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Www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project By: James Bernard Supervised By: Charles Todd (Department of Sustainability and Environment) Simon Nicol (Department.

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1 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project By: James Bernard Supervised By: Charles Todd (Department of Sustainability and Environment) Simon Nicol (Department of Sustainability and Environment) Charles Twardy (Monash University) David Green (Monash University) Building Bayesian Models for the Analysis of Critical Knowledge Gaps in Australian Freshwater Fish

2 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 2 Introduction Aim Growth Curves New Growth Curves New Curves using Data Clustering Future Work

3 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 3 Aim Overall Goal (Big Picture): –Predict the sustainability of the Murray Cod > Growth Curves > Survival Rate (Mortality) > Population Modelling

4 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 4 Growth Curves Considered various curves: –von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, Logistic Reviewed previous experts curves: –Anderson (1992) –Gooley (1995) –Rowland (1998) –Todd (unpublished)

5 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 5 Existing Growth Curves: Rowland

6 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 6 Existing Growth Curves: Anderson

7 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 7 Existing Growth Curves: Todd

8 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 8 Existing Growth Curves: Gooley

9 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 9 Existing Growth Curves (equations) RowlandToddAnderson 136913071202 k 0.060.080.108 -5.209-2.481-0.832 Parameters: Equation: (von Bertalanffy)

10 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 10 Difference (0-5)

11 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 11 Difference (0-5) continued… RowlandToddAnderson 367.47237.81103.30 What happens to the differences between these curves if is set to zero?

12 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 12 New Growth Curves RowlandToddAnderson 116111661210 k 0.12630.13930.10 (0) Parameters: Equation: (von Bertalanffy) = 0 Note:

13 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 13 New Growth Curves: Rowland 0

14 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 14 New Growth Curves: Anderson 00

15 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 15 New Growth Curves: Todd 00 0

16 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 16 Evaluating the New Curves New Curves vs Old Curves 0 0 0

17 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 17 New Growth Curves: Using Data Clustering New Data Set: Only lengths (no age) Data Clustering provides: Length-Classes –using Minimum Message Length (MML) approach Expert Knowledge: Assign approximate ages to the classes Results: Three New Growth Curves modelling different amounts of uncertainty

18 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 18 New Growth Curves: Achieved by Data Clustering Class 1: Length: 50-150mm -> Age: 0-1 Class 2: Length: 150-250mm -> Age: 1-2 Class 3: Length: 250-600mm -> Age: 2-5 Class 4: Length: 600-1000mm -> Age: 3-9 Class 5: Length: 1000-1350mm -> Age 9+ Length (mm) Number (fish in each class) Data Clustering Murray Cod lengths

19 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 19 New Growth Curves: Using Data Clustering D/Clus 1D/Clus 2D/Clus 3 136214311585 k 0.100.080.06 -0.16-0.56-1.21 Parameters: Equation: (von Bertalanffy)

20 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 20 New Growth Curves: Using Data Clustering D/Clus 1D/Clus 2D/Clus 3 133012891199 k 0.10420.10260.1115 (0) Parameters: Equation: (von Bertalanffy) =0 Note:

21 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 21 New Growth Curves: Using Data Clustering 000

22 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 22 Comparing Existing Curves to New Curves 00

23 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 23 Summary Improved Existing Curves –Using old data sets Created New Curves –Using new data sets and data clustering –The curve modelling the most uncertainty provided the best fit to otolith data –In all cases setting = 0 provided the best fit to recapture data

24 www.csse.monash.edu.au/~jbernard/Project 24 Future Work We do plan on modelling the entire population –Our next step is developing a Bayesian model for determining survival rates! Stay tuned: –http://www.csse.monash.edu.au/jbernard/Project

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