1. Climate History Leading up to 2002 Drought Colorado Climate Center Roger Pielke, Sr, Director and Nolan Doesken, Research Associate Prepared by Odie Bliss & Tara Green Prepared by Odie Bliss & Tara Green http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu

2. Climate Prediction Is there skill? Is there skill? What spatial scales are required? What spatial scales are required? What is climate? What is climate?

3. COLORADO NEEDS What would be the impact today of historical droughts? What would be the impact today of historical droughts? What would be the impact today of paleo- droughts? What would be the impact today of paleo- droughts? What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm weather reoccurred for 2002-2003? What if the 2001-2002 dry, warm weather reoccurred for 2002-2003? How can we make Colorado more resilient to droughts? How can we make Colorado more resilient to droughts? What are the definitions of the multi- dimensional character of droughts. What are the definitions of the multi- dimensional character of droughts.

4. EXAMPLES OF DROUGHTS Snow does not fall in the mountains until late January Snow does not fall in the mountains until late January It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains occur in eastern Colorado in August It is dry in April-July, but soaking rains occur in eastern Colorado in August The weather of 2001-2002 repeats for the next five years The weather of 2001-2002 repeats for the next five years Colorado’s mountains have 90% of average snow for the next 20 years. Colorado’s mountains have 90% of average snow for the next 20 years.

6. Vulnerability Assessment A vulnerability assessment of risk to climate and other environmental stress is, therefore, more appropriate as guides to Policy Makers, than trying to predict only a subset of possible future climate conditions.

7. Websites Pielke Research Group Web site Pielke Research Group Web site –http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu Colorado Climate Center Web site Colorado Climate Center Web site –http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu

13. Image from Allen and Breshears, 1998, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, pp. 14839-14842

14. From Edwards & McKee, 1997: Climo. Report 97-2

15. Figure courtesy of J.R. Hannamean

16. Figure courtesy of Jeff Lukas

18. Source: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/temperature/

19. Total Precipitation Analysis September 2001 – August 2002 Ranking by Station Climatic Stations Year of Record Rank Amount of Precipitation Grand Lake 1 NW1940-2002112.55 Taylor Park1941-2002110.42 Grand Junction WSO A1892-200285.54 Meeker1891-2002710.37 Montrose No. 21896-200235.83 Mesa Verde NP1923-200217.43 Del Norte 2 E1940-200213.19 Center 4 SSW1891-200212.44 Colorado Springs WSO1892-200216.5 Pueblo WSO1891-200213.8 Rocky Ford 2 SE1892-200213.62 Cheyenne Wells1897-200249.16 Akron 4 E1905-200219.4 Leroy 7 WSW1891-2002310.58 Kassler1899-2002812.56

20. Figure 2. Geographic anomalies in temperature trends in eastern Colorado. from Pielke et al., 2002, "Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from Eastern Colorado USA", Int. J. Climatol., 22, 421-434. Figure 2. Geographic anomalies in temperature trends in eastern Colorado. from Pielke et al., 2002, "Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from Eastern Colorado USA", Int. J. Climatol., 22, 421-434.

21. Water Year 2002 (Oct. 2001-Sept. 2002) Precipitation % of Average

22. Klaus Wolter’s Climate Divisions

23. Temperature Anomaly June 2002

24. Temperature Anomaly July 2002

25. Temperature Anomaly August 2002

26. Fort Collins All STI Months by Year

62. Fort Collins January STI

63. Fort Collins February STI

64. Fort Collins March STI

65. Fort Collins April STI

66. Fort Collins May STI

67. Fort Collins June STI

68. Fort Collins July STI

69. Fort Collins August STI

70. Fort Collins September STI

71. Fort Collins October STI

72. Fort Collins November STI

73. Fort Collins December STI