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Financial stability report 2007:1 24 May 2007
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CHAPTER 1 Financial markets
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Ten-year government bond rates Per cent Chart 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Stock markets Index, 2 January 2002 = 100 Chart 1:2 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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P/E ratios Chart 1:3 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Implied stock-market volatility Per cent Chart 1:4 Source: Bloomberg
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Global level of bankruptcies Percentage of all companies rated Ba/BBB or lower Chart 1:5 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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High-yield corporate bond spreads in Europe and the United States Percentage points Chart 1:6 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Premia in CDS indices Basis points Chart 1:7 Source: Bloomberg
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Households with payment problems in the US house mortgage market Per cent, seasonally adjusted Chart B1 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
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Premia for credit derivatives on US house mortgage loans Basis points Chart B2 Source: JP Morgan Note. Loans classified as BBB−.
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Credit spreads for bonds issued by emerging-market economies Percentage points Chart 1:8 Source: Bloomberg
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Oil price and commodity price index USD per barrel and index, January 2002=100 Chart 1:9 Sources: Reuters EcoWin och The Economist
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GDP growth Percentage annual rate Chart B3 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Balance on current account Per cent of GDP Chart B4 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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HICP inflation Percentage 12-month rate Chart B5 Source: Eurostat
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Real interbank interest rates Per cent Chart B6 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Corporate loan stocks in the Baltic states and Sweden Per cent Chart B7 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin
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Household sector loan stocks in the Baltic states and Sweden Per cent Chart B8 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin
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CHAPTER 2 The Swedish banks´ borrowers
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Household borrowing Percentage 12-month change Chart 2:1 Source: The Riksbank
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Duration of fixed interest periods for new house mortgage loans Per cent Chart 2:2 Source: The Riksbank
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Household debt and post-tax interest expenditure in relation to disposable income Per cent Chart 2:3 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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House prices and mortgage debt Percentage annual change Chart 2:4 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Households below the margin, impaired loans and potential loan losses Per cent Chart 2:5 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank 0 2 4 6 8 10 2000200120022003200420052006 (forecast) Households below the marginImpaired loansPotential loan losses
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Proportions of debt, financial wealth and real wealth held by the indebted households in each income group Per cent Chart 2:6 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Household sector loan stocks in the Baltic states and Sweden Per cent Chart 2:7 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin
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Nominal and real house price increases 2000 – 2006 in Nordic countries and the Baltic states Per cent Chart 2:8 Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcoWin
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Nominal and real house price increases 2000 – 2006 in Nordic countries and the Baltic states Per cent Chart B9 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Corporate borrowing from credit institutions Percentage twelve-month change, moving three month average Chart 2:9 Source: The Riksbank
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Corporate loans from securities markets and credit institutions SEK billion Chart 2:10 Source: The Riksbank
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Ratio of debt to total assets in listed companies Per cent of all listed companies Chart 2:11 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
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Number of corporate defaults by company size Twelve-month moving average Chart 2:12 Source: Statistics Sweden
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Expected default frequency (EDF) by industry for listed non-financial companies Per cent Chart 2:13 Source: Moody’s KMV
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Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed non-financial companies Per cent Chart 2:14 Source: Moody’s KMV
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Listed companies with a default probability of 1 per cent or more Per cent of all listed companies Chart 2:15 Sources: Moody´s KMV and the Riksbank
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Expected default frequency (EDF), outcomes and forecast with the Riksbank’s main scenario Per cent Chart 2:16 Sources: National central banks
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Corporate borrowing from credit institutions in the Baltic states Percentage 12-month change Chart 2:17 Sources: National central banks
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Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed property companies Per cent Chart 2:18 Source: Moody´s KMV
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Real prices for office premises in central locations Index 1981 = 100 Chart 2:19 Sources: Newsec AB and the Riksbank
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Vacancy rates for office premises in central locations Per cent Chart 2:20 Sources: Newsec AB and the Riksbank
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Average direct yield required for office premises in central locations Per cent Chart 2:21 Sources: Newsec AB and EcoWin
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Chapter 3 Developments in the banks
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Composition of pre-tax return on equity Percentage points Chart 3:1 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Profit before loan losses and net loan losses in the major banks Four-quarter totals, SEK billion, 2007 prices Chart 3:2 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Implied volatility of bank equity Per cent, moving 10-day average Chart 3:3 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
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The major banks’ securities-related commission income and Stockholm Stock Exchange turnover SEK million and index: 1997=100 Sources: Banks reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Chart 3:4
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Cost efficiency of the major Swedish banks Per cent Chart 3:5 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Net interest margin and spreads for the major banks on deposits, bank loans and mortgage loans Per cent, moving 4-quarter average Chart B10 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Lending by credit institutions to the corporate sector in Sweden Per cent, moving 4-quarter average Chart 3:6 Source: The Riksbank
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Geographical composition of lending December 2006, per cent Chart 3:7 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Lending to the general public in Sweden and abroad Percentage annual change, 2007 Q1 Chart 3:8 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Provisions for incurred and probable loan losses Per cent of loan stock, accumulated over four quarters Chart 3:9 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Tier 1 capital ratios of the four major Swedish banks Per cent Chart 3:10 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The major Swedish banks’ deposits, lending and deposit deficit SEK billion Chart 3:11 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Interest-bearing assets and liabilities December 2006, SEK billion Chart 3:12 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The lowest Tier 1 capital ratio among the other three major Swedish banks if the fourth has suspended payments Per cent Chart 3:13 Source: The Riksbank
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Post-tax returns on equity in the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Per cent Chart 3:14 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Net interest and commission incomes for the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Percentage annual change, accumulated over four quarters Chart 3:15 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Net loan losses in relation to loan stocks for the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Per cent Chart 3:16 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Tier 1 capital ratios of the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Per cent Chart 3:17 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Bank profits with the scenario for the Baltic states Expected profit less the change in expected losses, SEK million Chart 3:18 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Cover for credit risk with the scenario for the Baltic states Per cent Chart 3:19 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Bank profits in the scenario with a turn in the credit cycle Expected profit less the change in expected losses, SEK million Chart 3:20 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Cover for credit risk in the scenario with a turn in the credit cycle Per cent Chart 3:21 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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CHAPTER 4 The financial infrastructure
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Evaluation of the financial infrastructure Figur 4:1
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ARTICLE Trading activity in credit derivatives and implications for financial stability
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Outward and inward integration in the EU25 bank sector at end 2005 Chart 1 Source: ECB and the Riksbank
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