1. 1 Business 90: Business Statistics Professor David Mease Sec 03, T R 7:30-8:45AM BBC 204 Lecture 12 = Start Chapter “ Basic Probability” (BP) Agenda: 1) Go over Homework 4 Solutions 2) Reminder about Midterm Exam (Tuesday 3/16) 3) Assign Homework 5 (due Thursday 3/11) 4) Announcement: no office hours today (3/4) 5) Start Chapter BP 6) Take Quiz over Homework 4

2. 2 Homework 4 – Due Thursday 3/4 1) Read chapter entitled “Numerical Descriptive Measures”. 2) In that chapter do textbook problems 5, 8 and 9 by hand AND check the answers using Excel. 3) The data at (http://www.cob.sjsu.edu/mease_d/freethrows.xls) gives free throw percentages for NBA basketball players for the 2005-2006 season. a) Give the 5 number summary for the free throw percentages. b) Graph the box-and-whisker plot by hand. c) Based on your box-and-whisker plot, describe the shape of the data as left-skewed, symmetric or right-skewed. d) Use Excel to compute the mean, variance and standard deviation. e) Using your values from part d, give the empirical rule for this data.http://www.cob.sjsu.edu/mease_d/freethrows.xls 4) Review In Class Exercise #46. (There will be one like this on the quiz.)

3. 3 In class exercise #46: Match each plot with its correct coefficient of correlation. Choices: r=-3.20, r=-0.98, r=0.86, r=0.95, r=1.20, r=-0.96, r=-0.40 A) B) C) D)E)

4. 4 Midterm Exam: Midterm Exam on Tuesday, March 16 You will NOT be able to use Excel or any notes for the exam, so make sure you know how to do everything by hand (with the help of a calculator). Be sure to bring your calculator. The exam will cover chapters IADC, PDITAC (plus least squares regression from p. 387-398), NDM and BP. Worth 100 points Seats will be assigned when you enter the room.

5. 5 1) Read chapter entitled “Basic Probability”. 2) In that chapter do problems 4, 8, 12, 14, 17, 20, 23, 31 and 34. Homework 5 - Due Thursday 3/11

6. 6 Announcement: Today (3/4) I will not have office hours. If you need to talk to me please email me or call (419- 944-9652).

7. 7 Basic Probability Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft ® Excel 4 th Edition

8. 8 Chapter Goals After completing this chapter, you should be able to: Explain basic probability concepts and definitions Use contingency tables to view a sample space Apply common rules of probability Compute conditional probabilities Determine whether events are statistically independent

9. 9 In class exercise #47: Figure out the following probabilities. 1) What is the probability of getting a tail on a coin flip? 2) What is the probability of getting two tails in two flips? 3) What is the probability of rolling a 4 with a die? From a single draw from a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability of getting 4) a king? 5) a heart? 6) a red card? 7) a heart if I already know it is a red card? 8) a card that is red AND a king? 9) a card that is red OR a king? 10) a card that is an ace AND a king? 11) If there is a 60% chance of rain, what is the probability it will not rain? 12) In a group of 50 people, what is the probability at least two have the same birthday? (Just guess)

10. 10 Important Probability Rules Mutually Exclusive: P(not A) = 1- P(A) Complement Rule: P(A and B) = 0 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) General Addition Rule (p. 171):

11. 11 Important Probability Rules Conditional Probability (p.176): General Multiplication Rule (p. 180): Statistically Independent (p. 179):