1. Global Tsunami Catalog: a comparative study of tsunami occurrence in the main tsunamigenic regions in the World Ocean V.Gusiakov Tsunami Laboratory Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics Siberian Division Russian Academy of Sciences Email: gvk@sscc.ru

2. Expert Tsunami Database for the Pacific INTERGORVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PACIFIC REGION SIBERIAN DIVISION RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF COMPUTATIONAL MATHEMATICS AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS Historical Tsunami Database (HTDB) Project Historical Tsunami Database for the Atlantic INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PACIFIC REGION NOVOSIBIRSK TSUNAMI LABORATORY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER UNIVERSITY OF PUERTO RICO Historical Tsunami DataBase for the Mediterranean INTERGORVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PACIFIC REGION SIBERIAN DIVISION RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF COMPUTATIONAL MATHEMATICS AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS Global Tsunami Database for the World Ocean INTERGORVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PACIFIC REGION SIBERIAN DIVISION RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF COMPUTATIONAL MATHEMATICS AND MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS

3. Historical tsunami sources in the World ocean (2180 events for the period from 1628BC to 2005)

4. Distribution of the global tsunamigenic events over validity index 33% 18% 27% 15% 7% 4 (definite event) 3 (probable event) 2 (doubtful event) 1 (very doubtful event) 0 (false entry) 72% 10% 5% 2% 11% Tectonic Landslide Volcanic Meteorological Unknown Distribution of the tsunamigenic events over the type of source Cause of Tsunami

5. Distribution of the events over the main tsunamigenic regions 59% 25% 12% 4% Pacific Ocean Mediterranean Sea (including the Black Sea) Atlantic Ocean (including the Northern and the Baltic Seas) Indian Ocean 77% 10% 9% 4% Distribution of the events over the main tsunamigenic regions Whole historical period for XX century

6. Histogram of the global tsunami occurrence within 100-year intervals 25 29 40 78 50 122 210 600 926 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 BC0-500 AD 501-100 AD 1001- 1500 AD XVIXVIIXVIIIXIXXX N

7. Distribution of the Pacific tsunamigenic events over time for the last 500 years XIXXX

8. Typical distribution of tsunami run-up heights along the coast calculated for seismic source equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 submarine earthquake for a model bottom relief typical for Island arc regions Hav Hmax I = ½ + log 2 Hav m = log 2 Hmax

9. Distribution of the Pacific tsunamigenic events over time for the last 500 years XIXXX

10. A comparative length and completeness of regional tsunami catalogs in the Pacific ?

11. Number of tsunamigenic events depending on the number of resulted fatalities N FAT

12. Most deadly historical tsunamis 1883 Krakatau, Indonesia 36417volcanic 1707 Nankaido, Japan30000*tectonic 1498 Enshunada, Japan26000*tectonic 1896 Sanriku, Japan 27122tectonic 1771 Ishigaku, Japan13486tectonic Some most recent deadly tsunamis 1976 Mindanao, Philippines4000tectonic 1998 Aitape, PNG 3000tectonic 1992 Flores Is., Indonesia2200tectonic 1993 Okushiri, Japan 211tectonic 1992 Nicaragua 170tectonic 2004 Northern Sumatra > 286372tectonic

13. Number of tsunamigenic events depending on their maximum run-up heights N 494 200 116 63 38 24 11 3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 ≤ 1m ≤ 5m ≤ 10m ≤ 15m ≤ 20m ≤ 30m ≤ 50m ≤ 100m Hmax

14. Tsunami occurrence in XX century Tsunamis with heights more than 5 м at distance more than 5000 км (so called trans-oceanic tsunamis) were observed only in 5 cases (all in the Pacific) World Pacific All tsunamis 911 704 (events per year) 9.1 7.0 Tsunamis with Hmax > 1 м252 213 (events per year) 2.5 2.1 Tsunamis with Hmax > 5 м 96 82 (events per year) 1.0 0.8 1946 Aleutians 1952 Kamchatka 1957 Aleutians 1960 Chile 1964 Alaska

15. 5678910 Ms -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 3 4 5 I 5678910 Mw -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 3 4 5 I Dependence of tsunami intensity I on magnitudes M S and M w for the tsunamigenic earthquakes occurred in the Pacific in 1900-1999 I = 3.55 Mw –27.1

16. I(Mw) diagram for “red”, “green” and “blue” tsunamigenic earthquakes occurred in the Pacific in 1900-1998 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 3 4 5 I 5678910 Mw I = 3.55 Mw –27.1

17. Tectonic Landslide Volcanic Meteorological Unknown 75% 8% 5% 2% 10% Cause of Tsunami 30% 53%

18. 0 20 40 60 80 100 % no tsunami. 2337624100 I<-0.5 471062 -0.5<=I<=1.5 14753 I>1.5 00543 6.0-6.46.5-6.97.5-7.98.0-9.5 7.0-7.4 Fraction of tsunamigenic events occurred in the Pacific in 1990-2000 in the different magnitude intervals

19. Seismicity Tsunamis

20. Map of degree of tsunami activity for the Pacific, divided into three categories: low (blue), medium (green) and high (red)

21. Map of degree of tsunami activity for the Atlantic

22. Map of degree of tsunami activity for the Mediterranean

23. Map of degree of tsunami activity for the Indian Ocean

24. Conclusions 2. In most of tsunamis, the major damage is confined to the nearby coast, but in some cases, waves may cross the entire ocean and devastate distant shorelines. Locally highly destructive tsunamis are generated after earthquake-triggered subaerial or submarine landslides. 1. Both distantly and locally generated tsunamis are a typical example of “low probability – high consequence” hazard. Having, as a rule, a long recurrence interval (from 10-20 to 100-150 years) for a particular coastal location, they produce an extremely adverse impact on the coastal communities resulting in a heavy property damage, a high rate of fatalities, disruption of commerce and social life.

25. 3. As compared to tectonically-induced tsunamis, volcanic tsunamis generated by explosive eruptions or volcanic cone failure can be extremely destructive locally, but can hardly transport their energy far away the area of origin. 4. Statistical nature of tsunami generation process results in absence of direct relation between earthquake magnitude and intensity of tsunami. Selection of magnitude threshold is critical for the “missed event/false alarm” ratio. Direct ocean bottom or satellite measurement of tsunami in the open sea can improve warning statistics.