1. 1 Forecasting

2. 2 Forecasters May Miss Big Events The Great Recession

3. 3 Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADSA) Business Index, Fed at Philadelphia The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index's underlying components are released.

4. 4 Last Two years

5. 5 Since 2000

6. 6 Since 1960

7. 7 Survey of Professional Forecasters

8. 8 Probability Distribution on Annual growth

9. 9 You can stand taller on somebody else’s shoulders

10. 10 Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index

11. 11 FRED at St. Louis Fed: GDP, 1947-

12. 12 GDP 1947- (Log Scale)

13. 13 Change in GDP

14. 14 Last 5 Years GDP, $ Billions

15. 15 Change in GDP, Last 5 Years

16. 16 Change in Disposable Personal Income, Last 5 years

17. 17 Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures Since 1929, $ Billions

18. 18 Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures, last 5 years

19. 19 Civilian Unemployment Rate

20. 20 Unemployment Rate in California, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

21. 21 Forecasts Livingston Survey

22. 22 GDP Growth

23. 23 Interest rates

24. 24 Forecasters

25. 25 S&P 500

26. 26

27. 27

28. 28

29. 29

30. 30

31. 31 Duration of Unemployment, FRED

32. 32 Duration of Unemployment

33. 33 California California Economic Indicators

34. 34

35. 35 Employment Growth” Month to Month Changes

36. 36 Home Building

37. 37 Month to month changes in Employment

38. 38

39. 39

40. 40

41. 41

42. 42

43. 43

44. 44

45. 45

46. 46