1. Use of urbanized meso-met models for air quality applications for Houston R. Bornstein, H. Taha, R. Balmori San Jose State University San Jose, CA pblmodel@hotmail.com presented at NOAA/EPA GOLDEN JUBILEE SYMPOSIUM DURHAM, NC, SEPT. 2005

2. MM5 applications at SJSU MM5 MM5 SFBA WINTER STORM (Lozej) SFBA WINTER STORM (Lozej) SCOS96 LA O EPISODE (Boucouvula) SCOS96 LA O 3 EPISODE (Boucouvula) ATLANTA UHI THUNDERSTORM (Craig) ATLANTA UHI THUNDERSTORM (Craig) CCOS2000 CENTRAL CALIF. O EPISODE (Ghidey) CCOS2000 CENTRAL CALIF. O 3 EPISODE (Ghidey) MID-EAST O EPISODE (Weinroth & Kasakesh) MID-EAST O 3 EPISODE (Weinroth & Kasakesh) uMM5 uMM5 *HOUSTON 2000 O EPISODE (Balmori & Taha) *HOUSTON 2000 O 3 EPISODE (Balmori & Taha) NYC EMERGENCY RESPONSE (Weinroth & Taha) NYC EMERGENCY RESPONSE (Weinroth & Taha)

3. Acknowledgements HOUSTON PARTNERS HOUSTON PARTNERS D. Byun, U. of Houston D. Byun, U. of Houston J. Ching & S. Dupont, US EPA J. Ching & S. Dupont, US EPA S. Burian, U. of Utah, EPA FUNDED S. Burian, U. of Utah, EPA FUNDED S. Stetson, SWS Inc. S. Stetson, SWS Inc. D. Nowak, USFS D. Nowak, USFS SJSU FUNDERS SJSU FUNDERS NSF, State of Texas, NASA NSF, State of Texas, NASA DOE/LBNL, DHS, CARB, USAID DOE/LBNL, DHS, CARB, USAID

4. OUTLINE uMM5 uMM5 FORMULATION FORMULATION CLUSTER CLUSTER HOUSTON APPLICATION HOUSTON APPLICATION SYNOPTIC FORCING SYNOPTIC FORCING MESOSCALE INFLUENCES MESOSCALE INFLUENCES UHI IMPACTS UHI IMPACTS CONCLUSION CONCLUSION WHAT WE FOUND WHAT WE FOUND FUTURE EFFORTS FUTURE EFFORTS

5. Urbanization Techniques Urbanize surface, SBL, & PBL Eqs. for momentum, thermo, & TKE Urbanize surface, SBL, & PBL Eqs. for momentum, thermo, & TKE From veg-canopy model (Yamada 1982) From veg-canopy model (Yamada 1982) Veg param replaced with urban (GIS/RS) data Veg param replaced with urban (GIS/RS) data Brown and Williams, 1998 Brown and Williams, 1998 *Masson, 2000 *Masson, 2000 *Martilli et al., 2001 (in TVM) *Martilli et al., 2001 (in TVM) *Dupont et al., 2003 (in MM5) *Dupont et al., 2003 (in MM5)

6. New GIS/RS inputs for uMM5 as f (x, y, z)  land use (38 categories)  roughness elements  anthropogenic heat as f (t)  vegetation and building heights  paved-surface fractions  drag-force coefficients for buildings & vegetation  building height-to-width, wall-plan, & impervious- area ratios  building frontal, plan, & and rooftop area densities  wall and roof: ε, cρ, α, etc.  vegetation: canopies, root zones, stomata resistances

