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Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

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Presentation on theme: "Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet."— Presentation transcript:

1 Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2007 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 3, 2006, Kelso, WA

2 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

3 Introduction UW Forecast System www.hydro.washington.edu/ forecast/westwide/ Developing “focus regions” -- Klamath R. basin -- Yakima R. basin -- Feather R. basin -- WA State 1/16

4 Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System Soil Moisture Initial Condition Snowpack Initial Condition

5 Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System ESP ENSO/PDO ENSO CPC Official Outlooks NCEP CFS CAS OCN SMLR CCA CA NSIPP/GMAO dynamical model VIC Hydrolog y Model NOAA NASA UW Multiple Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources

6 Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting ICs Spin-upForecast obs recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast hydrologic state

7 targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes monthly hydrographs spatial forecast maps

8 Flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data. Clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions Applications: streamflow Introduction

9 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

10 Average annual water cycle The PNW hydrologic cycle PNW Where we are now on average  soil moisture near annual low  runoff near low  nearly all water year precipitation yet to come  snow season not really underway  evaporation not a factor

11 The PNW hydrologic cycle  water balance Note that there is variability in soil moisture now… current

12 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Dalles: 100 / 88 ESPESP - El Nino

13 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Priest Rapids: 101 / 89 ESPESP - El Nino

14 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Snake: 96 / 83 ESPESP - El Nino

15 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Snake: 96 / 83 El Nino flow deficits come in April through July

16 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Upper Snake: 95 / 83 ESPESP - El Nino

17 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Waneta: 99 / 84 ESPESP - El Nino

18 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Arrow: 101 / 92 ESPESP - El Nino

19 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Mica Dam: 101 / 93 ESPESP - El Nino

20 Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Arrow: 101 / 92 El Nino flow deficits come in June and July

21 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

22 Recap WY2006, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

23 Recap WY2006, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions

24 Recap WY2006, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions

25 Recap WY2006, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions

26 Recap WY2006, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions

27 Recap WY2006, May. 1 hydrologic conditions

28 Recap WY2006, Jul. 1 hydrologic conditions

29 Oct. 1 Soil Moisture Comparison THIS YEAR LAST YEARTHIS YEAR

30 Other views of changing hydrologic conditions www.hydro.washington.edu/ forecast/monitor/ Soil moisture change in last month

31 Soil Moisture for last 2 weeks The daily update of surface conditions enables animationed views of recent changes

32 Recap WY2006, Related Snow Plots Observed SWEChange in last month

33 Winter 2005-06: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

34 Winter 2005-06: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

35 Winter 2005-06: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

36 Understanding Uncertainty All those whose duty it is to issue regular daily forecasts know that there are times when they feel very confident and other times when they are doubtful as to the coming weather. It seems to me that the condition of confidence or otherwise forms a very important part of the prediction, and ought to find expression. -W.E. Cooke (1906)

37 Calibrating Model Forecast Uncertainty J F M A M Models are overconfident Statistical calibration of outputs can add needed uncertainty to forecasts

38 Understanding Uncertainty

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