1. Sufficient statistics. The Poisson and the exponential can be summarized by (n, ). So too can the normal with known variance Consider a statistic S(Y) Suppose that the conditional distribution of Y given S does not depend on , then S is a sufficient statistic for  based on Y Occurs iff the density of Y factors into a function of s(y) and  and a function of y that doesn't depend on  More Chapter 4

2. Example. Exponential IExp(  ) ~ Y E(Y) =  Var(Y) =  2 Data y 1,...,y n L(  ) =   -1 exp(-  y j /  ) l(  ) = -nlog(  ) -  y j /   y j /n is sufficient

3. maximum

4. =

6. Approximate 100(1-2  )% CI for  0 Example. spring data

7. Weibull.

8. Note. Expected information

9. Gamma.

10. Example. Bernoulli Pr{Y = 1} = 1 - Pr{Y = 0} =  0    1 L(  ) =   ^y i (1 -  )^(1-y i ) =  r (1 -  ) n-r l(  ) = rlog(  ) + (n-r)log(1-  ) r =  y j R =  Y j is sufficient for , as is R/n L(  ) factors into a function of r and a constant

11. Score vector  [ y j /  - (n-y j )/(1-  )] Observed information  [y j /  2 + (n-y j )/(1-  ) 2 ] M.l.e.

12. Cauchy. ICau(  ) f(y;  ) = 1/  (1+(y-  ) 2 ) E|Y| =  Var(Y) =  L(  ) =  1/(  (1+(y j -  ) 2 ) Many local maxima l(  ) = -  log(1+(y j -  ) 2 ) J(  ) = 2  ((1-(y j -  ) 2 )/(1+(y j -  ) 2 ) 2 I(  ) = n/2

14. Uniform. f(u;  ) = 1/  0 < u <  = 0 otherwise L(  ) = 1/  n 0 < y 1,..., y n <  = 0 otherwise

15. l(  ) becomes increasingly spikey E u(  ) = -1 i(  ) = - 

16. Logistic regression. Challenger data Ibinomials R j, m j,  j

18. Likelihood ratio. Model includes  dim(  ) = p true (unknown) value  0 Likelihood ratio statistic

19. Justification. Multinormal result If Y ~ N ( ,  ) then (Y-  ) T  -1 (Y-  ) ~  p 2

20. Uses. Pr[W(  0 )  c p (1-2  )]  1-2  Approx 100(1-2  )% confidence region

21. Example. exponential Spring data: 96 <  <335 vs. asymp normal approx 64 <  <273 kcycles

22. Prob-value/P-value. See (7.28) Choose T whose large values cast doubt on H 0 Pr 0 (T  t obs ) Example. Spring data Exponential E(Y) =  H 0 :  = 100?

23. Nesting  : p by 1 parameter of interest : q by 1 nuisance parameter Model with params (  0, ) nested within ( , ) Second model reduces to first when  =  0

24. Example. Weibull params ( ,  ) exponential when  = 1      How to examine H 0 :  = 1?

25. Spring failure times. Weibull

26. Challenger data. Logistic regression temperature x 1 pressure x 2  (  0,  1,  2 ) = exp{  }/(1+exp{  })  =  0 +  1 x 1 +  2 x 2 linear predictor loglike l(  0,  1,  2 ) =  0  r j +  1  r j x 1j +  2  r j x 2j - m  log(1+exp{  j }) Does pressure matter?

27. Model fit. Are labor times Weibull? Nest its model in a more general one Generalized gamma. Gamma for  =1 Weibull for  =1 Exponential for  =  =1

28. Likelihood results. max log likelihood: generalized gamma -250.65 gamma -251.12 Weibull -251.17 gamma vs. generalized gamma - 2 log like diff: 2(-250.65+251.12) =.94 P-value Pr 0 (  1 2 >.94) = Pr(|Z|>.969) = 2(.166) =.332

29. Chi-squared statistics. Pearson's chi-squared categories 1,...,k count of cases in category i: Y i Pr(case in i) =  i 0 <  i < 1  1 k  i =1 E(Y i ) = n  i var(Y i ) =  i (1 -  i )n cov(Y i,Y j ) = -  i  j n i  j E.g. k=2 case cov(Y,n-Y) = -var(Y) = -n  1  2  = { (  1,...,  k ):  1 k  i = 1, 0<  1,...,  k <1} dimension k-1

30. Reduced dimension possible? model  i ( ) dim( ) = p log like general model:  1 k-1 y i log  i + y k log[1-  1 -...-  k-1 ],  1 k y i = n log like restricted model: l( ) =  1 k-1 y i log  i ( ) + y k log[1-  1 ( )-...-  k-1 ( )]

31. likelihood ratio statistic: if restricted model true The statistic is sometimes written W = 2  O i log(O i /E i )   (O i - E i ) 2 /E i

32. Pearson's chi-squared.

33. Example. Birth data. Poisson? Split into k=13 categories [0,7.5), [7.5,8.5),...[18.5,24] hours O(bserved) 6 3 3 8... E(xpected) 5.23 4.37 6.26 8.08... P = 4.39 P-value Pr(  11 2 > 4.39) =.96

34. Two way contingency table. r rows and c columns n individuals Blood groups A, B, AB, O A, B antigens - substance causing body to produce antibodies group count model I model II O = 1 - A - B

36. Question. Rows and columns independent? W = 2  y ij log ny ij / y i. y.j with y i. =  j y ij ~  k-1-p 2 =  (r-1)c-1) 2 with k=rc p=(r-1)+(c-1) P =  (y ij - y i. y.j /n) 2 / (y i. y.j /n) ~  (r-1)(c-1) 2

37. Model 1 W = 17.66 Pr(  1 2 > 17.66) = Pr(|Z| > 4.202) = 2.646E-05 P = 15.73 Pr(  1 2 > 15.73) = Pr(|Z| > 3.966) = 7.309E-05 k-1-p = 4-1-2 = 1 Model 2 W = 3.17 Pr(|Z| > 1.780) =.075 P = 2.82 Pr(|Z|>1.679) =.093

38. Incorrect model. True model g(y), fit f(y;  )

39. Example 1. Quadratic, fit linear

40. Example 2. True lognormal, but fit exponential

41. Large sample distribution.

42. Model selection. Various models: non-nested Ockham's razor. Prefer the simplest model

43. Formal criteria. Look for minimum

44. Example. Spring failure ModelpAICBIC M 1 12744.8*769.9* M 2 7771.8786.5 M 3 2827.8831.2 M 4 2925.1929.3 6 stress levels M 1 : Weibull - unconnected ,  at each stress level