1. CHER 2011 University of Iceland Reykjavík Iceland June 24 th -26 th Is there an invariance in educational expansion? Jón Torfi Jónasson jtj@hi.ishttp://www.hi.is/~jtj/ School of Education, University of Iceland

2. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland2 Schofer, E., & Meyer, J. W. (2005). The Worldwide Expansion of Higher Education in the Twentieth Century. American Sociological Review 70, 898-920.

3. The preamble Growth of education Credentialism The question of robustness, invariance The dependent variables – Registration at a certain level of education – Degrees awarded – Students entering the education – Controlling for population changes; cohort corrections The independent variables – Cultures – Gender – Age – Social groups Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 3

4. The story of the analysis The growth of education in Iceland, both university entrance examination and university enrolment Comparison with the other Nordic countries for upper secondary education Jón Torfi Jónasson. (2003). Does the state expand schooling? A a study based on five Nordic countries. Comparative Education Review, 47(2), 160-183. Green, Thomas F., David P. Ericson, and Robert Seidman. Predicting the behavior of the Educational System: Syracuse University Press, 1980, showed that growth of high school education in the US is predicable; can be shown to be essentially exponential (JTJ). An example of the Icelandic situation Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 4

5. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970 5

6. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1980 6

7. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1990 7

8. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1995 8

9. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-2000 9

10. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-2010 10

11. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970-2010 11

12. But what about “very different” systems? Consider the HE systems in the US and Japan as examples. First the US then Japan. The method. 1. Consider the enrolment in HE in the growth period after the second war, which is often considered to show growth attached to optimism and belief in education. Many writers refer to the explosion in educational attendance during this period. 2. Consider what would be predicted on the basis of prior developments i.e. for the first part of the 20 th century using the exponential fit. 3. Consider then what would be predicted for the rest of the 20 th century. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 12

13. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 13

14. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 14

15. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 15

16. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 16

17. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 17

18. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 18

19. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 19

20. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 20

21. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 21

22. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in Japan 1900-2004 22

23. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland Higher education: enrolment in the US 1900-2008 23

24. Gender, degrees and age, first some data from Iceland The period 1997-2009; ISCED 5, graduations from university Based on data from Statistics Iceland First age and gender Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 24

25. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 25

26. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 26

27. The Swedish case; Gender, degrees and age: Three graphs – 1.The basics: The fit of the exponent, an example for 25 year old males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses – 2. The fit of the exponent, for ages between 24 and 39 males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses – 3. The same as previous but now with the fit of the exponents for males and females graduating from 3-3,5 year degree courses and 4-4,5 degree courses Based on data graciously provided by Statistics Sweden in May and June 2011. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 27

28. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 28

29. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 29

30. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 30

31. Different social groups Consider the three groups in the US, the hispanics, the blacks and the white. – Note the growth rate for each – Note the gender differences – Note the similarities between the groups, in terms of Gender growth rates and the differences between the gender Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 31

32. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 32

33. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 33

34. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 34

35. Conclusions We find similar, robustness similar long-term trends similar gender similarites similar gender differences across cultures social groups age groups Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 35

36. Conclusions In order to understand the mechanisms of growth we should look at the gender effects but especially the age effects and the effects and trends within different degrees e.g. low growth rates for certain ages for males may only tell a very small part of the story we suggest that essentially the same patterns are pretty universal and thus there is some important invariance over cultures and social groups we can expect massive growth over the next decades very much as hitherto Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 36

37. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland37

38. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland38

39. Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland39

40. Thank you Kærar þakkir Jón Torfi Jónasson - CHER 2011 Iceland 40