1. Climate Change Mitigation Energy Security Hard Choices Ahead Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences North Norfolk Environmental Forum 27th April 2005

2. Climate Change Mitigation The facts about Global Warming Options for Energy Supply The Hard Choices we have to make Some basic facts about our choices WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm

3. Future Global Warming Rates

4. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Difficult Choices Ahead

5. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

6. Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

9. House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK! It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

10. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

11. Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

12. Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse supply of different renewables across the country will provide security [it is rare for the wind not to be blowing anywhere except on sunny days when solar energy output is at a peak] A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption BUT: Aren’t Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply We must not get drawn into a single issue debate – a rational debate covering all the alternatives is needed.

13. Our Choices: They are difficult NETA has to cope with the loss of Sizewell B through a reactor trip. This loss amounts to around 3 times the total installed capacity of wind at present. NETA also has to cope with sudden changes in demand (up to 2.5 times Sizewell B) in a matter of minutes e.g. from TV scheduling. Experience from Denmark shows that the normal maximum change in any one hour from Wind Output is no more than 18% on one occasion in a year. With a larger country area the figures for diverse wind generation will be less in UK. One will not save Carbon Dioxide because power stations are running in case they are needed. There is very little truth in this. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted is dependant on the output of a fossil fuel power station. If it is running under low load it will emit only a very small amount of extra CO 2. Allowing for this, the effect of standby reserve will amount to a maximum of 15 – 20 gms per kWh of Wind Energy compared to 430 for gas or 1000 for coal. A substantial saving is made. Renewable Energy: The Issues Isn’t Energy from Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply

14. Our Choices: They are difficult There is some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically one per 2 turbine operating years – except in a few locations. the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it. in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 5 days. Radio Interference, Air traffic In A few locations there can be a problem for radio interference, but in most cases this is not an issue although siting relative to radio masts needs to be considered. Air Traffic Control has no problems in countries where there are large numbers of turbines – e.g near Amsterdam airport. Wind Energy: The Issues Wind Turbines kill birds Affect House Prices Evidence from Estate Agents in the Swaffham Area say they have a positive effect on house prices.

15. Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive impact on the town in a number of ways. I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area. This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of the area. Our Choices: They are difficult

16. Noise Beyond 200m noise levels are below 45 dB and comparable with background. At 400m, levels are noticeably lower still.

17. Our Choices: They are difficult Wind Turbines are beautiful! » Wind Turbines are Ugly! What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation etc?. Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia The North Norfolk Coal Field Increased Famine 20 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025 Increased incidence of extreme weather events.

18. Government Response Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

19. The CRed ambition To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse community to debate, plan and execute a programme to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60% by 2025 Can a local community take on the responsibility for starting to confront the challenge of climate change and make a difference? Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere else? Can we encourage politicians/officials to be bolder on our behalf? It will involve an integrated approach to use of renewables alongside conservation “exemplar for the world”

20. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 4 million each year for Norfolk On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year.

21. Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO 2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO 2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles

22. Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity Involve the local Community

23. Electricity Statistics: North Norfolk Each house in North Norfolk consumes, on average 5668 kWh per year 50% more than a house in Norwich North Norfolk consumes a total of 559 million kWh per year (288 million domestic). A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 55% of domestic needs for whole of North Norfolk (or 28% of total demand) Would save ~ 80 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 45 000 hot air balloons each year. The alternative: Persuade 32 000 motorists never to drive the car again Or 320 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

24. Conclusions Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Security more likely in future. Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room