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Verification of DWD Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger.

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Presentation on theme: "Verification of DWD Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger."— Presentation transcript:

1 Verification of LM @ DWD Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger

2 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification activities Operational verification –surface weather elements (SYNOP) –precipitation (high density network) –verification of vertical profiles using TEMPs and AMDARs

3 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification activities Preoperational verification & research –verification of LME –verification of precipitation forecasts using the pattern recognition method by Ebert –suggestion about common verification procedures in the future

4 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC

5 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC

6 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC

7 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC

8 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 2 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC

9 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 10 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC

10 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of scores for QPF over Germany

11 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H < 800 m

12 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H > 800 m

13 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts DJF 2004/05 00 UTC H < 800 m

14 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts MAM 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m

15 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m

16 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJ 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m

17 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m

18 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of GME

19 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2002

20 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2003

21 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2004

22 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005

23 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 1

24 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 2

25 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 3

26 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 4

27 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Geopotential 17.12.2003 GME PseudoTemps 17.12.2003 GME PseudoTemps 27.09.2003 New GME 27.09.2003 New GME

28 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Wind Velocity 17.12.2003 GME PseudoTemps 17.12.2003 GME PseudoTemps 27.09.2003 New GME 27.09.2003 New GME

29 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Temperature 17.12.2003 GME PseudoTemps 17.12.2003 GME PseudoTemps 27.09.2003 New GME 27.09.2003 New GME

30 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Relative Humidity 16.09.2003 Prognostic Cloud Ice 16.09.2003 Prognostic Cloud Ice

31 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, RMSE,...

32 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, BIAS,...

33 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE,...

34 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE,... 2.39 2.56 2.34 2.53

35 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME experiment, BIAS,...

36 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005

37

38 Using ODB as a tool within verification Observational Data Base: data base filled with observations (used during assimilation cycle) and differences between observations and forecasts requires special software to install and to run enables introduction of sql-statements to extract observations and differences FC-OBS under any conditions (i.e. get surface temperature values [or errors] over the Alps in cases if inversion occures in Payerne between 1000 and 850 hPa)

39 COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005 That‘s all, thank you for your attention!


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