1. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Port of New York/New Jersey Operational Forecast System (NYOFS) and Tracer Simulation Eugene Wei Coastal Survey Development Laboratory NOAA/National Ocean Service Ted Caplow Peter Schlosser Earth and Environmental Engineering Department Columbia University 2003 Terrain-Following Ocean Models Users Workshop 4-6 August, 2003, PMEL/NOAA, Seattle WA

2. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Port of New York/New Jersey Operational Forecast System (NYOFS) and Tracer Simulation Objectives Promote Safe Navigation Promote Safe Navigation Provide mariners and port managers with near real-time and forecast water levels and currents throughout the harbor Provide mariners and port managers with near real-time and forecast water levels and currents throughout the harbor Tracer dispersion study and prediction Tracer dispersion study and prediction

3. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory P hysical O ceanographic R eal- T ime S ystem C enter for O perational O ceanographic P roducts and S ervices

4. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Needs Near real-time water level and current information at many non- gage locations Near real-time water level and current information at many non- gage locations Short term water level and current forecast guidance information Short term water level and current forecast guidance information Detail current information (Kill Van Kull) for Coast Guard ship “right of way” decision Detail current information (Kill Van Kull) for Coast Guard ship “right of way” decision

5. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

6. Technical Approach 3-D barotropic Princeton Ocean Model (POM) 3-D barotropic Princeton Ocean Model (POM) Coarse grid: 73X134 cells, 7 levels, 130 m – 1 km Coarse grid: 73X134 cells, 7 levels, 130 m – 1 km Higher resolution nested fine grid: 126X34 cells, 7 levels, 70 m – 130 m Higher resolution nested fine grid: 126X34 cells, 7 levels, 70 m – 130 m One-way coupling One-way coupling

7. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory - One-way coupling The fine grid (FG) models obtain their open boundary conditions from the coarse grid (CG) models and FG model through a common block. Two models run as a single model.

8. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Model Nowcast/Forecast Flowchart

9. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

10. Model and System Skill Assessments * Astronomical tide simulation * Hindcast * Semi-operational nowcasts/forecasts * Operational nowcasts/forecasts

11. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/NYOFS/nyofs.shtml

12. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

19. * Near real-time model input - Boundary conditions (water levels) at Sandy Hook and Kings Point Operational Model Forecast System Challenge

20. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

21. * Near real-time model input - Boundary conditions (water levels) at Sandy Hook and Kings Point * System operational flags - CORMS ( C ontinuous O perational R eal-time M onitoring S ystem) Operational Model Forecast System Challenge

22. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

23. * Near real-time model input - Boundary conditions (water levels) at Sandy Hook and Kings Point * System operational flags - CORMS (Continuous Operational Real-time Monitoring System) * System failure automatic recovery procedure - what if a network interruption ? - what if a system server shutdown or reboot ? Operational Model Forecast System Challenge

24. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory SF 6 Tracer Experiments and Simulations Earth and Environmental Engineering Department Columbia University July 14-25, 2002 at Newark Bay injected at 1600 UTC July 14 ~ 0.94 mol dissolved through water column automatic sampling at 1.2 m depth gas extractor and gas chromatograph passive tracer concentration simulation using NYOFS model initial concentration and gas exchange rate

25. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Daily average concentration agrees well between model and data. Model shows dispersion into lower bay even on Day 1

26. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

27. Measured and Simulated Total SF 6 Inventory Initial Injection: 0.9 mol Model is forced with exponential decay gas exchange

28. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Longitudinal SF 6 Concentration Model Data Comparison Along Arthur Kill Distance inland from Arthur Kill Mouth Model seems underestimate tracer dispersion probably due to less current speed along AK

29. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Longitudinal SF 6 Concentration Model Data Comparison Along Kill Van Kull Distance seaward from Bergen Pt. Model better representing current speed in KVK, straight channel

30. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory SF 6 Tracer Experiments and Simulations Earth and Environmental Engineering Department Columbia University June 17-July 5, 2003 at East River ~ 1.0 mol dissolved through water column concentration dispersion predictions to assist planning

31. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory Move the injection location north because the prediction showing dispersion to upper bay faster than expected

32. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory NYOFS is running operationally at NOS’s CO- OPS with hourly nowcast and four times a day 30-hour forecasts Most model water level and current skills meet NOS standard Data validated model for tracer concentration prediction to assist field work planning http://co-ops.nos.noaa/NYOFS/nyofs.shtml Summary

33. NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory