2. Peru upwelling (Chl concentration)

4. Peru Fishery

5. Normal Peruvian coastal desert Flooded Peruvian dessert during El Niño

11. Definitions Southern Oscillation Index (SOI): the normalized difference in surface pressure between Tahiti (French Polynesia) and Darwin (Australia): a measure of the strength of the trade winds) El Niño: large scale weakening of the trade winds and warming of the surface layers in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean La Niña: stronger than normal trade winds and anomalously cold equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures ENSO: full range of variability observed in the Southern Oscillation Index

12. www.ldeo.columbia.edu

13. Southern Oscillation Index

15. www.ldeo.columbia.edu

16. Tropical Atmospheric Oceanic Project

17. Equatorial Pacific TAO Moorings

19. Sea Surface Height

21. www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao

23. El Ni ñ o Periodicity (~4 years?)

24. SST SST Anomaly (deviation from average)

25. SST anomalies off Peru coastline

26. Southern Oscillation Index

27. Forecasting ENSO

28. El Niño – Surface winds

29. El Nino – increase storms in Southern California

30. Los Angeles, 1955

31. La Niña - Floods in Pacific Northwest

32. ENSO & Precipitation

33. El Niño & hurricanes Linda 185 mph – 298 km/h September 1997

34. ENSO & human diseases Dengue or Yellow Fever Viral disease Vector:

35. Generalities of ENSO El NiñoLa Niña "Southern Oscillation"No "oscillation" Tradewinds failTradewinds increase Reverse flow of airNo reverse flow Elevated SSTDecreased SST Upwelling decreasedUpwelling increased Fish die in Peru Fish thrive (can still be a bad deal if fish prices drop) Dry areas floodedDry areas get drier (e.g., Florida) Wet areas dry upWet areas get flooded (e.g., Oregon)

36. El Niño La Niña

39. Spatio-temporal scales of effects on peruvian pelagic fisheries A. Bertrand Time Space Decade Inter-annual MonthSeasonYearDay Ocean Local Regional Basin Stock condition before ENSO Adapted reproduction Fishery pressure Local Upwelling ENSO strength and duration Inter-decadal regime Large scale forcing Small scale forcing

40. ENSO and pelagic fisheries: regime shift A. Bertrand Chavez et al 2003

41. (Chavez et al. 2002) A. Bertrand

42. (Chavez et al. 2002) A. Bertrand

43. Pacific Decadal Oscillation Warm PhaseCool Phase Wintertime Wind (arrows) and Sea Surface Temp (colors) - Affect the N. Pacific, with secondary signatures in the tropics (opposite for ENSO)

44. Pacific Decadal Oscillation 20-30 year duration

45. A. Bertrand Chavez et al 2003

46. A. Bertrand Chavez et al 2003