1. Urbanized MM5 simulations for a Houston ozone episode and for the NYC DHS MSG tracer study R. Bornstein*, R. Balmori E. Weinroth, H. Taha San Jose State University San Jose, CA *e-mail: pblmodel@hotmail.com pblmodel@hotmail.com Presented at GMU Modeling Conference July 2007

2. Acknowledgements Data Data S. Burian, J. Ching S. Burian, J. Ching TCEQ, USFS TCEQ, USFS D. Byun D. Byun Urbanization scheme of Urbanization scheme of A. Martilli A. Martilli S. Dupont S. Dupont Funds: Funds: Past: NSF, USAID, DHS Past: NSF, USAID, DHS Pending: DTRA Pending: DTRA

3. OUTLINE Introduction Introduction Getting Mesomet models to work well Getting Mesomet models to work well Current uMM5 Current uMM5 Houston ozone Houston ozone NYC tracer study NYC tracer study Future: uWRF Future: uWRF Conclusion Conclusion

4. Recent Meso-met Model Urbanization Need to urbanize momentum, thermo, & TKE Need to urbanize momentum, thermo, & TKE surface & SfcBL diagnostic-Eqs. surface & SfcBL diagnostic-Eqs. PBL prognostic-Eqs. PBL prognostic-Eqs. Start: canopy model (Yamada 1982) Start: veg-canopy model (Yamada 1982) Veg-param replaced with GIS/RS urban-param/data Veg-param replaced with GIS/RS urban-param/data Brown and Williams (1998) Brown and Williams (1998) Masson (2000) Masson (2000) Martilli et al. (2001) in TVM/URBMET Martilli et al. (2001) in TVM/URBMET Dupont, Ching, et al. (2003) in EPA/MM5 Dupont, Ching, et al. (2003) in EPA/MM5 Taha et al. (2005), Balmori et al. (2006b) in uMM5: Taha et al. (2005), Balmori et al. (2006b) in uMM5: detailed input urban-parameters as f(x,y) Next: 2 slides

5. From EPA uMM5: Mason + Martilli (by Dupont) Within Gayno-Seaman PBL/TKE scheme

6.  Advanced urbanization scheme from Masson (2000) ______ _________ 3 new terms in each prog equation

7. New GIS/RS inputs for uMM5 as f (x, y, z)  land use (38 categories)  roughness elements  anthropogenic heat as f (t)  vegetation and building heights  paved-surface fractions  drag-force coefficients for buildings & vegetation  building H to W, wall-plan, & impervious-area ratios  building frontal, plan, & rooftop area densities  wall and roof: ε, cρ, α, etc.  vegetation: canopies, root zones, stomatal resistances

8. uMM5 for Houston Goal: Accurate urban/rural temps & winds for Aug 2000 O 3 episode via uMM5 uMM5 Houston LU/LC & urban morphology parameters Houston LU/LC & urban morphology parameters TexAQS2000 field-study data TexAQS2000 field-study data USFS urban-reforestation scenarios  USFS urban-reforestation scenarios  UHI & O 3 changes

9.  GC influences: small  Air-mass movement: First along-shore (to west) from: flow along N-edge of cold-core atm-low  Then: Ship-Channel to Houston by Bay Breeze & UHI-convergence  max O 3  Finally: to NW of Houston by Gulf Breeze  Ob ozone contours (next slide): 5 ppb (00-16 UTC) & then 10 ppb meso O 3 transport-patterns: D-5: UTC episode-day obs of meso O 3 transport-patterns: influences of sea breeze & UHI-convergence

10. L H C Urban min + UHI Conv H Start of N-flow H L H Bay Breeze L due to titration H Gulf Breeze Near-max O 3

11. uMM5 Simulation period: 22-26 August 2000 Model configuration Model configuration 5 domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km 5 domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km (x, y) grid points: (x, y) grid points: (43x53, 55x55, 100x100, 136x151, 133x141 full-  levels: 29 in D 1-4 & 49 in D-5; lowest ½  level=7 m full-  levels: 29 in D 1-4 & 49 in D-5; lowest ½  level=7 m 2-way feedback in D 1-4 2-way feedback in D 1-4 Parameterizations/physics options Parameterizations/physics options > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling Inputs Inputs > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > LU/LC modifications (from Byun)

12. Episode-day Synoptics: 8/25, 12 UTC (08 DST) H H 700 hPa Surface 700 hPa & sfc GC H’s: at weakest (no gradient) over Texas  meso-scale forcing (sea breeze & UHI convergence) dominates

13. MM5: episode day, 3 PM > D–1: reproduces weak GC p-grad & flow > D-2: weak coastal-L > D-3: well-formed L  along-shore V L D-1 D-2 D-3

