1. Brian Voigt NR385 – Ecological Economics
Spatial economics and location theory – implications for modeling environmental impacts of future development patterns
Brian Voigt
NR385 – Ecological Economics
Brian Voigt
NR385 – Ecological Economics
evolution of urban form over time and the factors influencing change
from small villages to metropolitan regions
focus on residential location, but this inherently includes a discussion of industrial location’s influence on employment and utilization of natural rsources

2. Early City Development?
Agricultural surplus
technological innovation: irrigation, plow
The defensive city
fortified storage facility
The religious city
worship on a grander scale
scale economies in the provision of religion
early cities were able to form as a result of agricultural surplus
early technological innovation brought about the domestication of grains, farm equipment, irrigation
Between 1953 and 1993, agricultural employment fell by more than 67%
the number of farms decreased by more than 58%
average farm size increased by more than 95%
defensive city
storage of surplus food for distribution made for lucrative targets
economies of scale for food storage
employees of storage facility live near job, and small city forms
employees exchanged services for piece of agricultural surplus
religious city
first cities developed as a result of large-scale religion (Lewis Mumford, 1961)
earth gods replaced by celestial gods
large temples at central locations replaced home-based worship
role of the military
cities both encouraged and protected against aggressive behavior
safety in numbers

3. A Brief History of Location Theory
David Ricardo (1772 – 1823)
theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility
J-H von Thünen ( )
model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward
Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969)
theory of central place defined by hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach
August Lösch (1906 – 1945)
bottom up approach modeled after Christaller
William Alonso (1933 – 1999)
model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD
locus of opportunities v indifference surface
early theory was most applicable to agrarian society
ricardo
variation in fertility caused farmers to bid up price of most fertile land, benefiting the landowner
influence on marx’s writings on adversarial class relations

4. von Thünen’s Isolated State
von Thunen
The Isolated State published in 1826
based on the central market place
incorporated location, distance, and the cost of transportation of goods
durability of goods
profitability, based on price
assumptions
the central market place (the “Isolated State”) is self sufficient with no external influences,
the market price for a good is the same for all producers
unoccupied land surrounds the central market place,
the landscape is homogenous, as are the factors of production for agriculture (soil, climate, etc),
the yield per unit per acre is the same everywhere
major transportation routes do not exist
on the left
land uses denoted by concentric rings
slope of line is the cost of transport
distance on the x-axis
profit or price of good on the y-axis
on the right
resulting land use pattern

5. A Brief History of Location Theory
David Ricardo (1772 – 1823)
theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility
J-H von Thünen ( )
model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward
Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969)
theory of central place defined by functions of cities
hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach
August Lösch (1906 – 1945)
bottom up approach modeled after Christaller
William Alonso (1933 – 1999)
model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD
locus of opportunities v indifference surface
incorporated transportation
changed geometry and assumed interaction between varying levels of urban form

6. Christaller & Lösch Villages at vertices Town = City = Conurbation =
Christaller assumed larger served smaller, while Losch accounted for possibility that smaller could serve larger
Losch’s model minimizes both transportation and production costs to explain the location of centers, the distance between centers, the amount of goods or services produced, and the patterns of trade
regional functions performed at the conurbation and distributed throughout region
not a central function if production relied on material from outside the area
distance between centers correspond to maximum practical travel distance from outlying area to the market
array of larger hexagons can then be placed on top of the smaller set to denote the service areas of the next size order (square root of three)
assumptions
heterogeneous production
homogenous area of location
economies of scale in production
exogenous transport cost and supply center location

7. A Brief History of Location Theory
David Ricardo (1772 – 1823)
theory of differential rent based on variation in fertility
J-H von Thünen ( )
model based on a central market place with varying land uses radiating outward
Walter Christaller (1893 – 1969)
theory of central place defined by hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach
August Lösch (1906 – 1945)
bottom up approach modeled after Christaller
William Alonso (1933 – 1999)
Location and Land Use (1964)
model of demand for land as a function of distance from CBD
locus of opportunities v indifference surface
monocentric city model adapted from von Thunen
locus of opportunities
representation of all the opportunities open to a consumer at a particular income level
indifference surface
set of combinations of land quantity, composite good and distance to the CBD such that any combination is equally satisfying to the individual
a steeper bid-rent function for commercial activity results in the central location of employment

8. Evolution Of Urban Form
Topographic constraints
Ports and waterways (1840s)
Walking city
2 mile radius = 1 hr walk from edge to center (pre-1850s)
Transportation options
Horse drawn and electric trolley – expanded ring to 5 miles around city, linear development, empty space b/t trolley lines (1850s – 1900)
Cars and buses – expanded ring to 10 mile, fill in between trolley lines, primarily auto dependent (1930s)
Decentralization of the central city
Redefining the American dream – post-WWII development of the 1940s
Suburban, ex-urban, and edge cities
Sprawling development
edge cities formed at the nodes of central transportation routes

9. City Statistics 1950: 70% of population lived in cities
2000: 60% of population lived in suburbs
Of the 157 urbanized areas in 1950
69 million people and 12,715 sq miles
Same 157 urbanized areas in 2000
155 million people and 52,388 sq miles
Net result
2.25 x population
4.12 x land area
expansion of city size due to population growth, transportation alternatives, flight from central cities, cost of land in suburban areas, relocation of job opportunities, increasing need for large parking accommodations
sprawling, low-density development with increased reliance on automobiles

