1. NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and Melissa Burgess

2. Background Dec 2000/Jan 2001: significant reduction in heroin supply, purity and increase in cost –Onset of ‘heroin shortage’ Concerns about drug substitution –Cocaine and amphetamines (ATS) Fears about ATS –Effects (psychosis, violence, depression) –Australian treatment methods centred around heroin addiction

3. Previous studies Previous research has found mixed results: –Darke et al (2006) found a drop in ATS use –Maher (2007), Longo (2004) found an increase Previous research has been hampered by unrepresentative samples and low sample sizes

4. Current study Aim: To determine whether there was evidence of a switch from heroin to ATS as a result of the heroin shortage Data: use/possess series for narcotics and amphetamines, Jan 1995 – Sept 2007 Method: Vector auto regression (VAR) and ARIMA modelling

5. Methodological issues Narcotics use/possess as a proxy for heroin? Are use/possess arrests a good indicator for drug use?

6. Emergency admissions vs. Arrests rates: Heroin

7. Emergency admissions vs. Arrest rates: ATS

8. Methodological issues Narcotics use/possess as a proxy for heroin? Are use/possess arrests a good indicator for drug use? When did the heroin shortage start?

9. Amphetamines and narcotics use/possess

10. Correlations

11. Methodological issues Narcotics use/possess as a proxy for heroin? Are use/possess arrests a good indicator for drug use? When did the heroin shortage start? Is narcotics use centred around different locations than ATS use?

12. Map of narcotics arrests

13. Map of amphetamine arrests

14. Types of analysis Vector autoregression –Whole of NSW –High use LGAs: Sydney, Marrickville, Bankstown, Liverpool, Fairfield, Wollongong, Newcastle ARIMA regression –Entire time period (Jan 1995 – Sept 2007) –After first drop (Mar 1999 – Sept 2007) –After onset of ‘heroin shortage’ (Dec 2000 – Sept 2007) –Period of heroin drop (Mar 1999 – Apr 2002)

15. VAR Results – High use LGAs VAR Results – NSW

16. Results - ARIMA

17. Summary and discussion No evidence of drug substitution was found Although ATS use increased after the ‘shortage’, this is part of a long term increasing trend

18. Amphetamines use/possess, 1995 – 2007

19. Summary and discussion No evidence of drug substitution was found Although ATS use increased after the ‘shortage’, this is part of a long term increasing trend Rather than focusing on heroin and supply reduction policies, need to focus on ATS use and how this can be reduced Note that these results hold for NSW only