1. Understanding Magnetic Eruptions on the Sun and their Interplanetary Consequences A Solar and Heliospheric Research grant funded by the DoD MURI program George H. Fisher, PI Space Sciences Laboratory University of California, Berkeley

2. Goal Develop a state-of-the-art, observationally tested 3-D numerical modeling system for predicting magnetic eruptions on the Sun and the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Develop a state-of-the-art, observationally tested 3-D numerical modeling system for predicting magnetic eruptions on the Sun and the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).

3. Motivation The Sun drives the magnetic eruptions that initiate violent space weather events. The mechanisms that trigger and drive these eruptions are the least understood aspects of space weather. A better physical understanding of how magnetic eruptions occur on the Sun and how the disturbances propagate through the Heliosphere will surely lead to more accurate and longer range forecasts.

4. Approach Perform in-depth, coordinated space and ground based observations of magnetic eruptions and CME propagation Perform in-depth, coordinated space and ground based observations of magnetic eruptions and CME propagation Understand the physics of how magnetic eruptions are triggered and powered Understand the physics of how magnetic eruptions are triggered and powered Develop and test numerical models for the propagation of CMEs and the acceleration of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) Develop and test numerical models for the propagation of CMEs and the acceleration of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) Couple together the observationally tested models of the Sun and Heliosphere Couple together the observationally tested models of the Sun and Heliosphere

5. Institutions of Solar Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative Team UC Berkeley UC Berkeley Big Bear Solar Observatory (NJIT) Big Bear Solar Observatory (NJIT) Drexel University Drexel University Montana State University Montana State University Stanford University Stanford University UC San Diego UC San Diego University of Colorado University of Colorado University of Hawaii University of Hawaii University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire

6. Overview of Solar MURI 1.Active Region Emergence: Fisher & Abbett (UCB), LaBonte & Mickey (UH), Canfield (MSU), Liu (Stanford), Gallagher, Wang & Goode (BBSO) 2.Effects of Large Scale Field and Solar Cycle Evolution: Hoeksema, Scherrer, & Zhao (Stanford), Ledvina & Luhmann (UCB), Martens (MSU), Goode, Wang & Gallagher (BBSO) 3.Inner Corona: Forbes (UNH), MacNeice (Drexel), Abbett, Ledvina, Luhmann & Fisher (UCB), Kuhn & H. Lin (UH), Canfield & Longcope (MSU), Hoeksema, Scherrer & Zhao (Stanford) 4.Outer Corona, Solar Wind, SEPs: Odstrcil (CU), Jackson & Hick (UCSD), MacNeice (Drexel), Luhmann & R. Lin (UCB), Lee (UNH) 5.Geoeffects: Luhmann & R. Lin (UCB), Odstrcil (CU), Hoeksema & Zhao (Stanford)

7. New technology to measure magnetic fields in the corona Infra-red lines formed in solar corona can be used to measure magnetic fields. (H. Lin, J. Kuhn, UH)

8. Eruptive Flare of Aug. 5, 1999 (BBSO) Movie of Limb Observations in H  of a classic 2- ribbon flare, taken by Johns-Krull and Fisher (UCB)

9. Important Ingredients in the Genesis of Magnetic Eruptions Flux emergence Flux emergence Twist (helicity) Twist (helicity) Topology changes Topology changes

10. Flux Emergence in an Active Region Coupling between the ANMHD code describing the solar interior and ZEUS3D code for modeling the corona above an active region.

11. Sigmoids: The Role of Twisted Fields in Magnetic Eruptions Sigmoidal structures in the corona seem to be a precursor to magnetic eruptions

12. Sigmoidal Field Lines from a Twisted Emerging Active Region Coronal field lines computed with the ZEUS3D MHD code, driven at the photospheric boundary by flux emergence computed with the ANMHD code. The S- shaped field lines derive from a modestly twisted flux tube rising through the solar interior.

13. Changing Field Line Topology: A storm Precursor? Orientation of coronal arcade agrees with that of flux rope model fitted to WIND (ICME) observations Orientation of coronal arcade agrees with that of flux rope model fitted to WIND (ICME) observations

14. Two different ideas about how topology changes drive magnetic eruptions: Tether cutting Tether cutting Breakout Breakout

15. Simulations of Breakout Model Movie: 2 ½ d MHD simulations using AMR (MacNeice & Antiochos)

16. 3d ICME propagation in Heliosphere of July 14 2000 event Movie showing Reconstructed density in Heliosphere from IPS observations by Jackson & Hick (UCSD)

17. Simulations of ICME propagation MHD simulations of solar disturbances propagating into the Heliosphere can be followed from tens of solar radii out to 1 AU. Shown here is a depiction of a modeled disturbance at 1 AU (Odstrcil, CU)

18. Conclusions The quality and quantity of Solar and Heliospheric observations now available, in conjunction with rapid increases in computing power make this the right time to develop a coupled Solar and Heliospheric model. We expect to make great progress toward our goal over the next 5 years.