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Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

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Presentation on theme: "Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center."— Presentation transcript:

1 Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center

2 Topics for Presentation  ESP and Water Supply Forecast Overview  Recap of WY 2007 Water Supply and ESP Forecasts  2008 Volumetric Streamflow Outlook  ESP Water Supply Forecasts  ESP with CPC precipitation and temperature shifts applied  ESP weighting La Nina years only

3 NWRFC Forecasting Models  Statistical Water Supply  Seasonal Volumetric Forecasts Regression techniquesRegression techniques 168 forecast locations168 forecast locations Coordinated forecasts with NRCS, BOR, COE, and BCHydroCoordinated forecasts with NRCS, BOR, COE, and BCHydro  NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS)  Short, Medium, and Longterm capabilities Generates output in deterministic AND probabilistic (ESP) formatsGenerates output in deterministic AND probabilistic (ESP) formats Variable Outputs for ESPVariable Outputs for ESP

4 Statistical Water Suppy Combined Index: Observed Precip Observed Snow Observed Runoff Future Precip

5 Snow Model Soil Moisture/Runoff Consumptive Use River Routing Reservoir Regulation Flow and Stage Forecasts NWS River Forecast System Model Components (simplified) Rain Plus Snow Melt

6 NWS River Forecast System Day 10 Current time Observed Forecast

7 Exceedance probability plot of flow volumes = area under each trace (Jan-Jul period) 50% Value (most expected) is comparable to WS forecasts Example showing 42 streamflow traces for The Columbia River at The Dalles, OR Runtime conditions: 9/13/2004 Analysis period: 1/1/2005-8/1/2005 Traces represent ensemble of possible river flows (Jan-Jul) Median Forecast (most expected) ESP

8 Water Year 2007 Recap  Comparison of ESP and Water Supply Forecast volumes against observed volume  LUCI1 Lucky Peak Reservoir Unregulated Inflow  PLDI1 Palisades Reservoir Unregulated Inflow

9 2007 WS Forecast Recap ESP vs WSF Jan-Jul Comparison

10 2007 WS Forecast Recap ESP vs WSF Jan-Jul Comparison

11 Spring Outlook - 2008  Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)  Driven by: Antecedent Snow/Soil Moisture 10 day Precip and Temp Forecast  Updated weekly  Capability of including climate forecasts/signals  With CPC temperature and precipitation shifts  Post-processing using La Nina year weighting  Not included in current published versions

12 Volume Forecasts Available at www.nwrfc.noaa.gov Min/Mean/Max 441/1778/3200 % of mean 78% 43% 138%

13 Volume Forecasts Available at www.nwrfc.noaa.gov April-July Min/Mean/Max 1089/3331/5621 % of mean 83% % of mean: 42% 117%

14 ESP Pre-Adjustment Technique CPC Outlooks are used to shift temperature and precipitation distribution

15 ESP Year Weighting  ESP Post Processing: Year Weighting  Weighted all >0 average Jul-Sep SOI as 1.0; else 0.0  Reduces sample size of ESP from 45 to 23 years

16 Comparison of ESP 2008 with ESP Climate Adjusted

17 Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center Ray.Fukunaga@noaa.gov (503) 326-7291

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