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Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric.

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Presentation on theme: "Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric."— Presentation transcript:

1 Warm-Season Lake-/Sea-Breeze Severe Weather in the Northeast Patrick H. Wilson, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, NY Thomas A. Wasula NOAA / National Weather Service, Albany, NY CSTAR-II Grant NA04NWS4680005 Ninth Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, NY 8 November 2007

2 Research Goals  Investigate influence of thermodynamic and dynamical processes, along with physiographic effects, on lake-/sea-breeze severe weather events  Increase awareness and understanding of this phenomenon

3 Methodology  Warm season: April–October  Domain area shown by map  Selected cases from search of SPC archived storm data, along with input from NWS meteorologists, for 2000–2006  Verified from NCDC archived radar data

4 Methodology (continued)  Obtained 32 km-resolution NCEP/NARR gridded datasets for all cases to perform synoptic-scale analyses  Acquired 20 km-resolution RUC gridded datasets for three cases to perform mesoscale analyses  Collected soundings, radar data, satellite images, water temperature data, and surface observations  Classified cases into separate categories and conducted case study analyses

5 Case Classifications  Pure Case: mesoscale forcing primary; synoptic-scale forcing secondary  Mixed Case: mesoscale forcing and synoptic- scale forcing of similar importance  Null Case: convection suppressed by lake-/sea-breeze processes

6 Case List Cases chosen for RUC analysis highlighted  Pure Cases 9 August 2001 (Ontario) 6 July 2003 (Erie) 7 August 2005 (Chesapeake) 2 August 2006 (Ontario)  Mixed Cases 9 April 2001 (Erie) 19 April 2002 (Erie) 19 June 2002 (Atlantic) 24 July 2003 (Erie and Ontario) 1 August 2005 (Huron and Ontario) 5 August 2005 (Atlantic) 24 April 2006 (Chesapeake) 30 June 2006 (Erie and Ontario) 23 July 2006 (Erie and Ontario) 28 July 2006 (Atlantic)  Null Case 11 July 2006 (Atlantic)

7 Storm Formation Areas and Tracks: All Cases Legend Red: Storm Formation Areas Arrows: Storm Tracks Green: Null Case Area Pink: Tornado Risk Area

8 SPC Verification of Cases using Convective Outlook Reports for 2003–2006  Pure Cases (3) Slight Risk: 2, General Thunderstorms: 1  Mixed Cases (7) Slight Risk: 2, General Thunderstorms: 4, Nothing: 1  Null Case (1) Missed Null Area

9 Pure Case Example  2 August 2006 (Ontario)

10 1200 UTC 2 August 2006: 200 hPa NARR Analysis 2 4 6 8 10 Pure

11 1200 UTC 2 August 2006: 500 hPa NARR Analysis 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 Pure

12 1200 UTC 2 August 2006: Surface NARR Analysis Pure BUF

13 1200 UTC 2 August 2006: Sounding http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html Parcel taken from lowest 500 m to determine CAPE Pure

14 1600 UTC 2 August 2006: 925 hPa RUC Analysis 340 345 350 355 360 Pure

15 1600 UTC 2 August 2006: CAPE and 1000–700 hPa Wind Shear RUC Analysis 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Pure

16 1700 UTC 2 August 2006: Surface Observations Pure

17 1800 UTC 2 August 2006: NARR Cross-Section Analysis −3.5 −3.0 −2.5 −2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 Pure

18 1700 UTC 2 August 2006: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Pure

19 1800 UTC 2 August 2006: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Pure

20 1900 UTC 2 August 2006: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Pure

21 2000 UTC 2 August 2006: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Pure

22 2100 UTC 2 August 2006: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Pure

23 2200 UTC 2 August 2006: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Pure

24 2300 UTC 2 August 2006: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Pure

25 1702 UTC 2 August 2006: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Pure

26 1825 UTC 2 August 2006: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Pure

27 1902 UTC 2 August 2006: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Pure

28 2002 UTC 2 August 2006: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Pure

29 2125 UTC 2 August 2006: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Pure

30 2202 UTC 2 August 2006: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Pure

31 2302 UTC 2 August 2006: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Pure

32 2 August 2006: SPC Storm Reports http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo Pure

