1. Urban and Regional Planning Analysis, Dr. Pam Perlich Patty Murphy, April 4, 2006 Program Progress in a Political Environment

2. Demographics Demographics Expenditures Expenditures Economic Change and Revenue Economic Change and Revenue Utah Politics Utah Politics Table of Contents

3. Demographics Pictures courtesy of Jordan School District

4. 2004 and 2005 Enrollment by Grade Start K in 2008

5. 2003-03 and 2004-05 Enrollment Change by Race/Ethnicity Start K in 2008

6. 2004-05 Enrollment Change by Race/Ethnicity Start K in 2008

7. Oct 1, 1990 and Oct 1, 2005 Hispanic as Percentage of Total Enrollment

8. Oct 1, 1977 – Oct 1, 2005 Hispanic and All-Other Enrollment Start K in 2008

9. Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006 Actual-Projected State Enrollment Error Start K in 2008 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

10. Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006 Projected State Enrollment Percentage Error Start K in 2008

11. Oct 1, 1993 – Oct 1, 2006 Actual and Projected State Enrollment Start K in 2008 Sources: USOE, Finance and Statistics, and the Common Data Committee.

12. 1960-2005 Actual Enrollment; 2006-2015 Projected Enrollment ProjectedActual Sources: USOE, Finance and Statistics, the Common Data Committee, the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and the Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

13. Rising:

14. Expenditures: Labor Intensive Picture courtesy of Jordan School District

15. FY 2004 Expenditures per Pupil by State US $9,660 Utah $6,142 Sources: USOE, and the US Bureau of the Census.

16. FY 1970 - FY 2005 Utah K-12 Expenditures per Pupil Inflation Adjusted Sources: USOE, and the National Center for Education Statistics, US Department of Education.

17. Growth = Enrollment Change + Inflation K-12 Education Funds

18. FY 1976-FY 2007 WPU Value and Enrollment Change Inflation Adjusted

19. FY 1996-FY 2007 Uniform School Funds per Pupil and Enrollment Annual Change Inflation Adjusted

20. State and Local Revenue: 11.5% Increase Enrollment: 2.9% Increase FY 07

21. “We are making progress: Things are getting worse at a slower rate.” Patrick Ogden, State Associate Superintendent

22. At-Risk Programs 5.4% Increase

23. Start K in 2008 Perfect Funding Equity $1 = 1 Student

24. Start K in 2008 Practically Perfect Funding Distribution Gini Coefficient:.044

25. Economic Change and Revenue

26. Does education drive economic development, or

27. Does economic development drive education?

28. 1960-2015 Utah Personal Income in millions Bureau of Economic Analysis, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and the Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics. Projected

29. 1979-2015 Utah Personal Income per Student Source: Economy.com, Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, and USOE, Finance and Statistics. Projected

30. 1970-2015 Total K-12 Education Expenditures as a Percent of Personal Income Inflation Adjusted Projected Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.

31. “Is what you are doing effective?”

32. One Party Taxpayers Association Charter Schools (“ Private Schools for Free!”) Utah Politics:

33. Parents for Choice Private School Subsidies $50,000 per legislative candidate Utah Politics:

34. Governor Huntsman Utah State Office of Ed School Districts Utah Education Assoc, PTSA Utah Politics:

35. Immigration Laws Immigration Practice Federal Deficit Oil and Utility Prices Globalization Other Impacts

36. “Don’t confuse action with activity….”

37. Patty Murphy Budget Administrator 538-7577 patty.murphy@schools.utah.gov Questions?