1. Understanding Complex Dynamical Systems John UsherRossitsa Yalamova Org Theory Finance

2. Foundations of “New” Social Science Old and new assumptions: agents and equilibria Deliberate vs. emergent strategy Control vs. self- organization Fish / birds / termites (Schools, flocks, bldgs) GM: bidding paint robots Internet / Economy

3. Four Types of Complexity 1) Static complexity 2) Dynamic complexity 3) Evolving complexity 4) Self-organizing complexity

4. Type I: Static Complexity System structure does not change with time Count the number of transistors on a computer chip or number of cells in a life form Quantity => Pattern Fractal complication

5. Type II: Dynamic Complexity Adds fourth dimension of time Recognize temporal patterns (seasons) but lose spatial patterns (leaves) Not just predictable attributes but variable and extreme events

6. Type III: Evolving Complexity Open-ended, non- cyclic change Variation Selection Retention models Learning, art, galaxies as well as species Identifying patterns among systems not outcomes

7. Type IV: Self-Organizing Complexity System co-evolves with its environment Classification of system out of context is not a valid description Ecology or language Work on environment constraints & let system evolve a solution instead of trying to impose one

8. Autopoesis Egocentric organizations Survival must always be with, not against, the environment Example: depletion of fish stocks

9. Edge-of-Chaos Phase transitions Basins of attraction Edge-of-chaos situations can flip patterns Small changes = BIG effects

10. Mutual Causality Positive and Negative Feedback Loops Deviation amplifying and stabilizing Understand the system, not just linear cause and effect Intervention points

12. Management and Emergent Change Powerless power A loss of control or a loss of perceived control? Understanding limits of control & finding points of intervention Shaping patterns instead of planning

13. Guidance for the Pattern Shaper Sources: Tom Peters, Jim March and Robert Burgelman The world is a stream of problems that can be activated, bound in new ways, or by- passed Timing is important Realizing what levers you control and don’t control is important knowledge Modeling a change gains more ground than asking for it Skinner was right about reinforcement Nudge the system and ask questions to assess their effect And remember…

14. Lawlessness can be a good thing “I say unto you: one must still have chaos in oneself to be able to give birth to a dancing star.” (Nietzsche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra)

15. Now it gets really scary… WAIT