1. POL 168 Chican@/Latin@ Politics Professor Jones Dept. of Political Science UC-Davis Summer 2009

2. Demographics and Politics Let’s segue into demographics by thinking about the recent presidential election. Tom Tancredo ads were highly controversial… …this despite his failure to gain any traction in the 2008 GOP contest. View some ads then discuss

3. Images: Tancredo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zng6I74 L5QY&feature=relatedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zng6I74 L5QY&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBK7bW h1m04&NR=1http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBK7bW h1m04&NR=1 http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=Tea mTancredohttp://www.youtube.com/profile?user=Tea mTancredo

4. Discussion Major Themes? Who is the intended audience? Would you call that “race-baiting”? Was a major issue among voters …especially Republican voters in the 08 primaries. http://youtube.com/watch?v=AjVdALIgfBI Leading issue in South Carolina South Carolina

5. Census Data… South Carolina http://www.censusscope.org/us/s45/chart_ race.htmlhttp://www.censusscope.org/us/s45/chart_ race.html

6. Who are “Latinos”? What counts as “Latino”…as “Hispanic” The problem of “Spanish Origin” 22 Countries satisfy this condition Is it fair to say that anyone from one of these 22 countries is “just like” anyone from another of these 22 countries. How should we view “Latinos” A bloc? Monolithic interests? Pan-ethnicity vs. Groups

7. Counting Latin@s Census Enumeration –First systematic effort was in 1970 –The “ethnicity” item: Spanish Origin? –Implication: 22 countries constitute Spanish origin. –But, anyone can claim Hispanic identity. 2000 Census marked major change –Multiple races could be checked. What does the Census form look like?

8. How do we know what we know?

11. What? It is clear the demarcation between race and ethnicity is far from clear. 42 percent of “Hispanic origin” claim “other” as race. The boundaries are fuzzy. Note also that Census bureau demarcates different kinds of groups… But typically provides data aggregated over the groups i.e. “Hispanics”

12. Population Change Important for you to understand massive shift in population characteristics taking place in US We measure this best with Census data. Useful to look at some data. …and put it in context.

16. Take-away points? Southern Exposure Contact Probabilities much higher… Even if overall population levels are low. Implications for these big changes? Understand that the population increases are not solely from a single country.

17. Who are “Latinos”? Where are “Latinos” from? “Border Invasion” Implies the population is largely of Mexican descent. In fact, it is… However, substantial populations exist from Central and Latin American nations. Some Data

21. Current Estimates and Projections U.S. Population will be “majority-minority” by about 2050. Largest growth rate among minority populations are “Hispanic origin” Remember, we’re tied to Census definitions here. What will it mean to be a “minority” in the future? “Minority” status becoming more and more awkward in some local settings.

23. Population Estimates: US Census Bureau

24. More Clips for Thought from the 2008 Primary Season Ron Paul: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T- iJKwskH4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T- iJKwskH4 Bi-Partisan Attack Ad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qiw85f5 fYGY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qiw85f5 fYGY

25. Percent Distribution of Hispanics by Type: 2006 Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2006

26. Hispanic Population by Type: 2006 Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2006

27. Nativity by Type of Hispanic Origin: 2006 Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2006

28. Implications of Nativity The majority of “Hispanics” (that the Census counts) are native born. But again, we are tied to the Census counts. Who might the Census not count? By the way, why might we care about these numbers, politically? Especially if the population is becoming more geographically dispersed.

29. Percent Hispanic by Region : 2006 Source: Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2006

30. This not just a Western/Southwestern “Issue” Of course, what is the issue? –Immigration? –Jobs? –Health Care? Given demographic shifts, it is not surprising to observe importance of immigration debate.

31. Clips for Thought Humorous Clip (not meaning to pick on the President!) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBskbZ 9Pl6Ahttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBskbZ 9Pl6A Manassas Controversy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9rnC9 UZhV0&feature=relatedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9rnC9 UZhV0&feature=related

32. Some Data Let’s take a look at population change: http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_hisp anicpop.htmlhttp://www.censusscope.org/us/map_hisp anicpop.html

33. Subgroups Mexican (by far, the dominant Latino group) 65.5 percent of Latino population. Geographically settled in California and Southwest but moving upward and eastward. Puerto Rican (8.6 percent) Geographically located primarily in east, particularly NYC/East Coast cities Central and South American Origin on the rise. Settling in the South.

34. “Factoids” about the Mexican Population 70 Percent of Californian Mexican Population are U.S. Citizens Implications? Mobilization? Immigration and Undocumented Migration Consider some data.

35. Immigration Flows

39. OTM Census Category: Other than Mexican Used to demarcate individuals other than Mexican More on this later. Some data…

40. Mexican and “OTM” Apprehensions

42. Context What do all these data mean? Widely dispersed population From widely dispersed areas Potential impact in the 2008 election? …and beyond? (Redistricting, local elections, etc.)