1. The Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment (UNSTABLE) 2008: Operations Overview Neil M. Taylor 1, D. Sills 2, J. Hanesiak 3, J. A. Milbrandt 4, C. D. Smith 5, G. Strong 6, S. Skone 7, P. J. McCarthy 8, and J. C. Brimelow 3 1 Hydrometeorology and Arctic Lab, Environment Canada 2 Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, Environment Canada 3 Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS), University of Manitoba 4 Recherche en Prévision Numérique [RPN] (Numerical Weather Prediction Research Section), Environment Canada 5 Climate Research Division, Environment Canada 6 Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta (Adjunct) 7 Department of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary 8 Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre, Environment Canada CMOS Congress, Halifax, NS June 4 th 2009

2. UNSTABLE Rationale Canada’s Population Density (2006) > 32 27-32 22-26 Existing real-time surface observations over a region of the AB foothills Edmonton Calgary Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg > 40 deaths and $2.5 B in property damage since 1981

3. Rationale: Ecoclimate Regions and ET Mixed / Coniferous Forest Low ET Prairie Crops / Grassland High ET Transition Zone – Potential Gradient in Latent Heat Flux

4. Calgary Red Deer Experimental Design UNSTABLE Goals Improve understanding of ABL processes and CI Improve accuracy and lead time for warnings Assess utility of high-res NWP to resolve processes and provide guidance Revise conceptual models for CI and severe wx 3 Main Science Areas 1. ABL moisture and convergence boundaries 2. Surface processes (heat flux) 3. High resolution NWP model forecasts of CI and severe weather Secondary Domain Targeting Storm Evolution Primary Domain Targeting Storm Initiation 15km Spacing 25km Spacing

5. IOD Missions Observation MissionObjectivesScience Question CI 1 (ABL Water Vapour) To characterize the evolution of ABL water vapour within areas favourable for CI and the development of thunderstorms in the absence of well-defined mesoscale convergence boundaries. 1a, 1d, 1e CI 2 (Mesoscale Boundary) To sample the environment near and within mesoscale boundaries and associated circulations with the potential to trigger CI. 1b, 1d, 1e Dryline To resolve and characterize the 4-D dryline environment with and without associated CI and thunderstorm development. 1c, 1d, 1e Water Vapour Gradient 1 (Soil Moisture) To sample horizontal water vapour gradients associated with discontinuities in soil moisture from PAM-II model forecasts and observed areas of recent precipitation. 2a, 2c, 2d, 2e Water Vapour Gradient 2 (Vegetation) To sample horizontal water vapour gradients associated with contrasting areas of vegetation type, specifically forested vs. cropped areas. 2b, 2d, 2e

6. Special Instrumentation: Fixed / Mobile Surface Observations 1.5m 2m U of C Foothills Climate Array Stations EC AMMOS (Automated Mobile Meteorological Observation System) 2 sec. T, T d, P, Wind across gradients and fills in mesonet as necessary EC ATMOS (Automated Transportable Meteorological Observation System) 1 min. T, T d, P, Wind, pcpn 1 min. T, T d, pcpn CRD FOPEX Stations 1 min. T, T d, P, Wind, pcpn MM3 2 sec. T, T d, P

7. Special Instrumentation: Upper Air and Profiling Platforms U of C GPS IPWV Fixed (2) and Mobile (2) Radiosonde Systems U of C Profiling Radiometer (H 2 0) and Total Column Water Radiometer EC Tethersonde System

8. Special Instrumentation: University of Manitoba MARS Sodar AERI AMR weather station Mobile Radiosonde

9. Special Instrumentation: Aircraft WMI King Air w/ Microphysics and AIMMS-20 Instrument Package (T, P, RH, wind) Microphysics Probes Instrument Display

10. 2.5 km GRID 1-km GRID Daily 2.5-km and Nested 1.0-km LAM Runs in “Real-Time” Daily real-time runs Standard and experimental fields Images and data archived

11. UNSTABLE 2008 Operations Where possible utilized mobile observations to target storm initiation areas or related processes These observations integrated with fixed special instrumentation to augment the current operational observation network Intensive operations were conducted from 9-23 July –8 IOD missions were conducted + a day of partial operations –7 research flights –16 regular field participants + a few guest appearances to help with soundings, etc. and visits from media –182 soundings (2 hourly on IODs) + test and training flights –Over 10 000 km travelled by mobile teams (!) Dedicated forecast support provided by PASPC Daily real-time operational model runs of GEM LAM from RPN

12. Field Logistics Headquarters for field coordinator at Olds-Didsbury airport (WMI Operations) Communications –cell phone for field teams –real-time GPS position via aircards for mobile teams –sounding data transfer via Blackberries for both fixed and mobile soundings –Daily status messages emailed to all field teams + PASPC RSD Briefings –Evening briefing for day 2 outlook and preliminary operational decisions –0715 MDT morning briefing to finalize operational decisions, target area(s), and mission selection Real-time support from PASPC –Day 1 and day 2 forecasts –Hourly mesoanalysis and phone consultation –Blog

13. Daily Operations Schedule

14. Operations Calendar SundayMondayTuesdayWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturday 6 Arrival / set-up upper-air teams 7 Arrival FC, SFC mobile teams – installations, testing, etc. 8 Media circus, testing, flight meeting, first evening briefing 9 Operations Dryline TWN 10 Interviews, visit from SPC (Bright), some mobile obs 11 Site Inspections, etc 12 Operations WVG1 3 rd Mobile Team Arrives 13 Operations Dryline 14 Operations Dryline 15 Partial Ops Vulcan F1 and wind damage near Med. Hat 16 Damage survey near Medicine Hat Discovery Ch. 17 Operations CI1 1819 20 Operations WVG2 21 Operations CI2 22 Operations CI1 23 Data retrieval and wind up 24 Pack up and travel home 2526 July 2008

15. Current Status Analysis underway with early results presented today Short term focus: formalizing / publishing results from 2008 pilot project Medium term focus: preparations for full-scale project tentatively scheduled for summer 2011 –Flux measurements –Additional instrumented aircraft –More mesonet stations / soundings –Longer observation period –Changes to domain, station placement (?) Long Term: publications and knowledge transfer to MSC forecast operations

16. In Conclusion… Thank You!