1. The Non-Future of Oil Change is the norm... Climates change Sea level rises and falls Ecosystems change Human culture changes…. A huge change is coming…in your lifetime… The end of oil Doug Smith 2003

2. The Non-Future of Oil The following few slides are calculations of how much longer Earth will have oil to “burn.” (or to turn into useful things like plastic) The data are recent numbers from the DOE and DOI web resources.

3. How fast are we using oil? Global consumption = 77 million barrels/day U.S. consumption = 19.65 million barrels/day So….U.S. accounts for 25% of the global usage Department of Energy http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/table12.html

4. What about ANWR? (Alaska National Wildlife Refuge) ANWR has about 10.4 BBL at last estimate 10.4 BBL / 19.65 million barrels/day = 529 days or 1.45 years (and about 8 years lagtime between drilling to “burning”) Department of Interior http://www.doi.gov/news/030312.htm

5. Data from… http://www.economagic.com 1973 2003 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 U.S. Oil Consumption Millions of Barrels/Day

6. Data from… http://www.economagic.com 1973 2003 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 U.S. Oil Production U.S. Oil Consumption Millions of Barrels/Day

7. Data from… http://www.economagic.com 1973 2003 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 U.S. Oil Production U.S. Oil Consumption Millions of Barrels/Day Red bar = 1.5 yr… How long ANWR would last if used at our current rate

8. Imports = 10 million barrels/day 100% * 10 million/19.65 million = 51% Feeling secure yet? But we are self dependent, Right? 19732003 US Imports

9. What about “strategic reserves?” We are pumping reserve oil into cavernous salt domes for later withdrawal during oil “droughts.” We have 600 million barrels now 600 million barrels / 19.65 million barrels/day = 31 days Feeling secure yet? Department of Energy http://www.fe.doe.gov/spr/exchange/index.shtml

10. How much oil is left on Earth? Global reserves = 1200 billion barrels (BBL) 1200 BBL / 77 million barrels/day = 15558 days of oil left OR 15558 days / 365 days/yr = 43 yrs left Assuming no change in rate of use… Department of Energy http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html

11. Will rate of oil use remain constant with exponential population growth? Maybe there are fewer than 43 years of oil left.

12. Summary U.S. uses 25% of oil in world today. There are 43 years worth left on your planet. We import over 50%, and the trend is rising. Bush admin. seeks to drill ANWR for 1.5 years worth of oil. We have 31 days of oil tucked away for good measure. U.S. desperately needs a sane energy strategy for national and global security

13. What will change without oil? (assuming no alternative fuels emerge) Cheap Air travel? Individual automobiles? Plastics? Global food distribution? Unemployment in a huge industrial sector? Oil-burning thermoelectric plants? Air quality improvement?