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Olivier De Jonghe Discussion of “A market-based measure of credit quality and Banks’ performance during the subprime crisis” By Martin Knaup Wolf Wagner
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-Information impounded in bank asset prices -Stock return decomposition: -Systematic risk (market beta) -Interest rate risk (Flannery and James, JF 1984) -Inflation (Dermine and Lajeri, JBF 1999) -Exchange rate risk -Term risk (Viale et al., JBF 2009) -Default risk -… Bank asset prices Emerging scholars in Banking and Finance
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-Default risk factor: -Yield difference between Baa and Aaa corporate bonds -Pros and Cons of your approach + High and Low risk Credit risk indicator ( H/(H+L)) -Short time period -Only 35 substituents in cross-over index CDS spreads vs bond spreads: are they cleaner? may turn – into = Credit quality Emerging scholars in Banking and Finance
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“ Our proposed credit risk indicator differs conceptually from other market-based measures, such as DtD or (bank) CDS spreads. While these measures focus on the current riskiness of a bank, the CRI measures the perceived exposure of a bank to an economic downturn (in which high risk assets presumably perform worse than low risk assets).” Still depends on predicting an economic downturn -Time-varying betas (regime switches) -Tail beta: extreme system(at)ic risk -Hartmann et al. (2006) -De Jonghe (JFI, forthcoming) On the motivation Emerging scholars in Banking and Finance
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-Order of factors/shock (Choleski) -In this paper: XO versus IG is irrelevant Role of market factor Orthogonalization Emerging scholars in Banking and Finance
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Mapping between model and estimations Model is in MVE= P*NOSH – ∆p= absolute change in bank’s share price – Not relative change, i.e. return – How did you normalize stock index? Correspondence to return-based market models? – Market beta of 0.03 – What are loadings of CDS XO, CDS IG in return model? – Similar CRI? Absolute price changes Emerging scholars in Banking and Finance
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Is average CRI of 0.11 plausible? Multiple regimes in CRI? Calm vs stress? What is economic significance of XO and IG? To what extent does fit of regression increase? Are bank-specific coefficients on XO and IG significant? INTERESTING PAPER! Other comments Emerging scholars in Banking and Finance
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