1. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 1 Evaluation of the NASA Land Information System using the Rapid Prototyping Capabilities Valentine Anantharaj * on behalf of LIS Evaluation Team Paul Houser †, Christa Peters-Lidard **, Georgy Mostovoy *, LIS Team ** * Mississippi State university - GeoResources Institute † George Mason University ** NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

2. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 2 Outline 1.The identified federal partner and their decision support needs; and how NASA can meet those needs 2.Land data assimilation at NASA 3.Purpose and goals of RPC experiment 4.Proposed LIS evaluation activities 5.Expected societal benefits 6.LIS evaluation team 7.Risk Analysis

3. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 3 Federal Partner and Decision Support Needs

4. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 4 About our federal partner: USDA NRCS … NRCS Vision: –“Harmony between people in the land” Future Goal: –“A globally recognized source for top quality spatial snow, water, climate, and hydrologic network of information and technology” Mission –Natural resource conservation

5. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 5 About NASA Applied Sciences … NASA's vision is "to improve life here" and our mission is "to understand and protect our home planet".

6. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 6 About NASA Applied Sciences … NASA's vision is "to improve life here" and our mission is "to understand and protect our home planet". Applications extend the NASA vision and mission by enabling and facilitating the assimilation of Earth observations and prediction outputs into decision support tools. The purpose is to enhance the performance of the decision support resources to serve society through Earth exploration from space.

7. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 7 Assessment, decision support, management, and conservation natural resources: Partner Activities irrigation water supply nutrients animal waste pests salinity water quality key drivers Water Soils Water Soils

8. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 8 Identified Partner Need Routine analysis soil moisture over the continental needs water soils sun weather climate vegetation terrain water soils sun weather climate vegetation terrain observe, model, assimilate

9. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 9 Identified Decision Support Tool

10. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 10 USDA-NRCS SCAN DST 115 stations across the United States real time and near real time observations meteor burst technology for communications primarily near agricultural regions

11. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 11 SCAN DST: A National Priority National Research Council recommended priority NASA and USDA-NRCS are principal partners in National Integrated Drought Information System NIDIS is envisioned to be a “drought early warning system” Identified by USGEO as significant component of NIDIS

12. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 12 Relevant NASA Capabilities, Data, and Research Results

13. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 13 NASA Assets and Capabilities

14. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 14 NASA Data Products Useful for LIS ClassObservationTechniqueExample PlatformTemporalSpatial Land Parameters Leaf area and greennessoptical/IRAVHRR, MODIS, NPOESSweekly1km Albedooptical/IRMODIS, NPOESSweekly1km Emissivityoptical/IRMODIS, NPOESSweekly1km Vegetation structureLidarICESAT, ESSP lidar missionweekly-monthly100m Topographyin-situ survey, radarGTOPO30, SRTMepisodic30m–1km Land ForcingsWind profileradar Air Humidity and temperatureIR, MWTOVS, GOES, AVHRR, MODIS, AMSRhourly-weekly5 km Near- surface radiationoptical/IRGOES, MODIS, CERES, ERBS, etc.hourly-weekly1km Precipitationmicrowave/IRTRMM, GPM, SSMI, GEO-IR, etc.hourly-monthly10km Land StatesTemperatureIR, in-situIR-GEO, MODIS, AVHRR, TOVShourly-monthly10m-4km Thermal anomaliesIR, NIR, opticalAVHRR, MODIS, TRMMdaily-weekly250m–1km Snow cover and wateroptical, microwaveSSMI, TM, MODIS, AMSR, AVHRR, etc.weekly-monthly1km Freeze/thawradarQuickscat, HYDROS, IceSAT, CryoSATweekly3km Total water storagegravityGRACEmonthly1000km Soil moistureactive/passive microwaveSSMI, AMSR, HYDROS, SMOS, etc.3-30 day10-100 km Land FluxesEvapotranspirationoptical/IR, in-situMODIS, GOEShourly-weekly10m-4km Solar radiationoptical, IRMODIS, GOES, CERES, ERBShourly-monthly Longwave radiationoptical, IRMODIS, GOEShourly-monthly10m-4km Sensible heat fluxIRMODIS, ASTER, GOEShourly-monthly10m-4km

15. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 15 Land Data Assimilation Energy and moisture fluxes, at different spatial and temporal scales, at the land-atmosphere interface is modulated by the land surface conditions Hence, accurate initialization is critical Remotely sensed and in-situ data provide key initial conditions Land models provide information about land-surface state, essential for improving environmental assessment and prediction and decision support

16. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 16 Land Surface Model Physics (Houser)

17. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 17 An Integrated Framework for Land Data Assimilation System Applications Inputs Outputs Physics Topography, Soils Water Supply & Demand, Agriculture, Hydro- Electric Power, Endangered Species, Water Quality Improved Short Term & Long Term Predictions Land Cover and Vegetation (MODIS, AMSR, TRMM, SRTM) Meteorology Modeled & Observed (TRMM, GOES, Station) Observed Land States (Snow, ET, Soil Moisture, Water, Carbon, etc.) Land Surface Models (LSM) Physical Process Models Noah, CLM, VIC, SiB2, Mosaic, Catchment, etc. Data Assimilation Modules (EnKF, EKF) Rule-based Water Fluxes: Runoff Surface States: Moisture, Carbon, Ts Energy Fluxes: Le & H Biogeo- chemistry: Carbon, Nitrogen, etc. (Peters-Lidard, Houser, Kumar, Tian, Geiger)

18. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 18 Land Surface Data Assimilation Soil Moisture Assimilation Observation Assimilation with Bias Correction Assimilation No Assimilation Skin Temperature Assimilation SSM/I Snow Observation Snow Water Assimilation Theory Development

19. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 19 Soil Moisture Assimilation: Walnut Gulch Tombstone, AZ 0% 20% Houser et al., 1998

20. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 20 NASA Land Information System (LIS)

21. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 21 LIS: Introduction A high-resolution land surface modeling and data assimilation system based on the successful Global Land Data Assimilation System High-performance parallel computing software that enables near-real time modeling at the scale of Earth Observing System-era observations (1 km 2 ) Incorporates innovative and sophisticated data management system with Internet technologies High-quality software technology with a strong, expanding user base Based on community standards such as ESMF and ALMA

22. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 22 LIS: History and Current Status Funded by NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Computational Technologies Project (CT) CAN for “Grand Challenge Applications” in 2002 Award Winning Technology LIS team from 3 GSFC branches and UMBC GEST center 4 major software releases Over 150,000 lines of C/Fortran90 code Over 150 registered users from over 30 countries A Linux cluster with 200 nodes built as test bed

23. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 23 LIS External Internal 25km 1km 5km LIS: Scalability 200 Node “LIS” Cluster Optimized I/O, GDS Servers

24. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 24 Interoperability with standards: The Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) LIS Ocean Models Atmos. Models 12-Hours Ahead Atmospheric Model Forecasts With LIS Without LIS Observed Rainfall WRF-LIS Coupled Modeling Capabilities

25. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 25 Hypothetical Error Requirement 37 Snow Water Equivalent Retrieval Error vs. Revisit Time Horizontal Resolution (m) OSSE Capabilities of LIS – Mission Planning

26. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 26 Purpose of RPC Experiments for LIS Evaluations

27. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 27 Purpose of RPC Experiments … Goal 1: –Evaluate LIS capabilities and NASA data to support the enhancement USDA-NRCS SCAN decision support tool Approach: –Evaluate LIS and identified NASA data by performing Observation Sensitivity Experiments (OSE) –Derive physically consistent soil moisture maps at a range of spatial resolutions from 25x25 km 2 to 1x1 km 2 –Quantify uncertainties at all scales

28. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 28 Purpose of RPC Experiments … Goal 2: –Evaluate LIS capabilities and NASA data to support the extension USDA-NRCS SCAN network Approach: –Evaluate LIS and identified NASA data by performing Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) –For a region of interest, define and evaluate network optimization approaches by identifying network configurations for maximum impact –Quantify uncertainties

29. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 29 Purpose of RPC Experiments … Goal 3: –Evaluate the model coupling capabilities of LIS Approach: –Evaluate the ESMF coupling capabilities for a couple WRF-LIS configuration –For a region of interest, perform case studies for one or more meteorological events –Quantify and qualify impacts of coupling

30. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 30 Purpose of RPC Experiments … Goal 4: –Evaluate and demonstrate the usefulness of LIS as a customizable and cross-cutting resource that can be readily adopted, proto-typed, and deployed Approach: –Demonstrate the usefulness of LIS by providing LIS derived data to one or more MRC funded ISS projects –Document the lessons learned for future enhancements of LIS

31. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 31 Purpose of RPC Experiments Goal 5: –Help enhance the RPC Performance Metric Workbench Approach: –Help define evaluation metrics –Share existing and new evaluation tools and software –Provide expert consultations to the PMW development team –Integrate relevant PMW capabilities into LIS V&V package

32. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 32 LIS Evaluation Activities

33. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 33 LIS Evaluation Activities 1.LIS Performance Analysis 2.Observation Sensitivity Experiments (OSE) 3.Observing System Sensitivity Experiments (OSSE) 4.WRF-LIS Model Coupling Evaluation Experiments 5.Cross-cutting Demonstrations 6.PMW Evaluation Package

34. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 34 LIS Performance Analysis (technical overhead & supporting activities) Computational and storage requirements Reliability and security Identify optimal LSM configuration for RPC experiments Data management activities Elaboration of partner and NASA risks Evaluation of the incorporation of identified NASA data into LIS (MODIS: LAI, NDVI, albedo) LIS experiments integration into RPC

35. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 35 Observation Sensitivity Experiments for SCAN Enhancement Evaluation of data assimilation techniques –EKF, EnKF Data assimilation (land state) –Soil moisture Soil moisture stations AMSR-E –Temperature MODIS LST Sensitivity studies Outcomes: soil moisture analysis product, uncertainty characterization

36. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 36 OSSEs for SCAN Extension Identify region for pilot study “Truth” run(s) Open loop control run(s) Selective data assimilation run(s) Network optimization analysis Network prioritization Outcomes: evaluation report, identified ISS pathway

37. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 37 WRF-LIS Coupling Experiments Identification of case studies Consultations with SPoRT and NOAA WRF-LIS runs: –Uncoupled WRF –WRF with LIS forcing using Noah LSM –WRF with soil moisture assimilated LIS forcing –Coupled WRF-LIS run(s) Outcomes: evaluation report, quantitative and qualitative assessment

38. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 38 Cross-Cutting Demonstrations Evaluate LIS capabilities in conjunction with MRC ISS project on assessment of forest fire risk potential Region of study to focus on MS Gulf coast and other forests in MS Evaluate the utility of USFS station data

39. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 39 RPC PMW Evaluation Package Help integrate any available evaluation tools and packages Provide expert advice to PMW development team

40. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 40 Deliverables Evaluation report(s) Peer-reviewed journal article(s) ISS recommendation(s)

41. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 41 Risk Analysis System incompatibilities Security issues Intellectual property Quality, availability, suitability of data –AMSR-E, in-situ data –Validation data Technical and scientific issues –Data assimilation, inconsistencies Personnel, political, funding risks

42. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 42 Anticipated Societal Benefits 1.provides critical information to support drought monitoring and mitigation 2.provides critical information for predicting droughts based on weather and climate predictions 3.supports irrigation water management 4.supports fire risk assessment 5.supports water supply forecasting and NWS flood forecasting 6.supplies a critical missing component to assist with snow, climate and associated hydrometeorological data analysis 7.supports climate change assessment 8.enables water quality monitoring 9.supports a wide variety of natural resource management & research activities such as NASA remote sensing activities of soil moisture and ARS watershed studies.

43. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 43 LIS Evaluation Team & Collaborators LIS Team: –Valentine Anantharaj and Georgy Mostovoy (MSU GRI) –Paul Houser (GMU CREW) –Christa Peters-Lidard (NASA GSFC HSB) –LIS Team at GSFC Collaborators –USDA NRCS –NASA MSFC SPoRT (?) and NOAA –NASA GMAO (?)

44. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 44 Data RPC EVALUATIONS, V&V USDA-NRCS SCAN DST Observations VALUE & BENEFITS EARTH SYSTEM MODELS EARTH OBSERVATIONS Predictions *Next Generation Missions Atmosphere: ground-based measurements (WMO, ARM/CART), MPE (NOAA), NEXRAD, AMSR-E, GOES, MODIS, GPM, TRMM, GOES-R, PERSIANN, NPP, NPOESS Land : SCAN (USDA), Mesonet, Producer- Cooperator NASA Land Information System (Noah, Catchment LSM) Forcing: [G|N]LDAS (NASA) using [G|E]DAS & CMAP (NCEP), AGRMET (AFWA), ECMWF, NCAR FNL, NARR, RUC Data Assimilation: EKF, EnKF Supercomputing: Project Columbia (NASA), HPC 2 (MSU) RPC Evaluation of NASA Land Information System for Application in USDA-NRCS SCAN DST air & land surface temperature, humidity, winds precipitation soil moisture, SST radiation, aerosol Soil moisture maps from 12x12 km 2 to 1x1 km 2 Sensitivity analyses using OSEs AMSR-E data assimilation OSSEs to help optimize DST network NOAA NIDIS Coupled WRF-LIS modeling applications Global/Regional scale model products (1 – 50km) soil moisture maps Longer-term outlooks Mitigate drought effects Support flood analysis Producer decision making – planting, production, disease, pest management Crop yield modeling and monitoring Improved forecasting of severe weather and climate outlook Ecological forecasting Policy decisions Partners Uncertainty Analysis and Scientific Rigor

45. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 45 Estimated Level of Effort TasksNASA (FTE) GMU (FTE) GSFC Contractor (FTE) MRC (FTE) Performance Analysis0.05-0.5 OSE / Data Assimilation0.1 0.25 OSSE0.1 0.25 ESMF-coupled WRF-LIS0.1- 0.25 Cross-cutting Demonstrations 0.05-0.1 PMW Support-0.10.25

46. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 46 Discussions?

47. RPC Preliminary Design Review (5/17/06) 47 Data RPC EVALUATIONS, V&V DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS Observations VALUE & BENEFITS EARTH SYSTEM MODELS EARTH OBSERVATIONS Predictions *Next Generation Missions Atmosphere: ground-based measurements (WMO, ARM/CART), MPE (NOAA), NEXRAD, AMSR-E, GOES, MODIS, GPM, TRMM, Cloudsat, GOES-R, PERSIANN, NPOESS Land : SCAN (USDA), Mesonet NASA Land Information System (Noah, CLM, Vic) Forcing: [G|N]LDAS (NASA) using [G|E]DAS & CMAP (NCEP), AGRMET (AFWA), ECMWF; NCAR FNL Regional Models: WRF; RAMS- AROMA, COAMPS, and RUC (for evaluations) Supercomputing: Project Columbia (NASA), HPC 2 (MSU) RPC Evaluation of NASA Land Information System for Cross-Cutting Applications air & land surface temperature, humidity, winds precipitation soil moisture, SST radiation, aerosol DHS NARAC/IMAAC at LLNL USDA USFS Firelab USDA FAS PECAD USDA NRCS SCAN & NIDIS NSSTC SERVIR Coupled WRF-LIS modeling applications EPA BASINS USBR RiverWare Global/Regional scale model products (1 – 50km) analysis, hourly & daily forecasts Longer-term outlooks Atmospheric assessment of emissions and air pollution Fire risk modeling Crop yield modeling and monitoring Improved forecasting of severe weather Ecological forecasting Policy decisions Potential Partners Uncertainty Analysis and Scientific Rigor