1. Research on Immigration and Integration in the Metropolis www.riim.metropolis.net

2. Immigration, Emigration and Calgary Don J DeVoretz Co-director RIIM Feb. 8, 2001

3. Benefits and Costs of Immigration Economic Affects of Immigration –Treasury Drain or Gain –Job Market Wage Compression or Expansion Job Displacement or Creation –Goods Market Price Effects - housing inflation Quantity Effects

4. Calgary Immigrant Household 1996 Tax is concave in age Use is convex in age Result is –Calgary Immigrant lifetime contribution $ 55,370 –Canadian Immigrant lifetime contribution $94,000

5. Expenditure Impact

6. Costs & Benefits of Emigration Public Costs –Treasury costs of post-secondary leavers –Externalities: loss of job creation and exports –Loss of future income and taxes Private Costs –Causes retention in 80 - 95 % of Cases –Loss of social safety net: age specific –Loss of social contact –Loss of social and physical amenities

7. Risk of Movement to USA

8. Private Benefits of Emigration 40% rate of return Canada-US Ease of return migration Career Advancement

9. Rate of Return and Emigration

10. Churning Costs of Immigration Canada is engaged in brain exchange Canada loses 10,000 highly skilled to USA Canada imports 18,000 highly skilled ROW Does this Net 8,000 solve the problem ? What if 18,000 does not match 10,000 What is cost of this churning ? –$12 billion circa 1989-96

11. Churning Costs

12. Conclusions: Brain Exchange Minor loss due to educational subsidy Minor cost due to settlement costs Large costs due to productivity loss Calgary’s position is probably worse than ROC

13. Policy Options Reduce Churning Costs through: Internships Foreign graduate student conversion Bribe Canadians to come home WHY? – Cheaper: Canada 1968-72 program – Unethical to import without compensation