1. “College Major and Preferences: The Case of Religion” + “Education and Values: Family, Careers and Society” Miles Kimball Colter Mitchell Arland Thornton Linda Young-DeMarco University of Michigan All authors contributed substantially to this paper, and names are listed alphabetically to reflect the substantial contribution of each. Paper available at http://paa2006.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=60182

2. Higher education is associated with attitudes towards  Individual achievement  Marriage and intergenerational relationships  Divorce, cohabitation, and childbearing  Careers, fulfillment, and community service  Religion

3. Focus of Research  Causal Relationships College Major Values

4. Focus of Research  Causal Relationships College Major Values

5. Focus of Research  Reciprocal Causal Relationships College Major Values

6. Theory  Three Streams of Thought: Science Developmentalism Postmodernism

7. Science  Alternative authority structure  Alternative view of life and purpose God not necessary for explaining life Humans related to animals Mind=Brain (neurological explanations of spiritual experience) Little room in Physics for an immortal soul separate from the body.

8. Developmentalism  Narrative of progress: Individual over family Materialism Equality and Freedom

9. Postmodernism  Rejection of absolute or universal standards  Epistemological doubt  Social and political power determines what counts as true and right.

10. College Major MajorSciencePostmodernismDevelopmentalism All Majors+++ Humanities++ Social Science ++ Natural Science ++

11. Two Fundamental Hypotheses  Hypotheses 1: College major will influence values concerning family, careers, and society  Hypothesis 2: Values will influence the choice of college major

12. College Major Major Family Career Society Humanities--+ Social Science--+ Natural Science-??

13. Monitoring the Future  High school seniors in the United States  The baseline interview takes place during senior year (Time 0)  Time 1 is one or two years after high school  Time 3 is five or six years after high school

14. How Important Is … (4pt scale)  Family Having a good marriage and family life Being able to give my children better opportunities than I've had Living close to parents and relatives  Career Being successful in my line of work Having lots of money Being able to find steady work  Society Working to correct social and economic inequalities Making a contribution to society Finding purpose and meaning in my life

15. College Major Categories  Natural Science  Social Science  Humanities  Other/Undecided  No College  “Trades” (clerical, vocational/technical, business, education, and engineering)

16. Controls  Year of initial survey (1976-1995)  Region  Gender  Parental education  Political preferences and beliefs  Religion

17. Analyses College Major Values

18. Figure 1 Measurement and Structural Effects Model of Personal Values

19. Equations  Substantive equations  Measurement equations

20. Table 3 Predicting Time 3 Attitude from Time 1 Attitude and College Major at Time 1 LISREL Models (Z – ratios in parentheses) N=4173

21. Analyses  Values College Major College major stability Choosing a new college major

22. Table 4 Predicting the Stability of Time1 College Majors Through Time3 for the Time1 Attitude (Z-Ratios in Parentheses) N=4173

23. Table 5 Multinomial Logistic Regressions Predicting the Time3 College Major from the Time1 Attitude for Individuals in College at Time1 Who Indicated a Change in College Major by Time3 (Trades is the Omitted Category) (Z-ratios in Parentheses) (N=888)

24. Summary and Conclusions  College major changes values  Values affect college major choice  Strong causal nexus between values and major life decisions

25. Table 3 Predicting Time 3 Religiosity from Time 1 Religiosity and College Major at Time 1 LISREL Models (Z – ratios in parentheses)

26. Table 4 Predicting the Stability of Time1 College Majors Through Time3 for the Time1 Religiosity (Z-Ratios in Parentheses)

27. Table 5 Multinomial Logistic Regressions Predicting the Time3 College Major from the Time1 Religiosity for Individuals in College at Time1 Who Indicated a Change in College Major by Time3 (Trades is the Omitted Category) (Z-ratios in Parentheses)

28. Multipliers: Can these effects explain social change?  Many of these ideas affect everyone, regardless of major (or not attending college)—estimates of differences in effects are a lower bound on the overall size of the effects.  These are the effects after diminishing returns Effects bigger in the past when the ideas were newer Effects bigger in other countries where newer  The total social effects are cumulative over time  Colleges train the cultural elites (e.g., news and entertainment elites).

29. Is this Economics as well as Sociology?  “Values” = Views about what people should do.  What people think they should do has a big effect on what they actually do. Thus, people’s views about what should be done are an important preference parameter. (Akerlof)  Religion clearly influences values in this sense and a great deal of evidence shows it affects choices. Thus it affects preferences.

30. 3 Origin Questions What determines:  The available technology?  The structure of strategic interactions?  Preferences?

31. Where do preferences come from?  Genes  Culture From parents From others

32. Implications of Evolution for Social Theory  In steady state, it is as if each replicating entity has a utility function it is maximizing Organisms Humans Animals Plants Design Plans Genes Ideas (Dawkin’s “Memes”) Groups Quantitatively, group selection requires equilibrium within the group.  Out of steady state, track population dynamics.

33. Explaining Trends in Religiosity  More religious people have more children  Thus, in terms of transmission of religiosity from parents to children, there is selection pressure toward greater religiosity.  The only way religiosity will not trend upwards is if there is some other influence pulling religiosity down. Simple regression to the mean? Influence of schooling? Influence of the media?