1. Tidal Wave II: Implications for Outreach and Retention for California Higher Education Alan Nishio California State University, Long Beach March 13, 2004

2. Demographics

3. California’s Population Size 34 million 14 million larger than the next size state (Texas) One of nine Americans calls California home

4. California’s Population Growth Past fifty years, population has more than tripled. For the past decade, the number of new Californians each year would be the size of the City of Long Beach (450,000+) By 2020, population is projected to reach 42-50 million

5. 6.9 15.9 23.8 33.9 45.5 63.0 California’s Population, 1940-2040 (in millions) Source: California Department of Finance

6. First in Population Among States Second in African American Population First in Latino Population: 1 in 3 Latino children in U.S. live in California First in Asian population: 1 in 2 Asian children in the U.S. live in California One of every four Californians is an immigrant Without immigration, California’s population would decline California Demographics

7. California’s Ethnic Diversity, 2000 –50% White –31% Hispanic/Latino –11.5% Asian/Pacific Islander –6.8% African American

8. Ethnicity of California Population

9. Los Angeles County

10. Los Angeles County is.. The largest metropolitan area with 9.6 million residents, 3% of the nation. 27% of the population are children and teens under age 18. The world’s 18 th largest economy. Five of the top ten occupations in the number of new jobs pay less than poverty level wages. One-third of those in poverty are “working poor.”

11. Racial/Ethnic Composition of California Newborns, 1997 Source: California Department of Health Services

12. Ethnic Breakdown of California’s Population, 2000 vs. 2040 2000 2040 57% 26% 10%7% 50% 12%6% 32% Source: “Which Way California”- James Irvine Foundation

13. Poverty in California

14. In 1970, 1.9 million people were poor in California. By 2000, the number of poor had more than doubled to 4.37 million. Poverty has declined substantially in the last few years, yet poverty remains higher in California than the rest of the nation.

15. Poverty Rates Adjusted by Housing Costs, California and the Rest of the Nation, 1996-2000 Source: Public Policy Institute of California

16. Poverty and California’s Children California’s children are now 60% people of color One in four children in California is born to an unmarried mother The highest in the percentage of children living in poverty… 19% or roughly 1.75 million children. If there were a city containing only California’s poor under the age of 18, it would be the third largest city in the state.

17. Ethnic Composition of All California Children and Those Living in Poverty

18. The Linguistic Landscape of California’s Schools

19. Californians by Place of Birth, 1990

20. Total English Learner K-12 Students, 1981-2000 Source: California Department of Education

21. California K-12 Percentage of English Learners Source: California Department of Education

22. Percentage Increase in English Learner Population by Region, 1981- 2000 Source: California Department of Education

23. Educational Outcomes

24. Education of Mothers of Children Born in 1997 by Ethnicity Source: California Department of Health Services

25. Reading Proficiency for Grade 8 Public School Students by Ethnicity, 1998 Source: Ballator and Jerry, NAEP 1998 Reading State Report for California, 1999

26. Math Proficiency for Grade 8 Public School Students by Ethnicity, 1996 Source: Reese et. al., NAEP 1996 Mathematics State Report for California, 1997

27. Educational Opportunities

28. State Education Spending Per Pupil

29. Characteristics of Top and Bottom Quintiles of California Public High Schools Top Quintile Bottom Quintile Number of Schools151151 Percent urban12%54% Percent suburban69%19% Percent receiving AFDC support 5%28% Percent limited English proficient 7%31% Percent father w/ h.s. diploma or higher90%36% 4-year completion rate91%78% College prep course enrollment rate61%48% Percent of seniors taking SAT56%33% Average SAT score1007715 Percent Latino/Black/Amer. Ind.17%79% Source: California Academic Partnership Program

30. Percent of 12 th Grade Graduates in California Public Schools Completing All Courses Required for U.C. and/or C.S.U. Entrance Source: California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Unit

31. Tidal Wave II

32. California’s College-Age Population is Growing Rapidly The 18-19 age group is expected to increase 3.48% each year, or 2½ times as fast as the general population (1.37%) The 20-24 age group is expected to increase 2.62% each year, or about twice as fast as the general population.

33. California Public High School Graduates Completing All Courses Required for UC and/or CSU Entrance Source: California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Unit

34. Tidal Wave II: CSU Enrollment Projections 37% increase by 2010 Source: California State University,,Analytic Studies Unit 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

36. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH CSULB Freshman Application Demand and Enrollment CSULB

37. CSU Board of Trustees Policy CSU Commitment to All Eligible Students Admissions Guarantee to a Local CSU Commitment to Diversity California’s Budget and the Master Plan for Higher Education CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH CSULB Summary of Key Enrollment Management Issues CSULB

38. Affirming the importance of access and the traditional role of the CSU Access must lead to success: Building an environment for student success CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH Implications for the California State University

39. Orientation and Transition Dr. Dawn Person Professor, College of Education California State University, Long Beach

40. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH Purpose To retain students To engage students To inform students To make meaningful connections To introduce academic programs To develop meaningful friendships and relationships To encourage social and academic integration into the college community

41. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH CHALLENGES FOR ORIENTATION PROGRAMS Increased diversity of students Receptivity of campus community Degree campus culture embraces diversity Institutional support for student transitions into, through, and out of college Similarities and differences among people are honored

42. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH Program Issues Institutional commitment Institutional climate Models based on student development theory On-going assessment and evaluation

43. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH CONTRIBUTIVE FACTORS TOWARD RETENTION Entry Student’s perception of the institution Faculty/student interaction Institutional climate Educational and occupational aspirations Student characteristics and behaviors Campus involvement

44. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH CONTRIBUTIVE FACTORS TOWARD RETENTION (CONTINUED) Peer interaction Student culture Academic culture Support (internal and external) Social/cultural support Financial support

45. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH Retention Successes High levels of satisfaction with program services Summer programs Study groups Career development/seminars Faculty role models Effective collaboration between academic and student affairs

46. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH Five Salient Results SAT scores were never among the significant correlates Positive college adjustment variables = most frequent correlates of better academic success, but college comfort variables = largest component Money and family disadvantage were as potent predictors of higher GPA as background variables GPA was associated with working and spending time actively engaged in the environment Negative adjustment variables were accounted for by dissatisfaction with program services

47. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH Response to Challenges for Orientation Programs Separate Programs Extended Programs Schedule Revisions Break-away Sessions Self-sharing Immediate reassurance (Jacobs & Bowman, 2003) (Hatch, 2003)

48. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH Theoretical Foundations for Consideration Van Gennep (1961) Durkheim (1951) Astin(1984) Banning (1989) and Lewin (1936) Bean and Eaton (2001) Chickering and Reisser (1993) Fleming (1984) Rendon (1994) Tinto (1993)

49. CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, LONG BEACH The Question to Ponder Beyond race, class, gender, age, sexuality and religion, what are other differences found in student populations? Given what we know and understand about serving diverse students, what is the role of orientation in providing responsive programs? How do we build responsive programs that address “within group” differences?