1. Decision support system for risk reduction in agriculture Phase II: Soybean DSS for Eastern Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil IAI Small Grant Program for the Human Dimensions Panama, February 2008

2. Outline  Who we are  Goals & Objectives  Cooperators  Approach  Summary

3. Who are we? Julian Baez Universidad Nacional de Asuncion Mauricio Fernandes EMBRAPA-CNPT Norman Breuer University of Miami Clyde Fraisse University of Florida Victor Cabrera New Mexico State Willingthon Pavan Universidade de Passo Fundo

4. Goals & Objectives  Our main goal is to help producers mitigate climate risks affecting agriculture in Eastern Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul To conduct stakeholder assessments to better understand needs and expectations; To evaluate the impact of ENSO phases on soybean yields using crop simulation models; To strengthen the capacity of professionals in Paraguay, Brazil, and the USA in agricultural systems modeling, use of participatory research methods for climate research, and interdisciplinary collaboration.  Integrate with CRN II: Land use change in the Rio de La Plata Basin: Linking biophysical and human factors to predict trends, assets impacts, and support viable land- use strategies for the future

5. Where will we focus our research? Soybean cover in South America Source: www.mongabay.com Rio Grande do Sul 9.92 mmt of soybeans during the 06/07 cropping season Eastern Paraguay 5.85 mmt of soybeans during the 06/07 cropping season

6. Our Strategy: Work with Cooperatives in Brazil and Paraguay Cooperativa de Agricultores de Plantio Direto 12,000 members Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

7. 41 filiais Cooplantio 41 filiais Cooplantio 142 assessores técnicos 142 assessores técnicos

9. Seminário anual da Cooplantio

10. Sananduva 5/9/03

12. Brazil

13. Cooperatives – Paraguay 8 cooperatives in Itapua and Alto Parana ~ 300K ha

14. Cooperatives - Paraguay

15. Agrodinamica 2006, Cooperativa Colonias Unidas

16. Julian Baez – Presenting results from our IAI seed project CAPECO, Paraguay – 06/07 Cropping season

17. Research Plan Crop Modeling Component  DSSAT CROPGRO-Soybean Model  Data collection effort Historical weather data Soils Management  ENSO climate scenarios  Alternative planting dates and maturity groups  Results will be disseminated to producers via a web-based DSS

18. Previous Research – IAI Seed Project Fraisse et al., 2007 – El Niño – Southern Oscillation Influences on Soybean Yields in Eastern Paraguay. International Journal of Climatology (in press). Soybean Yields in Paraguay 1981/82 – 2006/07

19. Translating Crop Model Outputs to Farmers http://www.agclimate.org

20. Training  Modeling workshop will be offered at the University of Passo Fundo in October 2008

21. In Summary  Well qualified multidisciplinary team  Very well connected with stakeholders  Technical background and experience in participatory research and crop modeling  Experienced in developing web-based DSS  Ready to work but still waiting for solving contract language issues between the IAI and University of Florida

22. Thank you! cfraisse@ufl.edu

23. Roadblocks  Funds not available yet  Legal language between IAI and UF not compatible  Dozens of emails between sponsored programs, IAI, PI  The end appears in sight  Data collection in Paraguay will demand extra effort

24. Previous Research – IAI Seed Project Fraisse et al., 2007 – El Niño – Southern Oscillation Influences on Soybean Yields in Eastern Paraguay. International Journal of Climatology (in press). Precipitation Probability of Exceedance (a)Planting to flowering (b)Flowering to first seed (c)First seed to maturity (a) (b) (c)