1. The New Product Development Process Marketing 4250 January 25, 2007

2. Stage I: Opportunity Identification and Selection

3. Opportunity Identification Motivators of the NPD Process Formal Corporate Structures Underutilized Resources New Resources Internal Mandates External Mandates

4. Challenging Inertia Do an assumption analysis List key uncertainties Opportunities appear Embrace the uncertainties with Scenario Planning 1980’s example

5. Example: Global Uncertainties (mid-80’s) Key Uncertainties Trade conflict between USA and Japan Arms negotiations between USA and USSR Spread of AIDS Impact of Europe 1992 Deterioration of ozone layer and hole Continuation of Apartheid

6. Combining 2 Key Uncertainties USA / Japan USA/ USSR Arms Race Detente AccommodationTrade Conflict Imperial Twilight Industrial Renaissance Protracted Transition X

7. A Scenario Planning Exercise Objective To sketch out strategically different futures that your organization may have to operate in Inside these different futures, focus on the concrete detail in order to identify new product opportunities

8. A Scenario Planning Exercise Instructions Get in your assigned groups Focus on the industry that you’ve been assigned and act as an organization within that industry Go through the scenario planning stages (listed on the next page), develop one of the scenarios and attempt to identify new product opportunities

9. A Scenario Planning Exercise Scenario Planning Stages I) List the main stakeholders & their interests/positions II) List the main long-term trends and assess the impact of each trend on this organization (+, 0, -, ?) III) List the past events that have surprised people in this industry. IV) Identify other key uncertainties V) Pick the 2 most important and dichotomize them (vote) VI) Fill in the matrix, pick one cell to examine in depth

10. Opportunity Identification Scenario Development Have the group members take on the roles of the different possible players in the scenario & discuss details of the situation (how specifically would your party be impacted) What new opportunities or needs emerge in this new “world”?