1. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Biodiversity in South Africa Michelle Lau ‘12 Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School, Summer 2010

2. Woodrow Wilson School STEP Program  STEP: The Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy  Goals of the program are to develop an understanding of:  The nature of scientific, technological and environmental problems and opportunities  The specialized methods used for analyzing scientific, technological and environmental issues  The dynamics of science and technology in relation to national and international institutions and organizations

3. Project Background and Goals  Project aims to investigate the potential impacts to biodiversity and agriculture that result from human responses to climate change  Focus on South Africa because it is a region highly vulnerable to climate change and has a large, diverse agricultural sector  First stage involves preparing data and running crop models  Worked closely with Lyndon Estes, post-doctoral researcher of the Woodrow Wilson School in the STEP Program

4. What I Did: Data Preparation  Before running the crop models, I prepared wheat and maize yield data received from South Africa  Detrended yield data to remove any market influences  Also prepared soils data and climate data

5. What I Did: Crop Model Runs  Used DSSAT, which models crop yields using soil, climate, and planting information  Performed a Sensitivity Analysis to determine how sensitive the model was to certain variables  Tuned cultivar coefficients

6. Reflections  Became familiar with new programs, ArcGIS, DSSAT, R  Learned how to work independently and developed research skills  Will continue to work with post-doctoral researcher into the school year

7. Thank You!  Lyndon Estes, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Woodrow Wilson School and the Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy  Michael Oppenheimer, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs  David Wilcove, Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs  Grand Challenges Internship Program