1. A Plea for Adaptive Data Analysis: Instantaneous Frequencies and Trends For Nonstationary Nonlinear Data Norden E. Huang Research Center for Adaptive Data Analysis National Central University Zhongli, Taiwan, China Hot Topic Conference, 2011

2. In search of frequency I found the trend and other information Instantaneous Frequencies and Trends For Nonstationary Nonlinear Data

3. Prevailing Views on Instantaneous Frequency The term, Instantaneous Frequency, should be banished forever from the dictionary of the communication engineer. J. Shekel, 1953 The uncertainty principle makes the concept of an Instantaneous Frequency impossible. K. Gröchennig, 2001

4. How to define frequency? It seems to be trivial. But frequency is an important parameter for us to understand many physical phenomena.

5. Definition of Frequency Given the period of a wave as T ; the frequency is defined as

6. Traditional Definition of Frequency frequency = 1/period. Definition too crude Only work for simple sinusoidal waves Does not apply to nonstationary processes Does not work for nonlinear processes Does not satisfy the need for wave equations

7. The Idea and the need of Instantaneous Frequency According to the classic wave theory, the wave conservation law is based on a gradually changing φ(x,t) such that Therefore, both wave number and frequency must have instantaneous values and differentiable.

8. Instantaneous Frequency

9. Hilbert Transform : Definition

10. The Traditional View of the Hilbert Transform for Data Analysis

11. Traditional View a la Hahn (1995) : Data LOD

12. Traditional View a la Hahn (1995) : Hilbert

13. Traditional Approach a la Hahn (1995) : Phase Angle

14. Traditional Approach a la Hahn (1995) : Phase Angle Details

15. Traditional Approach a la Hahn (1995) : Frequency

16. Why the traditional approach does not work?

17. Hilbert Transform a cos  + b : Data

18. Hilbert Transform a cos  + b : Phase Diagram

19. Hilbert Transform a cos  + b : Phase Angle Details

20. Hilbert Transform a cos  + b : Frequency

21. The Empirical Mode Decomposition Method and Hilbert Spectral Analysis Sifting

22. Empirical Mode Decomposition: Methodology : Test Data

23. Empirical Mode Decomposition: Methodology : data and m1

24. Empirical Mode Decomposition: Methodology : data & h1

25. Empirical Mode Decomposition: Methodology : h1 & m2

26. Empirical Mode Decomposition: Methodology : h3 & m4

27. Empirical Mode Decomposition: Methodology : h4 & m5

28. Empirical Mode Decomposition Sifting : to get one IMF component

29. The Stoppage Criteria The Cauchy type criterion: when SD is small than a pre- set value, where Or, simply pre-determine the number of iterations.

30. Effects of Sifting To remove ridding waves To reduce amplitude variations The systematic study of the stoppage criteria leads to the conjecture connecting EMD and Fourier Expansion.

31. Empirical Mode Decomposition: Methodology : IMF c1

32. Definition of the Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF): a necessary condition only!

33. Empirical Mode Decomposition: Methodology : data, r1 and m1

34. Empirical Mode Decomposition Sifting : to get all the IMF components

35. Definition of Instantaneous Frequency

36. An Example of Sifting & Time-Frequency Analysis

37. Length Of Day Data

38. LOD : IMF

39. Orthogonality Check Pair-wise % 0.0003 0.0001 0.0215 0.0117 0.0022 0.0031 0.0026 0.0083 0.0042 0.0369 0.0400 Overall % 0.0452

40. LOD : Data & c12

41. LOD : Data & Sum c11-12

42. LOD : Data & sum c10-12

43. LOD : Data & c9 - 12

44. LOD : Data & c8 - 12

45. LOD : Detailed Data and Sum c8-c12

46. LOD : Data & c7 - 12

47. LOD : Detail Data and Sum IMF c7-c12

48. LOD : Difference Data – sum all IMFs

49. Properties of EMD Basis The Adaptive Basis based on and derived from the data by the empirical method satisfy nearly all the traditional requirements for basis empirically and a posteriori: Complete Convergent Orthogonal Unique

50. The combination of Hilbert Spectral Analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition has been designated by NASA as HHT (HHT vs. FFT)

51. Comparison between FFT and HHT

52. Comparisons: Fourier, Hilbert & Wavelet

53. Speech Analysis Hello : Data

54. Four comparsions D

55. Traditional View a la Hahn (1995) : Hilbert

56. Mean Annual Cycle & Envelope: 9 CEI Cases

57. Mean Hilbert Spectrum : All CEs

58. For quantifying nonlinearity we need instantaneous frequency. For

59. How to define Nonlinearity? How to quantify it through data alone?

60. The term, ‘Nonlinearity,’ has been loosely used, most of the time, simply as a fig leaf to cover our ignorance. Can we be more precise?

