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Performance Report Student Managed Fund MBA class of 2005 March 3, 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Performance Report Student Managed Fund MBA class of 2005 March 3, 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Performance Report Student Managed Fund MBA class of 2005 March 3, 2005

2 2 MBA Fund Managers  Christophe Pane  Luis Prandini  Stephen Petretto  Igor Lemagic  Rajiv Iyer  Jie Wan  Ashley Martella  Yun Cai  Amit Kumar  Sampita Ray  Gabriel Joanes

3 3 Performance Highlights (Sept 24,2004 thru February 11,2005) SMF PORTFOLIO S & P 500 Portfolio Value (9/24/04)$410,918.251,110.11 Portfolio Value (2/11/05)$958,082.81(*)1,205.30 Holding Period Return (9/24/04 thru 2/11/05) 11.48%8.57% Annualized Return (%)29.93%22.36% Beta0.891 Annualized Standard Deviation 10.04%11.11% Sharpe Ratio**2.571.64 Treynor Index**28.9518.18 Alpha4.67% *An additional $500,000 was added to the portfolio as of Jan,19 2005. **Based on risk- free rate of 4.2%.

4 4 Agenda  Investment Methodology  Portfolio Performance & Attribution Analysis  Economic Outlook and Allocation

5 5  Blend Strategy  Combination of value and growth  Multi-Cap Fund Investment Strategy and Style Mid Caps 5 stocks Small Caps 1 stock Large Caps 23 stocks  Primarily investments in large-cap stocks Number of holdings as of 02/25/05: 29 Market Capitalization

6 6 Investment Philosophy  Fundamental analysis  Historical performance  Valuation models  Business models  Future Prospects  Economic outlook for the industry  Long-term (3-5 year) investment horizon  Benchmark: S&P500 Index  Selecting stocks with potential  Close monitoring of the portfolio

7 7 Investment Approach Sector Allocation Valuation Models PEG and P/E Models Dividend Discount Model Free Cash Flow Model Stock Selection Fundamental Analysis Business Model Analysis Ratio Analysis Future Prospects Top Down Approach

8 8 Stock Selection Criteria We look for:  Solid financials  Strong management  Earnings growth  Attractive valuation relative to peers  Higher return/risk relative to industry “If the choice is between a questionable business at a comfortable price or a comfortable business at a questionable price, we much prefer the latter.”

9 Buy & Sell Discipline  Buy Criteria  Steady growth rates  Intrinsic value > market value  Above average expected returns  Sell Review Criteria  Stock reaches our target return  Predetermined stop loss prices  Risk/reward profile deteriorates  Actual earnings figures lower than estimates

10 10 Management Style  Active Management  Report presentation and voting  Performance Monitoring  Stop Loss Measures (15%)  Appreciation Reevaluation (20%)  Continuous Monitoring & Dynamic Response

11 11 Sector Allocation (as of 02/11/2005) Top 5 sectors: Financials Industrials Consumer Disc. IT Health Care

12 12 Detailed Sector Allocation (as of 02/11/2005) COMPANY NAME TRADE DATE # SHARES COST ($) CURRENT PRICE ($) CURRENT VALUE ($) % RETURN % OF PORTFOLIO HEALTHCARE Aetna Inc. 27-Oct-04200 $89.41 $133.50 $26,700.00 *49.31% 2.79% ENERGY Valero Energy 27-Oct-04500 $44.00 $61.43 $30,715.00 39.61% 3.21% FINANCIALS Citigroup 22-Oct-04500 $42.80 $49.40 $24,700.00 15.42% 2.58% Commerce Bancorp22-Dec-04600 $60.03 $57.74 $34,644.00-3.81%3.62% Hartford F. Services 12-Nov-04350 $62.00 $73.76 $25,816.00 18.97% 2.69% ING Group (ADR)9-Nov-04300 $26.71 $29.31 $8,793.009.73%0.92% CONSUMER STAPLES Coca-Cola22-Sep-04300 $40.46 $42.76 $12,828.005.68%1.34% Walgreen's 22-Nov-04400 $37.93 $42.81 $17,124.00 12.87% 1.79% * Best Performer until 02/11

