1. Climate change Refers to any significant change in measures of climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer) Climate change may result from: –natural factors: ex. Change in sun's intensity –natural processes within the climate system: ex. changes in ocean circulation –human activities that change atmosphere's composition: ex: burning fossil fuels land surface: ex: deforestation, urbanization, desertification, etc.

2. Scientific consensus on climate change No real debate - scientific consensus –Climate changing rapidly RATE –Anthropogenic sources CAUSE IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

5. In U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions –¾ energy-related activities, CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels ½ power plants 1/3 transportation –Industry (cement, steel, aluminum), ag, forestry, waste mgmt

6. Affects of climate change vary over space

7. And time….

8. So what are the impacts on wildlife? That depends on... Where they are –Physical boundaries: development, mountains, coast –Impacts: coasts, mountains, arctic, rainforests, deserts Their life history characteristics –Migrants, coevolution, range, dispersal –Degree of specialization Genetic variability

9. So what are the impacts on wildlife? Range and distribution changes Demographics Phenology Community composition and interactions

10. It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. C. Darwin

11. From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597 Modeling climate change scenarios to predict future trends/patterns

12. From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597 Modeling climate change scenarios to predict future trends/patterns: a suite of future models

13. From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597 Modeling range expansion/contraction

14. From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597 Modeling range expansion/contraction

15. From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597 Can take individual species projected range maps and create maps of overall changes in species lost.

16. From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597 Can take individual species projected range maps and create maps of overall changes in species gained.

17. From Lawler et al (2009), Ecology 90(3):588-597 Can take individual species projected range maps and create maps of overall changes in community changes.