14. Domain 4 (3 PM) : cyclone off-Houston only on O 3 -day (25 th ) L L  Episode day day

15. Urbanized Domain 5: near-sfc 3-PM V, 4-days  Episode day day Cold-L Hot Cool

16. Along-shore flow, 8/25 (episode day): obs at 1500 UTC vs uMM5 (D-5) at 2000 UTC Tx2000 obs HGA obs D-5 (red box) uMM5 captured HGA obs of along-shore flow (from SST- BC cold-low) HGA Kriege uMM5 C

17. 1 km uMM5 Houston UHI: 8 PM, 21 Aug Upper L: MM5 UHI (2.0 K) Upper L: MM5 UHI (2.0 K) Upper R: uMM5 UHI (3.5 K) Upper R: uMM5 UHI (3.5 K) Lower L: (uMM5-MM5) UHI Lower L: (uMM5-MM5) UHI LU/LC error

18. 8/23 Daytime 2-m UHI: obs vs uMM5 (D-5) H OBS: 1 PM uMM5: 3 PM Cold UHI

19. UHI-Induced Convergence: obs vs. uMM5 OBSERVEDuMM5 C C C C

20. Base-case (current) veg-cover (0.1’s)  urban min (red)  rural max (green) Modeled changes of veg-cover (0.01’s) > Urban-reforestation (green) > Rural-deforestation (purple) min max increase

21. Run 12 (urban-max reforestation) minus Run 10 (base case): near-sfc ∆T at 4 PM reforested central urban-area cools & surrounding deforested rural-areas warm

22. D UHI(t) for Base-case minus Runs 15-18 D UHI(t) for Base-case minus Runs 15-18 U1 sea Ru U2 UHI = Average-T in urban-box minus that in rural-box UHI = Average-T in urban-box minus that in rural-box Runs 15-18: different urban re-forestation scenarios Runs 15-18: different urban re-forestation scenarios D UHI=Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI (max effect) D UHI=Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI (max effect) Reduced UHI  lower max-O 3 (not shown)  Reduced UHI  lower max-O 3 (not shown)  EPA emission-reduction credits  $ saved  Max-impact of –0.9 K of a 3.5 K Noon-UHI, of which a 3.5 K Noon-UHI, of which 1.5 K was from uMM5

23. NYC uMM5 Simulation: 9-15 March ‘05 Model configuration Model configuration 4 domains: 36, 12, 4, 1 km 4 domains: 36, 12, 4, 1 km (x, y) grid points: (x, y) grid points: (110x85, 91x91, 91x91, 33x33) full-  levels: 29 in D 1-3 & 48 in D-4; lowest ½  level=7 m full-  levels: 29 in D 1-3 & 48 in D-4; lowest ½  level=7 m 2-way feedback in D 1-3 2-way feedback in D 1-3 Parameterizations/physics options Parameterizations/physics options > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling Inputs Inputs > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > LU/LC modifications (from Byun)

24. D04 D03

25. 1900 UTC 11/3/2005 Domain 3 MM5: Surface Temp (K) and Wind ( flag = 5 m/s)

26. 1900 UTC 11/3/2005 Domain 4 uMM5 (Streamlines at z = 60 m AGL), where A-B is plane of following x-section A B

27. 1900 UTC 11/3/2005 Domain 4 uMM5 (Streamlines & Speed (purple lines, m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL: note z-cells from urban-induced con & divergence A 60 m 700 m B A B 1000 m

28. Concurrent Domain 4 uMM5 Speed (m/s, where flag = 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL Note large urban roughness has produced a speed-min over Manhattan, as this Is a high-speed non-UHI period

29. Concurrent domain 4 uMM5 Div (1/s) & Wind (flag = 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL Note convergence over Manhattan, as roughness slows wind Also note compensating divergence around the convergence area

30. Concurrent Domain 4 uMM5: w (m/s) & V (m/s) at 60 (left) and 700 (right) m AGL Note up-motion over Manhattan conv-area (of previous fig) and compensating down-motion in div-area around Manhattan

31. Pending: uWRF uWRF with NCAR (F. Chen) for DTRA uWRF with NCAR (F. Chen) for DTRA Martilli-Dupont urbanization Martilli-Dupont urbanization Burian lidar urban-parameters as f(x,y) Burian lidar urban-parameters as f(x,y) Taha stat-generalization of Burian urban- parameters for areas w/o lidar-obs Taha stat-generalization of Burian urban- parameters for areas w/o lidar-obs Freedman PBL-turbulence scheme Freedman PBL-turbulence scheme Zilitinkevich SfcBL stability-functions, z, etc. Zilitinkevich SfcBL stability-functions, z oh, etc. Steyn diagnostic h(x,y) scheme Steyn diagnostic h i (x,y) scheme SST (x,y,t) from J. Pullen SST (x,y,t) from J. Pullen

32. SJSU MM5 or uMM5 met output fields are available For ozone (design-day cases) and/or upper BCs for CFD or quick ER models for SFBA (MM5) SFBA (MM5) Houston (uMM5) Houston (uMM5) NYC (uMM5) NYC (uMM5) LA Basin (MM5) LA Basin (MM5)

33. Thanks Questions?