13 13 Detailed Sector Allocation (as of 02/11/2005) CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY Comcast Corp. 15-Oct-04375 $28.77 $31.53 $11,823.75 9.59% 1.23% Starwood Hotels28-Dec-04350 $59.01 $59.00 $20,650.00-0.02%2.16% Lions Gate Entertain.11-Feb-053000 $10.42 $10.44 $31,320.000.19%3.27% Viacom B6-Oct-04500 $35.21 $37.44 $18,720.006.33%1.95% INDUSTRIALS Fedex Corp. 15-Nov-04260 $95.12 $98.01 $25,482.60 3.04% 2.66% Masco Corp.22-Dec-04500 $36.46 $37.19 $18,595.002.00%1.94% 3M Corp.15-Nov-04200 $82.64 $84.04 $16,808.001.69%1.75% INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Cisco Systems3-Dec-041000 $19.50 $17.70 $17,700.00-9.23%1.85% Flextronics28-Dec-041000 $13.80 $14.15 $14,150.002.54%1.48% SAP AG (ADR)8-Feb-05750 $39.24 $39.86 $29,895.001.58%3.12% UTILITIES Dominion Resources 23-Nov-04150 $66.71 $70.63 $10,594.50 5.88% 1.11% INDEX FUND and CASH Vanguard S&P500 Index27-Jan-05686 $103.26 $110.46 $75,775.566.97%7.91% CASH $485,248.40 50.65%

14 14 Performance Highlights (Sept 24,2004 thru February 11,2005) SMF PORTFOLIO S & P 500 Portfolio Value (9/24/04)$410,918.251,110.11 Portfolio Value (2/11/05)$958,082.81(*)1,205.30 Holding Period Return (9/24/04 thru 2/11/05) 11.48%8.57% Annualized Return (%)29.93%22.36% Beta0.891 Annualized Standard Deviation 10.04%11.11% Sharpe Ratio**2.571.64 Treynor Index**28.9518.18 Alpha4.67% *An additional $500,000 was added to the portfolio as of Jan,19 2005. **Based on risk- free rate of 4.2%.

15 15 Portfolio Performance Attribution Excess Return = Stock Selection + Sector Allocation + Cash Position Period: September 24, 2004 to February 11, 2005

16 16 Current State of the SMF Portfolio (since Feb. 11) Positions Added:  Apache Corporation, PetroChina (Energy)  Ameritrade, E*Trade, MBNA (Financials)  Invitrogen (Health Care)  Sysco Foods (Consumer Staples)  Dunn & Bradstreet, Tyco International (Industrials)  Florida Power & Light Group, Inc. (Utilities) Positions Increased:  Comcast and Starwood Hotels (Consumer Discretionary)  Hartford Financial Services (Financials)

17 17 Portfolio Summary  Market Value at Feb. 25, 2005: $967,397  Current number of stocks: 29  Total amount yet to be allocated: $160,653  Top 10 holdings: Apache Corporation – 4.43% Dun & Bradstreet – 4.45% Tyco International – 4.24% Hartford Financial Services – 4.12% E*Trade - 4.07% FPL Group - 4.06% MBNA Corporation - 4.04% Invitrogen Corp. – 3.97%

18 18 Portfolio Summary  Top 10 holdings: Commerce Bancorp – 3.72% Sysco Foods – 3.63%

19 19 Economic Outlook  Expected GDP growth of over 3% for 2005, albeit lower than 2004.  Core Inflation expected to rise; prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier.  Long-term interest rates are still low; flattening yield curve.  Federal Reserve is expected to continue increasing the federal-funds rate at “measured” pace.  Mergers-and-acquisitions market is picking up steam – favorable development for equities.  Situation in Iraq puts pressure on oil price and maintain high level of uncertainty.  Energy,industrials,materials, utilities expected to lead market.

20 20 Industry Outlook SectorWeightOutlook Consumer Discretionary OverweightFavorable Consumer Staples UnderweightFavorable EnergyNeutralFavorable FinancialsOverweightFavorable HealthcareUnderweightFavorable IndustrialsOverweightFavorable ITUnderweightUnfavorable MaterialsUnderweightFavorable TelecomUnderweightUnfavorable UtilitiesUnderweightFavorable

21 21 Fulfilled Portfolio Objectives Performance surpassed S&P 500 Lower Risk Level Invested primarily in Large Cap U.S. Equities Chose only fundamentally strong companies WRAP UP Top Performers Aetna (AET)-49.31% Valero (VLO)-39.61% Hartford (HIG)-18.97% Worst Performers Cisco (CSCO)- (9.23%) Pfizer (PFE)- (16.83%) CACI (CAI)- (16.98%)

22 22 Takeaways Valuation Highly Dependent on Analyst’s Assumptions Stop Losses can sometimes work against you Have patience Stick to your strategy and convictions Enjoy the extraordinary learning opportunity

23 23 Thank you. University of Connecticut Foundation Inc. Investment Advisory Board Dr. Chinmoy Ghosh

24 24 Q & A ?


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