1. BARACK OBAMA AND THE POLITICS OF HOPE (?)

2. RATIONALES FOR ALTERNATIVES U.S. loss of “soft power” Continuing frustration in Latin America Importance of Latin America to U.S. Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election

3. WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN POLICY? Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt –Or Self-centered national interest.

4. WHAT WOULD IT TAKE? 1. Election of a president with personal commitment to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin America. 2. Events within region that demand U.S. attention— e.g., spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist attack. 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin America—e.g., “clash of civilizations.” 4. Demographic and political changes within the United States.

5. And the outlook is…..?

6. THE OBAMA RECORD Exaggerated expectations Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Afghanistan) Hesitant beginnings (Trinidad & Tobago ≠ Cairo) Nuanced view of Latin America

7. CURRENT ISSUES Honduras: questionable commitment to democracy Colombia: military bases Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo Mexico: drug wars Points of tension: –Venezuela –Bolivia –“Pink tide” in general

8. HONDURAS 2005-06 Manuel Zelaya elected 2008Joins ALBA (and Hugo Chávez) 2009: 6/28 Ousted, Roberto Micheletti takes power 7/05Honduras suspended by OAS 09MZ returns to Honduras 11/29Porfirio Lobo elected (56.6% vote) 2010: JanMZ exile in Dominican Republic JulyU.S. urges readmission to OAS Aug Mexico, Chile extend recognition

9. BRAZIL Differences over Honduras, Cuba, Chávez Ties to Iran, diplomatic initiatives Trade: WTO suit, agricultural protectionism (e.g. sugar, oranges, ethanol) Perceptions of power, relationship Shift from Lula to Dilma Rousseff?

10. CUBA (2011) Restores Clinton emphasis on “people to people” contacts Embargo exemptions for humanitarian, religious, academic purposes More flights (chartered) Remittances of $500 per quarter Context: –Private market in Cuba, reduced role of state –Emergence of civil society –Republican takeover of House of Representatives –New generation of Cuban-Americans

11. USA and Latin America: Comparative and Historical Perspective _________Latin America as Priority___________ ______ Low _______ _______ High _____ Operational Mode for U.S. ____ Unilateral Ad hoc Systematic imposition intervention (Bush 2001-09) (Reagan 1981-89) ________________________ __________________ Intermittent, Consistent, Multilateral low-level high-level diplomacy engagement (Clinton 1993-2000) (Kennedy 1961-63) ____________________________________________________________

12. The End.