1. 2011 Swedish Schumpeter Lecture William B. Gartner

2. Has it failed?

3. Are solutions to yesterday’s problems. - William B. Gartner

4. Will what we learned about “yesterday” work today?

5. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it

6. History repeats itself, and that's one of the things that's wrong with history.

7. History repeats itself. Historians repeat each other.

8. History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.

9. Inflation - 9% Unemployment – 9%

10. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_qgV n-Op7Q

11. This is like deja vu all over again.

12. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism.

13. http://fathom.info/fortune500/

14. Is the business environment.

18. Financial period Net sales (Mil USD) Net profits (Mil USD) Revenue growth Return on net sales FY 1981335unknown--- FY 19825836174%10% FY 19839837769%8% FY 19841,5166454%4% FY 19851,9186127%3% FY 19861,902154-1%8% FY 19872,66121840%8% FY 19884,07140053%10% FY 19895,28445430%9% FY 19905,5584755%9% FY 19916,30931012%5% FY 19927,08753012%7% FY 19937,9778713%1% FY 19949,18931046%3% FY 199511,06242420%4% FY 19969,833-816-11%-8% FY 19977,081-1,045-28%-15% FY 19985,941309-16%5% FY 19996,1346013%10% FY 20007,98378630%10% FY 20015,363-25-33%0% FY 20025,24765-2%1% FY 20036,2075718%1% FY 20048,27926633%3% FY 200513,9311,32868%10% FY 200619,3151,98939%10% FY 200724,5783,49527%14% FY 200837,4916,11953%16% FY 2009 [60] [60] 42,9058,23514%19% FY 201065,22514,01352%21%

19. 1976: Apple 1

20. 1977: Apple II

21. 1980: Apple III

22. 1984: MacIntosh (9/84 - $25.12)

23. 1985: MacIntosh XL (9/85 - $ 15.75) * 1986: MacIntosh Plus (9/86 - $ 33.50) 1987: MacIntosh II (9/87 - $ 56.50)

24. 1988: (9/88 - $ 43.25) 1989: MacIntosh Portable (9/89 - $ 44.50) 1990: MacIntosh Classic (9/90 - $29.00)*

25. 1991: Quadra + Powerbook (9/91 - $ 49.50) 1992: (9/92 - $ 45.13) 1993: Newton (9/93 - $ 23.27)

26. 1994: (9/94 - $33.69) 1995: (9/95 - $37.25) 1996: (9/96 - $22.19)* 1997: G3 (9/97 – $21.69) **

27. 1998: (9/98 – $38.13) 1999: IBook (9/99 - $63.31) 2000: (9/00 - $25.75)

28. 2001: IPod (9/01 - $15.51) 2002: (9/02 - $14.50) 2003: ITunes (9/03 – $20.72)

29. 2004: (9/04 - $38.75) 2005: (9/05 - $53.61) 2006: MacBook (9/06 - $76.98)

30. 2007: IPhone, Nano, Touch (9/07 - $153.47) 2008: IPhone 3G (9/08 - $113.66) 2009: IPhone 3GS (9/09 - $185.35)

31. 2010: IPad (9/10 - $283.75) 2011: IPad 2 (9/11 - $381.32)

32. Persistence pays off?

33. Success comes out of failure?

34. All good things must come to an end.

35. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45mMi oJ5szc

36. Play by Rules Competition is Visible Understandable Score Keeping Failure is not Devastating (You Play Again)

37. Transparency of Process (Know That You Are Failing!)

38. Affordable Loss

39. Measurable Milestones (Outcomes)

40. Uncertainty and Ambiguity Requires Experimentation

41. In Order to Fail You Have to Try.

42. Evolution begins with variation.

44. Act always so as to increase the number of choices. Handle stets so, daß die Anzahl der Wahlmöglichkeiten größer wird.

45. Evolution is not “progressive.” There is no inevitability that we will be better off.