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The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany.

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Presentation on theme: "The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England Thomas A. Wasula NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

2 CSTAR Warm Season Project Kenneth LaPenta NOAA/NWS WFO at Albany Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel Keyser Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNY

3 Background Climatology on Closed/Cutoff Lows Several patterns or categories of Closed Lows were developed from a subjective analysis done from May 1- September 30, 1980-2000 based on one closed isoheight for at least 24 hours. Several patterns or categories of Closed Lows were developed from a subjective analysis done from May 1- September 30, 1980-2000 based on one closed isoheight for at least 24 hours. The domain was from 36º-48ºN and 65º-88ºW, which is primarily east of the Mississippi River, excluding the Southeast, and south of Hudson Bay. The domain was from 36º-48ºN and 65º-88ºW, which is primarily east of the Mississippi River, excluding the Southeast, and south of Hudson Bay. The predominant patterns/categories of closed lows were the re-curving Great Lakes and Northwest. The predominant patterns/categories of closed lows were the re-curving Great Lakes and Northwest.

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8 June 16, 2002 Father’s Day A Closed Low approaching from the Eastern Great Lakes Region A Closed Low approaching from the Eastern Great Lakes Region A concentrated severe weather outbreak produced hail, straight line winds and tornadoes. A concentrated severe weather outbreak produced hail, straight line winds and tornadoes. Strong mid-level jet was moving through Eastern NY and New England coupled with a 500 hPa cold pool aloft (steep mid-level lapse rates), surface trough and moderate to high CAPE values. Strong mid-level jet was moving through Eastern NY and New England coupled with a 500 hPa cold pool aloft (steep mid-level lapse rates), surface trough and moderate to high CAPE values.

9 FO Tornado near Amsterdam in Montgomery County

10 F1 Tornado in southeast Dutchess County

11 June 16, 2002 Severe Weather

12 Eastern New York and Southern New England Severe Weather on June 16, 2002 – Fathers Day NY-MA-CT 19 Hail reports 8 Wind reports 4 Tornado reports Source: Storm Data

13 RAOB 500 hPa Heights and Temps 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Father’s Day

14 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 700 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints http://www.spc.noaa.gov

15 16 June 2002/ 1200 UTC 850 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints http://www.spc.noaa.gov

16 1200 UTC 16 June 2002 Surface Map

17 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000- 500 (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x -5 s -1 ) shaded

18 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded and theta- e (K) dashed

19 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10 -10 s -1 ) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines 250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded

20 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10 -5 °C/sec) MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

21 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent 850 hPa Winds (kts), 850- 500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

22 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis 250 hPa Divergence (x10 -5 s -1 ) solid contours and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded every 10 m s -1

23 Modified ALY 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Sounding

24 Convective Parameters CAPE = 1581 J/kg (Range for region 500-2000 J/kg) CAPE = 1581 J/kg (Range for region 500-2000 J/kg) Lifted Index = -5 Lifted Index = -5 Total Totals = 47 Total Totals = 47 Freezing Level = 8.4 kft Freezing Level = 8.4 kft Wet Bulb Zero = 6.8 kft Wet Bulb Zero = 6.8 kft 700 – 500 hPa lapse rate = 6.5 °C/km 700 – 500 hPa lapse rate = 6.5 °C/km Energy Helicity Index = 0.6 Energy Helicity Index = 0.6 Storm Relative Helicity = -57 (m/s) 2 (0-3 km) Storm Relative Helicity = -57 (m/s) 2 (0-3 km) Precipitable Water = 0.81” Precipitable Water = 0.81”

25 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecasts for 1800 UTC

26 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000- 500 (hPa) thickness dashed 500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x -5 s -1 ) shaded

27 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr forecast for 1800 UTC 250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded 850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded and theta- e (K) dashed

28 ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC 850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10 -5 °C/sec) MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

29 700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent 850 hPa Winds (kts), 850- 500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded ***ETA forecasting upward vertical motion coupled with forecasted 850-500 hPa lapse rates of 6-7°C/km ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC

30 250 hPa Divergence (x10 -5 s -1 ) solid contours and Isotachs (m s -1 ) shaded every 10 m s -1 ***ETA forecasts a strengthening of the upper level jet streak, and southern NY on cyclonic exit region with a large divergence maxima just off the New England Coast

31 Visible Satellite Picture 16 June 2002/1615 UTC

32 1500 UTC Surface Map (MSLP solid and Temps dashed) L

33 KENX Radar Analysis of Severe Weather across NY and New England Overview of convective evolution Overview of convective evolution Analysis of the Florida/Amsterdam FO Tornado Analysis of the Florida/Amsterdam FO Tornado Brief Highlights of Hail and Wind Events Brief Highlights of Hail and Wind Events Briefly analyze Dutchess/Litchfield County Tornado from a supercell Briefly analyze Dutchess/Litchfield County Tornado from a supercell

34 1557 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity ALY

35 1650 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

36 KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity Loop 1702 UTC to 1856 UTC

37 1638 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1638 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

38 1644 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1644 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

39 1650 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1650 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

40 1656 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1656 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

41 1702 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity 1702 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM

42 Amsterdam/Florida FO Tornado Distance (nm) Time (UTC) Vrotational (kts) Shear (s -1 ) 0.5163821.20.024 0.5164416.00.020 0.5165021.00.022 0.5165616.00.019 1.0170221.00.011 ***Tornado first reported at 1650 UTC***

43 KENX 1656 UTC VAD Wind Profile

44 MAX VIL=44 kg/m 2 1.50” hail in Columbia County 1737 UTC KENX VIL Product VIL of Day was around 35 kg/m 2

45 1749 UTC KENX Composite Reflectivity

46 1749 UTC KENX Composite Reflectivity Cross-Section in Columbia County

47 1813 UTC KENX VIL and MESO MAX VIL = 38 kg/m 2 ALY 1813 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

48 1842 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM – Pawling Tornado in Dutchess Co.

49 1842 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

50 1848 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

51 1854 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

52 1900 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

53 Preliminary Results 500 hPa Closed low off the Eastern Great Lakes help initiate convective outbreak. 500 hPa Closed low off the Eastern Great Lakes help initiate convective outbreak. Surface trough coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (cold pool aloft), low wet-bulb zero values, high CAPE values (large instability) and dewpoints in the 50’s and lower 60’s fueled organized low topped multicelluar convection that coalesced into a line…with a supercell south of it. Surface trough coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (cold pool aloft), low wet-bulb zero values, high CAPE values (large instability) and dewpoints in the 50’s and lower 60’s fueled organized low topped multicelluar convection that coalesced into a line…with a supercell south of it. Locations hit by convection were situated in the cyclonic exit region/left front quad of the 250 hPa upper level jet. Locations hit by convection were situated in the cyclonic exit region/left front quad of the 250 hPa upper level jet. Tornadic development was aided by large instability and shallow low-level veering (Sfc to 850 hPa). Predominant flow aloft (mid and upper-levels) was Southwesterly. Tornadic development was aided by large instability and shallow low-level veering (Sfc to 850 hPa). Predominant flow aloft (mid and upper-levels) was Southwesterly.

54 Future Work To further develop the mesoscale analysis with the use of profiler data. To further develop the mesoscale analysis with the use of profiler data. To examine KOKX radar data for Pawling tornado. To examine KOKX radar data for Pawling tornado. To examine the local terrain effects on the tornadic development. To examine the local terrain effects on the tornadic development. Compare this closed low case with others done in the CSTAR project(s). Compare this closed low case with others done in the CSTAR project(s).

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