1. 2008 and Beyond: A new electoral landscape? Todd Donovan Western Washington University

2. Themes What might be unprecedented about the 2008 election? Any change in the party system on horizon?

3. Stability and Change in US Election Most elections replicate past results Some are “realignments” 1932, 1968, 1980.... New landscape, new coalitions

4. Recent Electoral Coalitions New Deal New Deal 1932 - 1968 Democrats strongest in South; GOP in NE Regan Revolution Regan Revolution1980 - 2000 1968 as precursor Clinton coalition as interlude Stalemate Stalemate2000 - 2008

5. New Deal Coalition 1930s - 1968 Democrats dominate Congress & White House GOP success with White House 1952 Dems enduring majority party GOP = West, New England, OH/IN Dems = South, PA, NY, MA, unions, blue collar, Catholics Issue: New Deal economics Issue: New Deal economics

6. New Deal Coalition 1944 FDR 432 (53.4) Dewey 99 (45.9) GOP competitive in CA, NY, IL, MI, CT, PA…

7. Post New Deal Coalition 1968 Humphrey 191 (42.7) Nixon 301 (43.4) Wallace 46 (13%) Democratic Party in South splitting Issue: Race

8. Post New Deal Coalition 1976 Carter 297 (55%) Ford 240 (45%) Last time Dems carry the South

9. Post New Deal Coalition After 1968 New issue divide drives people to different parties No majority party: Divided government Civil rights drives white southerners away from New Deal coalition Takes decades for GOP to get fully established in South

10. Reagan Revolution 1980 - 2000 Realignment of South to GOP deepens Dems down to 30% of white southern vote Rocky Mountain West more solidly GOP What was changing? Decline of class-based voting (not income) rise of ‘values’ issues & values voters in GOP coalition Emerging gender split in voting

11. Reagan Revolution 1980 1980 RR 50.7% End of Democratic dominance in South GOP gains in US House GOP controls US Senate

12. Reagan Revolution 1988 1988 Bush 426 (53%) Dukakis 111 (46) Democrats maintain control of US House; regain Senate

13. Clinton Coalition (interlude) 1992 - 2000 1992 - 2000 Clinton wins some South (not down ballot) End of Democratic Majorities in Congress Higher gender gap, higher urban / rural gap; economic concerns high Democrats party of the two coasts Polarization of parties?

14. Clinton Coalition = GOP gains 1992 2 incumbent Dem Senators lose (GA, NC) 2 incumbent GOP Senators lost (CA, WI) Net loss of 9 Dem House seats (AR, GA, AL, FL, SC) 1994 Dems lose 54 US House Seats, lose majority Southerners, Whites, men largest vote shift to GOP

15. Clinton Coalition 1992 1992 Clinton 370 (43%) Bush 168 (37%) LA, AR, TN, KY, FL all Dem lose Dems lose seats in US House, lose 55 seats in ‘94

16. Clinton Coalition 1996 1996 Clinton 379 (49%) Dole 159 (41%) LA, AR, MO, TN, KY, FL all Dem.

17. 2000 - 2008: Deadlock Near even division 2000 - 2008 2000 presidential election a tie Senate a tie, US House 12 seats Old South now solid GOP (not so much with AR, LA, FL) Social issues, security trumped economics in 2000, 2004

18. 2000 - 2008: Deadlock Rise of large generational split 2000 & 2004 65% of those under 30 voted Democrat If they vote…. Growth of Latino vote (8% in 2004) trending Democrat (out of FL) 2006 Midterm vote referendum on Bush

19. The Old (?) Map 2000 Stalemate 2000 Stalemate Bush 271 (48%) Gore 266 (48.4) NH, OH GOP NM, IA Dem

20. The Old (?) Map 2004 Stalemate 2004 Stalemate Bush 286 (53%) Kerry 251 (47%) NH Dem NM, OH, IA GOP

21. A Realignment in 2008? 1860 1896 1932 1968 1980 1994 ?? “Durable change in party coalitions” New issues that break old coalitions New parties High interest, high turnout

22. What Changed in 2008? GOP Nomination of “Outsider” No clear consensus about candidate High turnout Not leading in fundraising Defending 12 of 13 most vulnerable Senators

23. What Changed in 2008? Democrats Nomination of “Outsider” No clear consensus Huge generation split Huge racial split Modest gender split High turnout Nearly as high as 1972 Lead in fundraising

24. McCain vs Obama Dynamic Different than McCain vs. Clinton Obama and the west a new coalition (CO, NV, AZ, WI, MN, OR, WA) Clinton and the Midwest the old coalition (OH, PA) Both appealed to independent voters

25. Where was the Change? New Map: West more “Blue” IN +11 Obama ND + 9 Obama MT +9 Obama NE +9 Obama (+1 EC vote) DE +9 Obama UT +8 Obama VT +8 Obama MA +8 Obama VA +7 Obama (+13 EC votes)

26. Where was the Change? New Map: West more “Blue” NV +7 Obama (+5 EC votes) NM +7 Obama (+ 5 EC votes) CT +7 Obama WI +7 Obama CA +7 Obama CO +7 Obama (+ 9 EC votes) SD +6 Obama MI +6 Obama NC +6 Obama (+ 15 EC votes)

27. Where was the Change? New Map… MD + 6 Obama GA +6 Obama KS +5 Obama Same old thing WA + 5 Obama ME + 4 Obama IA, FL, NH, NJ, NY, PA + 4 Obama (+ 34 EC votes) OH + 2 Obama (+20 EC votes)

28. No change…. Many w/ GOP gains over 2004 OK AR AL LA TN KY WV

29. Who is changing? Age Young voters (% Dem) 2000 2004 2008 48% 54% 66% (+18 vs. Gore) Over 65 voters 2000 2004 2008 50% 48% 45% (-5 vs Gore)

30. Who is changing? Partisans Independents (% Dem) 2000 2004 2008 45% 49% 52% (+7 vs. Gore)

31. Who is changing? Race/Ethnicity African Americans (% Dem) 2000 2004 2008 90% 88% 95% Latinos (% Dem) 2000 2004 2008 62% 53% 67%

32. Who is changing? Race/Ethnicity White women (% Dem) 2000 2004 2008 48% 44% 46% (-2 vs. Gore) White men (% Dem) 2000 2004 2008 36% 37%41% (+5 vs Gore)

33. What is Changing? Issue effects Economy top concern again Iraq fading…. Any realigning issue? slavery, industrialization, Great Depression, Civil Rights...

34. Shades of Realignment First Dem w/ popular majority since Carter Big Dem gains in US Senate (+7?) OR, NM, CO, VA, NC, NH (AK, MN, GA in play) LBJ Last Dem to carry seats (+2 in 1964) RR came in w/ +12 Senate seats in 1980 Dem gains in US House 1930s Last time a party gained +20 in 2x elections

35. Shades of Realignment 2008 a referendum on Bush, the economy Any Democrat would have won… What realigning issue? Can Democrats build an enduring majority? New coalition based on younger voters, people of color, Independents, westerners…..