7. MESO-MET ATM-MODEL MUST CAPTURES ALL BC-FORCING IN CORRECT ORDER O 3 EPISODES OCCUR ON A GIVEN DAY: O 3 EPISODES OCCUR ON A GIVEN DAY: NOT DUE TO CHANGES IN: TOPO, EMISSIONS, OR SFC MESO-FORCING (EXCEPT FOR FOG) NOT DUE TO CHANGES IN: TOPO, EMISSIONS, OR SFC MESO-FORCING (EXCEPT FOR FOG) BUT DUE TO CHANGES IN UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC WX PATTERNS, WHICH BUT DUE TO CHANGES IN UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC WX PATTERNS, WHICH COME FROM EXTERNAL MODEL & WHICH COME FROM EXTERNAL MODEL & WHICH ALTER MESO SFC-FORCING (i.e., LAND/SEA, SST, & URBAN) VIA MESO TEMP-GRAD & THUS MESO-WIND ALTER MESO SFC-FORCING (i.e., LAND/SEA, SST, & URBAN) VIA MESO TEMP-GRAD & THUS MESO-WIND MUST THUS EVALUATE ABOVE FACTORS IN ORDER: MUST THUS EVALUATE ABOVE FACTORS IN ORDER: UPPER LEVEL SYN Wx Patterns: p & then wind UPPER LEVEL SYN Wx Patterns: p & then wind TOPOGRAPHY (via grid spacing): flow-channeling TOPOGRAPHY (via grid spacing): flow-channeling MESO SFC (land-sea) Temp-grad & then wind MESO SFC (land-sea) Temp-grad & then wind

8. uMM5 for Houston O SIP uMM5 for Houston O 3 SIP GIS/RS gridded urban sfc parameters GIS/RS gridded urban sfc parameters uMM5 + urban-reforestation  uMM5 + urban-reforestation  reduced daytime max-UHI  uMM5 output into CMAQ/CAMx O-model  uMM5 output into CMAQ/CAMx O 3 -model  reduced: (natural & anthro) emissions & photolysis rates  lower O  reduced: (natural & anthro) emissions & photolysis rates  lower O 3  EPA-given emission-reduction credits  big $-savings

9. From S. Stetson: Houston z o data

10. HOUSTON MET SUMMARY Weak GC anticyclone at 700 hPa & sfc Weak GC anticyclone at 700 hPa & sfc Warm water in Gulf of Mx pushes cold water to Texas coast & forms offshore atm meso cold-core cyclone Warm water in Gulf of Mx pushes cold water to Texas coast & forms offshore atm meso cold-core cyclone Coastal along shore (& not onshore) atm winds blow industrial emissions over city, producing 0 episode Coastal along shore (& not onshore) atm winds blow industrial emissions over city, producing 0 3 episode

11. MM5 coastal cold- core L on episode day at 3 PM: Domains 1-3 L

12. Domain 4 (3 PM) : Note cold-core L off of Houston on O 3 day (25 th ) L L  Episode day: (along-shore coastal-flow)

13. Domain 3 (12 km) 4 PM: cold-core atm Low (from SST-eddy??) L

14. SST & cold-core lows: theory “Correct” wind direction + right angle coast  Sea-surface low-p eddy  Convergence  upwelling  Cold ocean-water  Cold-core atm low

16. Houston area meso-obs: Urban area retards cool sea-breeze air

17. Synoptic obs obs

18. Houston area meso-obs: onshore coastal-flow on day b/f episode

19. Houston area meso-obs: along-shore flow on episode day

20. uMM5 Domain 5 near-sfc winds at 3 PM: 4 successive days  Episode day: along-coast flow

21. Base-case (current) Houston vegetation cover (urban min) in 0.1’s Modeled increases in vegetation cover (urban max) in 0.01’s

22. Run 12 (max urban-reforestation) minus Run 10 (base case): near-sfc ∆T at 4 PM reforested central urban-area cools & surrounding deforested rural-areas warm

23. U1 sea Ru U2 CMAQ ozone modeling for Houston SIP: five tree-planting scenarios  reduced UHIs (right) in urban area (box 1, left)  lower max-ozone (not shown)  EPA emission-reduction credits  Max-impact on 3.5 K UHI, 1.5 K of which is from uMM5

24. CONCLUSIONS Need to capture changes in large scale forcing Need to capture changes in large scale forcing Need good urbanization for winds, temp, turbulence, etc. Need good urbanization for winds, temp, turbulence, etc. Need good SSTs, as horiz temp-gradient drives sea-breezes Need good SSTs, as horiz temp-gradient drives sea-breezes Urban-trees reduce daytime-UHIs & thus max-ozone Urban-trees reduce daytime-UHIs & thus max-ozone