1. Science Based Policy for Addressing Energy and Environmental Problems Robert Sawyer Class of 1935 Professor of Energy Emeritus University of California at Berkeley 32 nd International Symposium on Combustion McGill University, Montreal 6 August 2008

2. Science for Policy Decisions— Three Key Areas Air Pollution Global Warming Fuel Resources

3. GLOBAL WARMING

4. Global Average Radiative Forcing IPCC Fourth Assessment, 2007

5. Keeling Curve, CO 2 at Mauna Loa Red line is 57% of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions

6. Paleoclimate CO 2 and Temperature from Ice Core Data

7. Four Global Warming Questions 1) Is global warming occurring ? (science) 2) What is the cause? (science) 3) What are the likely consequences? (science based prediction) 4) What should we do about it? (policy)

8. Global Warming is Occurring Historical records of land and sea temperatures Satellite measurements

9. Global Warming is Occurring Mean Land and Ocean Temperatures

10. Annual Mean Global Temperature

11. Greenhouse Gas Warming is Moderated by Negative Forcings

12. We Are the Cause of Global Warming Anthropogenic contributions dominate radiative forcings that control earth’s temperature IPCC Fourth Assessment: “There is a very high confidence that the global average new effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W/m 2 ”

13. The Consequences of Global Warming are Uncertain Some effects are already observable –Arctic ice is shrinking more rapidly than predicted –Tundra melting, increased Greenland ice cap summer melt, breakup of West Antarctic shelf Model based projections match historical temperature data

14. 2007 Minimum Sea Ice Extent September 1979-1983 Average September 2002-2006 Average Universität Bremen

15. Sea Level Rise Impact

16. Implications for Combustion Global Warming Improve efficiency of combustion and end- use devices (efficiency, efficiency, efficiency) Carbon capture and sequestration presents challenges and opportunities Control of more frequent large forest fires Lower carbon alternatives to petroleum

17. FUEL RESOURCES

18. Fossil Fuel Resources far Exceed 1750–2004 Consumption Source: Hansen 2006, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/agu_communicating.pdf

19. Production Costs and Supplies of Liquid Transportation Fuels Farrell and Brandt

20. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, New Passenger Cars

21. Fossil Fuel Use Trends note different scales

22. Implications for Combustion Fuel Resources Lower carbon alternatives to petroleum Electricity begins to displace combustion fuels in surface transportation Hydrogen a long term (mid-century) option Prepare for a phase down of carbon fuels

23. Los Angeles Beijing AIR POLLUTION Guatemala

24. Air Pollutants CO SO 2 NO 2 O 3 Pb Particulates Air contaminants/air toxics

25. Adverse Health Effects Evidence Human clinical exposures Animal studies Epidemiology –Large samples (statistical strength) –Relevant, real-world exposures –Uncertain exposures Shift from pulmonary to cardiovascular effects

26. Air Quality Goals

27. Mortality Relative Risks from 10-µg/m3 Increase in PM 2.5 Mortality Relative Risks from 10-µg/m3 Increase in PM 2.5 Jarrett, et al.

28. U.S. EPA Diesel Emissions and Fuel Regulations

29. Particulate Matter TSP: total suspended particulate PM 10 PM 2.5 PM x Nanoparticles

30. Size (and Chemical Composition) Matters …but are not regulated oxy-PAH’s

31. Implications for Combustion Indoor Air Pollution

32. Implications for Combustion Air Pollution Industrialized countries have reduced combustion generated pollutant emissions [gm/MJ] by about 98% –Total emissions diminished by growth –Transfer to developing countries Urgent public health need to reduce cooking and heating emissions in agrarian and developing societies