1. ECON 303 Intermediate Macroeconomics Instructor: Bernard Malamud –Office: BEH 502 Phone (702) 895 –3294 Fax: 895 – 1354 »Email: bernard.malamud@unlv.edu Website: www.unlv.edu/faculty/bmalamudwww.unlv.edu/faculty/bmalamud Office hours: MW 9-10am; 11:15am-12:15pm; and by appointment

2. Macro News 2007 CPI Inflation: 4.1 %, highest in 17 years! –Core CPI up only 2.4%. 2007 Housing Construction: Down 25% –Clark County Home Sales: New – 45% Existing – 40% December Index of Industrial Production: No gain December Index of Leading Indicators: Down 0.4% December Unemployment Rate: 5.0%, up from 4.7% December Retail Sales: Down 4% Index of Consumer Sentiment: Down 18%, Nov - Nov S & P 500 –December 31, 2007  1468 –January 17, 2008 [Philadelphia Beige Book]  1333 January 22, 2008: 75 Basis Point Fed Funds Rate Cut

3. An impending recession? Stagflation? –Housing b u b b l e –Spi k e in unemployment –Consumer to the rescue??!? Oil p r i c e rise… the macro impacts Exploding US trade deficit –$ d e p r e c i at i o n helps … but threatens inflation –Emerging markets help? I N D I A, C H I N A –Other locomotives? Europe, Japan? See The Education of Ben Bernanke, NY Times Magazine, 1/20/08 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/magazine/20Ben- Bernanke-t.html?hp http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/magazine/20Ben- Bernanke-t.html?hphttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/magazine/20Ben- Bernanke-t.html?hp Macro Concerns

4. Today’s Headlines Timely Targeted Temporary R o b u s t Textbook Macroeconomics

5. Course Objectives Refresh your command of … Macroeconomic terminology  eco-talk Macro Facts Schools of thought

6. Course Objectives Master MODELS – –Demand Side Models  AD Multiplier IS – LM Macroeconomics Without LM – –Embed the Fed’s (Bernanke’s) Reaction Function in the Money Market – –Supply Side Models  AS Wage setting – Price setting Phillips Curve – –Role of Expectations … in theory and practice

7. Macro - variables Output … Real GDP … Growth Rate Unemployment Inflation … CPI, GDP Deflator Macro Time Frames Short-run … sticky price Medium-run … price adjusts Long-run … economic growth

8. Where We’re Heading Develop tools to address macro questions: –What drives expansions and recessions? –What holds inflation in check? –Can the unemployment rate be too low? What causes unemployment? –Why do growth rates differ across countries?

9. Where to Find the Numbers http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ www.bls.gov/data/ www.economist.com www.bea.doc.gov http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/ www.oecd.org