1. Outlook for Corn & Other Feedgrains 2003-04 By Dr. Robert Wisner Iowa State University World Production/use data sources: USDA

2. U.S. & World Crop Forecasts August 12, 2003 U.S. Corn Crop 7 mil. m. t. below private forecasts U.S. corn 27 mil. t. above 2002 U.S. Soybean Crop 3.8 mil. t. below private forecast World Wheat & Feed grain Stocks tighten Ukraine wheat crop –76% from 2002, feed gr. – 10% Canada wheat –12% from July forecast EU wheat –5% from July forecast EU feed grain –7% from July forecast E. Europe wheat –11% from July forecast, F. gr. –5%

3. Fig. 1

10. 3rd wk. Of July

15. Countries requiring GMO labeling 06/03 U.K. Belgium France Netherlands Germany Luxembourg Switzerland Denmark Ireland Paraguay Slovenia Sri Lanka Greece Portugal Spain Sweden Finland Austria Poland* Australia New Zealand China Thailand Taiwan Malaysia Italy S. Korea Japan Czech Rep. Hungary Saudi Arabia Japan Mexico Russia Ethiopia South Africa * Not enforced, but will be with EU entry Hungary

20. 8/12/03 Fig. 11

23. Mil. Bu. Change in 2002 Corn Production vs. 2001 11/12/02 +240 +255 -76 -90 -160 -238 -212 -101 -38 +30 -49 +45 +34 +32 +6 +17 +16 +17 +1 -3 -24 -29 -16 -17 -16 -49 -16 U.S. -504 814 below 2001-02 utilization -43 Basis Implications?

24. N.C. Iowa Basis, Mid-Oct. Under Near-by futures Corn 1996 -.24 1997 -.37 1998 -.43 1999 -.51 2000 -.38 2001 -.38 2002 -.29 2003 -.40 to-.45?

25. Futures 6/24/03 Corn July$2.39 Sept. 2.35 Dec. 2.35 March 04 2.41 May 2.47 July 2.47 Sept. 04 2.40 Soybeans July$6.30 Aug. 6.29 Sept. 6.00 Nov. 5.66 Jan. 04 5.68 March 5.70 May 5.69 Watch Carry for Storage Hedge Opportunities

28. Longer Run Trends In early stages of rapid increase in grain farm size Rapid increase in use of semi-trucks Shuttle trains Designer crops ahead? Marketing challenges More consolidation of elevators More ethanol plants: basis impact & how to market DDGS New grain contracts for farmers

30. http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/wisner/

32. Geographical Corn Price Differences Early June 2003 2.42 2.43 2.47 2.62 3.05 3.00 Wheat 2.15 3.01 2.65 2.28 3.30 3.16 3.02 2.17 2.37 2.70 2.48 2.40

33. Grain Outlook, 2003-04 Low U.S. & world reserve feed grain stocks Tightening world wheat stocks New global grain competitors crop outlook With U.S. trend yield or higher in 2003 –Moderate drop in cash corn price, to moderately under loan rates Moderate potential price volatility through September if widespread adverse weather should develop

35. Have currencies recovered? % Chg. June 24,03 vs. Jan. 1996 SS. Korea -52 SHong Kong -0.8 SJapan -12 SMalaysia -49 SIndonesia -256 SIndia -29 SArgentina -181 S China +0.1 S Russia -551 S Philippines -104 S Taiwan -26 S Thailand -65 S Brazil -185 S Mexico -41 EU Euro -8