1. Testing Earthquake Forecasts David D. Jackson Yan Y. Kagan Yufang Rong

2. Types of test Prospective: all parameters and rules set Retrospective; adustments made to fit data better Pseudo-prospective Learning and test periods Qualitative adjustments may be made

3. What to test Number of events Magnitude distribution of those events Locations of those events

4. Smoothed seismicity forecast test

5. Concentration plot of the earthquake potential model and actual earthquakes

6. Number test and Likelihood test The forecast passed the tests at 95% confidence level.