10. Factors of Influence on Urban Form
Social factors
segregation – racial, class, religious
congestion
Economic
maximizing individual satisfaction (Alonso, 1964)
cheap land and subsidized transportation costs
Technological change
transportation
telecommunication – substitute for human interaction?
Government policy
Federal – highways, water & sewer
State & local – land use planning
Sennett Uses of Disorder, 1970
landscape is increasingly homogenous
surround ourselves with others that are more similar than different
congestion is why people fled the central city, yet now highways are congested, suburban streets are congested, and the general reliance on the automobile has in many ways created more problems than they have solved
economic – tradeoff of more land at a cheaper price combined with increased personal transportation costs that are subsidized through government expenditure
techno change
transportation – has broadened the area we now know as city, and decreased the areas of unknown
global commerce has changed the nature of business and affected the nature of nature
telecommunication
electronic cottages Toffler, 1980
federal expenditures
2001 federal highway = $26.4 billion
2001 water and sewer grants = $3.6 billion

11. Land Use Planning Land Use Planning
Originated in the 1920s as a means to protect human health and welfare from neighboring industrial development
Can we protect people from themselves?
Segregation of land uses
Causes and characteristics of sprawl
affordable transportation, federally funded highways
affordable home mortgage rates post WWII
low density, non-contiguous land patterns
Can we plan our way out of sprawl? Portland v Phoenix
Originated in the 1920s as a means to protect human health and welfare from neighboring industrial development
Can we protect people from themselves?
Segregation of land uses
Causes and characteristics of sprawl
affordable transportation, federally funded highways
affordable home mortgage rates post WWII
low density, non-contiguous land patterns
Can we plan our way out of sprawl? Portland v Phoenix
initiated to protect population from incompatible uses
increasing population calls for central planning / decision making body because the cumulative impact of individual decisions combine to influence change orders of magnitude beyond the initial scope of the decision and in many cases unbeknownst to the individual decision maker
Kahn (1966) called this the tyranny of small decisions (Kahn, 1966)
maximizing individual satisfaction, results in sacrifices the accommodation of the public well-being, through environmental degredation.
Market failures in the form of subsidized growth have minimized the risk of development in naturally hazardous and environmentally sensitive areas
impacts to ecosystem services and environmental quality
segregation of land uses has increased reliance on automobile as primary mode of transport
increased impervious surface, air pollution
large-lot zoning results in fragmented habitat
conversion of land from natural to urban form
informed decision-making can lead to problem avoidance, reducing costs of mitigation, restoration, and general habitat impairment

12. Modeling with UrbanSim
University of Washington, Dept of Urban Design and Planning
Dynamic disequilibrium approach
avoid oversimplification of general equilibrium conditions
perfectly competitive market, products are homogenous, resources are mobile, present and future costs are known to all
Actor adjustment processes occur at varying rates
short: travel behavior
medium: household / business location
long: real estate development
Simulates annual evolution of households, jobs and real estate
individual-based for household and employment location
grid-based real estate market
Allows for hypothesis testing on specific policy alternatives or impact evaluation of scheduled events
Geographic Information Systems
pre-modeling: data development and organization
post-modeling: data organization and visualization of output
Cellular automata
tessellation of cells, usually square grids
establish initial conditions and transition rules between iterations
recursive application of rules (Clarke, et al, 1995)
self-modifying cellular automata allows rules to change via feedback mechanisms
triggered by growth rate or percent land under development
Agent-based
representation of autonomous actors
emergence of macro-scale behavior based on interaction
simulation of traffic patterns, spatial location of agent captures mobility, migration and suburban development
Sub-optimal nature of real estate investment
durability aids in influencing price
increases importance of transport network
scheduled events include changes to the transportation network, new industry
from Waddell, et al, 2003

13. UrbanSim cnt’d Model architecture Model components
suite of tools that interact through a data store
each component is recalculated annually
exogenous inputs
macroeconomic model predicts future conditions based on logistic regression analysis
travel demand forecasts future travel conditions
user input – changing land use policy, scheduled events
Model components
accessibility – normal good w/positive economic value
economic transition – distribution of jobs through employment sectors
demographic transition – distribution of households by type over time
employment mobility – P(job moves from one location to another)
household mobility – P(household moves from one place to another)
employment location – P(new or relocated job, located at a particular site)
household location – P(new or relocated household, located at particular site)
from Waddell, et al, 2003

14. Applying UrbanSim to Northern VT
Data
Economic
land value, employment
Biophysical
topography, soils
Infrastructure
roads, transit
Planning & zoning
land use, available housing
Census
population, household income, race, age
Case example
Chittenden, Addison and Lamoille Counties
Model calibration
1990 – 2002
Model run
2000 – 2015
Coordinated research effort:
habitat fragmentation
northern forest research
EPA grant
model calibration includes analysis of
What level of spatial resolution is best for analyzing and predicting locational phenomena?

15. Model Outputs – Land Use Change: 1980 - 1994

16. Conclusions Variation from early theories
global market place
changing technology
Utility of current modeling effort
model outputs inform planning process & ecosystem modeling
export to GIS for spatial analysis and visualization
Relevance to land use planning
assess impacts of current development patterns on environmental quality
test impacts of alternative land use policies
improved alternative to current growth model
minimize habitat fragmentation, enhance restoration, and protect species biodiversity
changing technology
agricultural production
transportation
realization of desires through “improvements” to quality of life
does urban form still exist

17. "… we have been the most prodigal of people with land, and for years we wasted it with impunity ... no matter how much we fouled it, there was always more over the next hill, or so it seemed." William Whyte (1968), The Last Landscape