1. Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region Potential Impacts of Climatic Variability and Change Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography Michigan State University

2. Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Crop, forage productivity and production costs –Changing temperature, precipitation –CO 2 enrichment –Occurrence of extremes

3. Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Soil suitability –Soil Erosion –Oxidation of organic matter

4. Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Livestock productivity and production cost –Animal mortality –Feed conversion rates –Rates of gain –Milk production –Conception rates

5. Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity Irrigation water supply –Changes in precipitation frequency and totals –Changes in groundwater recharge rates –Changes in nonagricultural usage

12. Annual trends (yr -1 ) for selected simulated variables, soybean, 1895-1996 Station  PPT (mm)  PET (mm)  ET/ PET PAV fp (mm)  S (mm) Yield (kg/ha) WUE (kg/ha/mm) Chatham.722.126.190*.235*-.0329.188*.024* Coldwater.066-.326*.079*.167-.236*1.783.007 Eau Claire.227-.133*.084*.000-.233*4.543*.009* Grand Rapids 1.881*.090.224*.250*-.308*9.652*.020* Madison.465.047.080*.185*-.0794.944*.010* Waseca1.286*-.373*.193*.479*-.29415.069*.032* Worthing- ton -.235-.564*.126*.167-.1646.390*.014* * Trend significant at  =0.05 level

13. Projected Changes in Climate: Great Lakes Region While considerable differences and uncertainty exist, the majority of future climate simulations suggest a warmer and wetter climate across the region.

15. Estimated changes in national crop production in 2030 relative to 2000 (Reilly et al., 2001) CropDryland Yield Irrigated Yield Irrigation Water Use Corn+11 to +20% +1 to +21%-32 to +57% Soybeans+7 to +49%+23%0 to +18% Soft Wheat-3 to +58%-5 to +5%-26 to +3% Potatoes+7 to +8%-4 to –1%-3 to 0%

16. Ratios of GCM-projected future and POR historical scenario crop yields averaged over all stations AlfalfaMaizeSoybean Scenario HADCM2CGCM1HADCM2CGCM1HADCM2CGCM1 Future without CO 2 vs. Historical 1.06 1.111.261.131.24 Future with CO 2 vs. Historical 1.181.161.231.401.641.81 Future with CO 2 vs. Future without CO 2 1.111.091.11 1.451.46

19. Simulated Historical and Projected Future Growing Season and Water Balance for Maize, Bay City, MI Precipitation (mm) Evapotrans- piration (mm) Runoff(mm)Drainage(mm) Change in storage(mm) Time Period HAD CGCM HAD CGCM HAD CGCM HAD CGCM HAD CGCM 2026 – 2035 410314-460-432-50-20-7-5106143 2090 – 2099 394267-394-364-53-29-5-457130 Histor- ical 321-410-48-7145

20. Agricultural strategies for coping with climate change Adaptation –Learn to change, adapt Mitigation –Reduction of carbon and other GHG Carbon sequestration Production of fuels/energy from biomass/animal waste Reduction of CH 4 and N 2 O Use of alternative energy sources in production

22. Probability Distribution of Simulated Dryland Double Crop Soybean Yields by Planting Date Adrian, MI, 1895-2000

23. Probability Distribution of Simulated Irrigated Double Crop Soybean Yields by Planting Date Adrian, MI, 1895-2000

24. Summary A changing climate leads to many potential challenges for agricultural production systems. Observed climate has become wetter and cloudier in the Great Lakes Region, especially during the last 50 years. The single most important climatological variable associated with crop yields regionally is precipitation. Growing season length and GDD accumulation were relatively more important at northern study sites.

25. Summary (continued) The warmer and wetter climate suggested by the many GCM projections for our region would suggest yield increases for many crops. Yields of some crops in the region might decline. A significant portion of any future yield increases will be associated with CO 2 enrichment. Recent research results suggest greater agronomic potential for northern sections of the region, even with less suitable soils. More research is needed, especially regarding indirect impacts of climate change and extreme events.