61. How is nonlinearity defined? Based on Linear Algebra: nonlinearity is defined based on input vs. output. But in reality, such an approach is not practical: natural system are not clearly defined; inputs and out puts are hard to ascertain and quantify. Furthermore, without the governing equations, the order of nonlinearity is not known. In the autonomous systems the results could depend on initial conditions rather than the magnitude of the ‘inputs.’ The small parameter criteria could be misleading: sometimes, the smaller the parameter, the more nonlinear.

62. Linear Systems Linear systems satisfy the properties of superposition and scaling. Given two valid inputs to a system H, as well as their respective outputs then a linear system, H, must satisfy for any scalar values α and β.

63. How is nonlinearity defined? Based on Linear Algebra: nonlinearity is defined based on input vs. output. But in reality, such an approach is not practical: natural system are not clearly defined; inputs and out puts are hard to ascertain and quantify. Furthermore, without the governing equations, the order of nonlinearity is not known. In the autonomous systems the results could depend on initial conditions rather than the magnitude of the ‘inputs.’ The small parameter criteria could be misleading: sometimes, the smaller the parameter, the more nonlinear.

64. How should nonlinearity be defined? The alternative is to define nonlinearity based on data characteristics: Intra-wave frequency modulation. Intra-wave frequency modulation is known as the harmonic distortion of the wave forms. But it could be better measured through the deviation of the instantaneous frequency from the mean frequency (based on the zero crossing period).

65. Characteristics of Data from Nonlinear Processes

66. Duffing Pendulum x

67. Duffing Equation : Data

68. Hilbert ’ s View on Nonlinear Data Intra-wave Frequency Modulation

69. A simple mathematical model

70. Duffing Type Wave Data: x = cos(wt+0.3 sin2wt)

71. Duffing Type Wave Perturbation Expansion

72. Duffing Type Wave Wavelet Spectrum

73. Duffing Type Wave Hilbert Spectrum

74. Degree of nonlinearity

75. Degree of Nonlinearity DN is determined by the combination of δη precisely with Hilbert Spectral Analysis. Either of them equals zero means linearity. We can determine δ and η separately: –η can be determined from the instantaneous frequency modulations relative to the mean frequency. –δ can be determined from DN with known η. NB: from any IMF, the value of δη cannot be greater than 1. The combination of δ and η gives us not only the Degree of Nonlinearity, but also some indications of the basic properties of the controlling Differential Equation, the Order of Nonlinearity.

76. Stokes Models

77. Data and IFs : C1

78. Summary Stokes I

79. Lorenz Model Lorenz is highly nonlinear; it is the model equation that initiated chaotic studies. Again it has three parameters. We decided to fix two and varying only one. There is no small perturbation parameter. We will present the results for ρ=28, the classic chaotic case.

80. Phase Diagram for ro=28

81. X-Component DN1=0.5147 CDN=0.5027

82. Data and IF

83. Spectra data and IF

84. Comparisons FourierWaveletHilbert Basisa priori Adaptive FrequencyIntegral transform: Global Integral transform: Regional Differentiation: Local PresentationEnergy-frequencyEnergy-time- frequency Nonlinearno yes, quantifying Non-stationarynoyesYes, quantifying Uncertaintyyes no Harmonicsyes no

85. How to define Trend ? Parametric or Non-parametric? Intrinsic vs. extrinsic approach?

86. The State-of-the arts: Trend “ One economist ’ s trend is another economist ’ s cycle ” Watson : Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. 1991 Long-run Economic Relationships. Cambridge University Press.