33 Pure Case Conclusions  Ridge axis in place at surface or aloft  T > 30°C, T d > 20°C, CAPE > 1500 J kg −1  Placement and timing signal given by 925 hPa θ e -ridge axis (θ e > 335 K)  Tendency to become squall lines and to prefer valleys  Boundary intersections enhance convection  Occur most often during hottest months of summer

34 1800 UTC 6 July 2003 (Pure): MODIS Visible Satellite http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/ Questions? pwilson@atmos.albany.edu

35 Mixed Case Example  19 June 2002 (Atlantic)

36 1200 UTC 19 June 2002: 200 hPa NARR Analysis Mixed 2 4 6 8 10

37 1200 UTC 19 June 2002: 500 hPa NARR Analysis Mixed 4 8 12 16 20 24 28

38 1200 UTC 19 June 2002: Surface NARR Analysis Mixed WAL

39 1200 UTC 19 June 2002: Sounding http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html Parcel taken from lowest 500 m to determine CAPE Mixed

40 1800 UTC 19 June 2002: 500 hPa Vorticity NARR Analysis Mixed −10 −8 −6 −4 −2 2 4 6 8 10

41 1800 UTC 19 June 2002: 925 hPa RUC Analysis Mixed 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360

42 1800 UTC 19 June 2002: CAPE and 1000–700 hPa Wind Shear RUC Analysis Mixed 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

43 1800 UTC 19 June 2002: Surface Observations Mixed

44 1800 UTC 19 June 2002: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Mixed

45 1900 UTC 19 June 2002: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Mixed

46 2000 UTC 19 June 2002: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Mixed

47 2100 UTC 19 June 2002: Radar 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Mixed

48 1732 UTC 19 June 2002: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Mixed

49 1902 UTC 19 June 2002: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Mixed

50 2002 UTC 19 June 2002: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Mixed

51 2132 UTC 19 June 2002: Visible Satellite http://dcdbs.ssec.wisc.edu/inventory Mixed

52 19 June 2002: SPC Storm Reports http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo/ Mixed

53 Mixed Case Conclusions  Troughs generally in place at surface or aloft  20°C < T < 30°C, 10°C < T d < 20°C  Placement and timing signal given by 925 hPa θ e -ridge axis (320 K < θ e < 350 K)  Cyclonic vorticity and cyclonic vorticity advection important  Boundary intersections enhance convection  Occur most often during late spring, early autumn, and cooler portions of summer

54 Null Case Example  11 July 2006 (Atlantic)

55 1200 UTC 11 July 2006: 200 hPa NARR Analysis Null 2 4 6 8 10

56 1200 UTC 11 July 2006: 500 hPa NARR Analysis Null 4 8 12 16 20 24 28

57 1200 UTC 11 July 2006: Surface NARR Analysis Null OKX CHH

58 1200 UTC 11 July 2006: Sounding http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html Parcel taken from lowest 500 m to determine CAPE Null

59 1200 UTC 11 July 2006: Sounding http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html Parcel taken from lowest 500 m to determine CAPE Null

60 1500 UTC 11 July 2006: CAPE and 1000–700 hPa Wind Shear RUC Analysis Null 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

61 1500 UTC 11 July 2006: Surface Observations Null

62 1800 UTC 11 July 2006: Surface Observations Null

63 1800 UTC 11 July 2006: 925 hPa RUC Analysis Null 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360

64 1600 UTC 11 July 2006: Radar Null 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

65 1700 UTC 11 July 2006: Radar Null 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

66 1800 UTC 11 July 2006: Radar Null 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

67 1900 UTC 11 July 2006: Radar Null 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

68 2000 UTC 11 July 2006: Radar Null 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

69 2100 UTC 11 July 2006: Radar Null 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

70 11 July 2006: SPC Storm Reports http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo Null

71 24-hour Quantitative Precipitation Estimates ending at 1200 UTC 12 July 2006 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/npvu/archive/rfc.shtml Null

72 Null Case Conclusions  Convection forms from previous factors unrelated to effects of lake or sea breezes  Convection is suppressed as the marine boundary layer is too stable to maintain updrafts (less CAPE, more CIN)  Significant θ e difference between the contrasting air masses  Conditions for severe convection may be quite favorable aloft in the null region due to synoptic patterns  Key to these cases is boundary layer characteristics

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