications Industrial and Other Consumer and Automotive Data processing Diversified customers and markets So at the time of our 25th anniversary Xilinx is a strong company and well positioned to capitalize on the programmable imperative. Excellent financial scorecard 50% Market Share Cash & Investments $2B Operating Cash Flow: $581M Financial Stability 24 24
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