87. Philosophical Problem Anticipated 名不正則言不順 言不順則事不成 —— 孔夫子

88. On Definition Without a proper definition, logic discourse would be impossible. Without logic discourse, nothing can be accomplished. Confucius

89. Definition of the Trend Within the given data span, the trend is an intrinsically fitted monotonic function, or a function in which there can be at most one extremum. The trend should be an intrinsic and local property of the data; it is determined by the same mechanisms that generate the data. Being local, it has to associate with a local length scale, and be valid only within that length span, and be part of a full wave length. The method determining the trend should be intrinsic. Being intrinsic, the method for defining the trend has to be adaptive. All traditional trend determination methods are extrinsic.

90. Algorithm for Trend Trend should be defined neither parametrically nor non-parametrically. It should be the residual obtained by removing cycles of all time scales from the data intrinsically. Through EMD.

91. Global Temperature Anomaly Annual Data from 1856 to 2003

92. Global Temperature Anomaly 1856 to 2003

93. IMF Mean of 10 Sifts : CC(1000, I)

94. Mean IMF

95. STD IMF

96. Statistical Significance Test

97. Data and Trend C6

98. Rate of Change Overall Trends : EMD and Linear

99. Conclusion With EMD, we can define the true instantaneous frequency and extract trend from any data. We can also talk about nonlinearity quantitatively. Among other applications, the degree of nonlinearity could be used to set an objective criterion in structural health monitoring and to quantify the degree of nonlinearity in natural phenomena; the trend could be used in financial as well as natural sciences. These are all possible because of adaptive data analysis method.

100. The job of a scientist is to listen carefully to nature, not to tell nature how to behave. Richard Feynman To listen is to use adaptive method and let the data sing, and not to force the data to fit preconceived modes. The Job of a Scientist

101. All these results depends on adaptive approach. Thanks

105. What This Means EMD separates scales in physical space; it generates an extremely sparse representation for any given data. Added noises help to make the decomposition more robust with uniform scale separations. Instantaneous Frequency offers a total different view for nonlinear data: instantaneous frequency needs no harmonics and is unlimited by uncertainty principle. Adaptive basis is indispensable for nonstationary and nonlinear data analysis EMD establishes a new paradigm of data analysis

106. Outstanding Mathematical Problems 1.Mathematic rigor on everything we do. (tighten the definitions of IMF,….) 2.Adaptive data analysis (no a priori basis methodology in general) 3. Prediction problem for nonstationary processes (end effects) 4. Optimization problem (the best stoppage criterion and the uniqueness of the decomposition) 5. Convergence problem (best spline implement, and 2-D)

107. Conclusion Adaptive method is the only scientifically meaningful way to analyze nonlinear and nonstationary data. It is the only way to find out the underlying physical processes; therefore, it is indispensable in scientific research. EMD is adaptive; It is physical, direct, and simple. But, we have a lot of problems And need a lot of helps!

108. Up Hill Does the road wind up-hill all the way? Yes, to the very end. Will the day’s journey take the whole long day? From morn to night, my friend. --- Christina Georgina Rossetti

109. A less poetic paraphrase There is no doubt that our road will be long and that our climb will be steep. …… But, anything is possible. --- Barack Obama 18 Jan 2009, Lincoln Memorial

110. History of HHT 1998: The Empirical Mode Decomposition Method and the Hilbert Spectrum for Non-stationary Time Series Analysis, Proc. Roy. Soc. London, A454, 903-995. The invention of the basic method of EMD, and Hilbert transform for determining the Instantaneous Frequency and energy. 1999: A New View of Nonlinear Water Waves – The Hilbert Spectrum, Ann. Rev. Fluid Mech. 31, 417-457. Introduction of the intermittence in decomposition. 2003: A confidence Limit for the Empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectral analysis, Proc. of Roy. Soc. London, A459, 2317-2345. Establishment of a confidence limit without the ergodic assumption. 2004: A Study of the Characteristics of White Noise Using the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method, Proc. Roy. Soc. London, A460, 1179-1611. Defined statistical significance and predictability.

111. Recent Developments in HHT 2007: On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 104, 14,889-14,894. The correct adaptive trend determination method 2009: On Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis. Advances in Adaptive data Analysis, 1, 1-41 2009: On instantaneous Frequency. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 2, 177-229. 2010: Multi-Dimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis 3, 339- 372. 2011: Degree of Nonlinearity. Patent and Paper